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Investors are trying to remain level-headed as tensions between the U.S. and Europe escalate, with many drawing on experience from Liberation Day as a tool for how to navigate current geopolitical volatility.

Analysts are, understandably, uneasy. Their concern stems from President Trump’s claim that a bevy of European nations would face new tariffs within a matter of weeks if they did not support America’s bid to purchase Greenland, currently a territory of NATO member country Denmark, which is not putting the island up for sale.

At the time of writing, the VIX volatility index is up 27% over the past five days, its highest since April last year when the Oval Office announced sweeping tariffs on every nation on the planet. While markets in the U.S. are yet to have the opportunity to react to the news after being closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, assets in Europe are looking pale.

Germany’s DAX is down 1.57% at the time of writing, London’s FTSE is down 1.4% and France’s CAC 40 is down 1.2%. Asia is similarly queasy, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 is down 1.11% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is down 0.29%. A preview for U.S. trading comes in the form of futures, with the S&P 500 trending down 1.75% at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, gold prices—a barometer for investors fleeing to safety—are climbing higher still, up 1.17% overnight.

However, the damage could have been worse: investors don’t even need to cast their minds back a year for inspiration. Markets plummeted following Trump’s Rose Garden address on April 2, his so-called Liberation Day, despite the fact many of his threatened tariffs were delayed within a matter of days. And so the ‘TACO’ trade was born: Trump Always Chickens Out.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank noted to clients this morning that there’s “room for bigger moves” in markets, and highlighted that Trump’s duties imposition on key trading partners is already on shaky ground. This is on account of an imminent Supreme Court ruling on whether the White House’s initial round of tariffs were carried out legally. This “might end up further constraining Trump’s room for maneuver on tariffs. However, no one knows when this will come through (apart from maybe the judges).”

“The market has been burnt before by overreacting to tariff threats,” Reid continued. “Obviously, there was Liberation Day but more recently Trump’s escalation with China in October prompted a -2.71% decline for the S&P 500 on that day, before he then met with Xi and the trade truce was extended by a year.”

Over at UBS, chief economist Paul Donovan described a rational market: “Investors and the U.S. administration are likely to keep focus on the U.S. bond market, which weakened modestly in the wake of Trump’s latest tariff threats. The implications of additional tariffs are more U.S. inflation pressures and a further erosion of the USD’s status as a reserve currency. So far, bond investors do not seem to be taking the threats too seriously.”

Markets also “dismissed” another barb from Trump aimed at French President Macron, over duties levied on champagne and Bordeaux if the European leader refuses to cough up $1 billion to join the Board of Peace for Gaza.

Unconvinced traders

Further evidence of TACO traders comes from Polymarket. At the time of writing, only 17% of betters believe all the tariffs Trump has threatened against Europe will go into effect on February 1. A further minority of 40% believe any tariffs will go into effect in a fortnight’s time.

Odds are also declining on a country-to-country basis. For example, Denmark leads Polymarket’s polls as the most likely country to face levies from the U.S., but that still sits as the outlying outcome at 40% and decreasing. Meanwhile France’s odds of tariffs are at 38%, and Norway is at 37%.

Potentially buoying the idea that the president will make another U-turn is political polling, especially with midterm elections approaching in November. Trump’s approval ratings have been declining across a number of outlets, with nine in 10 Americans telling a Quinnipiac survey they were against taking Greenland using military force. A further Reuters/Ipsos poll found just 17% of voters support Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland.

However, if investors—or foreign governments—rely too heavily on the notion that Trump will chicken out, they could shoot themselves in the foot. After all, if the White House sees markets behaving in a fairly stable manner, then this could give him the confidence to push ahead with the very plans that investors were betting against. As Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen framed Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline last year: “The paradox is that as markets discount the tariffs and perform strongly, that’s actually making the higher tariffs more likely as the administration grows in confidence.”



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The 9 most disruptive deals of Trump’s first year back in the White House

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January 20, 2026

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President Trump lives on deals: “That’s what I do—I do deals,” he once told Bob Woodward. On the one-year anniversary of his second presidency, he’s pushing hard to make his biggest, most disruptive deal ever, one that would bring Greenland under the control of the U.S.—and the global business community is still scrambling to adapt to his approach. Here are nine of Trump’s most unorthodox deals from the past year.

Nine deals that shook the business world

April 2, 2025: Reciprocal tariffs

Trump imposes “reciprocal tariffs” on 57 countries, with each tariff understood as an opening bid in a negotiation. Several countries have since made deals. The one-on-one negotiations, unlike the multilateral system of the past 80 years, can be chaotic for companies and economies

June 13: U.S. Steel “Golden Share”

In return for allowing Nippon Steel to buy U.S. Steel, Trump requires that the U.S. receive several powers over the company, including total power over all the board’s independent directors and vetoes over locations of offices and factories. 

July 10: MP Materials

The U.S. pays $400 million for a large equity share in MP and signs a contract to buy all of MP’s rare earth magnets for 10 years. The reason for the equity stake was not disclosed.

July 14: Nvidia, Part 1

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Trump reverses the U.S. ban on selling Nvidia H20 chips to China in exchange for Nvidia paying the U.S. 15% of the revenue.

July 23: Columbia University

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The Trump administration restores $400 million of canceled federal research funding for the university under an unprecedented multipoint deal. For example, Columbia must supply data to the federal government for all applicants, broken down by race, “color,” GPA, and standardized test performance. A few other schools later make similar deals.

August 6: Apple

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At a public appearance with Trump, CEO Tim Cook announces Apple will invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S. over four years; Trump announces Apple will be exempt from a planned tariff on imported chips that would have doubled the price of iPhones in the U.S.

August 22: Intel

Justin Sullivan—Getty Images

Intel trades the U.S. government a 9.9% equity stake in exchange for $8.9 billion that might already be owed to Intel under the CHIPS and Science Act. The deal is unusual because the company was not in immediate danger or significantly affecting the economy.

December 8: Nvidia, Part 2:

Trump reverses the U.S. ban on selling powerful Nvidia H200 chips in exchange for Nvidia paying the U.S. 25% of the revenue. Both Nvidia deals are unusual because the payments to the U.S., based on exports, appear to be forbidden by the Constitution. 

December 19: Pharma

Alex Wong—Getty Images

Nine pharmaceutical companies make deals with Trump that are intended to lower drug prices. This is unusual because Trump negotiated separate deals with each company, and the terms have not been released.

All eyes this week will be watching President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the president has hinted he’ll announce some high-stakes agreements. Expect the unexpected.

A version of this piece appears in the February/March 2026 issue of Fortune.



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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s biggest AI bubble warning yet is a challenge to the Fortune 500

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January 20, 2026

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been leading the charge on artificial intelligence (AI) for years, owing to his long alliance with OpenAI’s Sam Altman and the groundbreaking work from his own AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, particularly with the Copilot tool. But Nadella has not spoken often about the fears that rattled Wall Street for much of the back half of 2025: whether AI is a bubble. 

At the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Nadella sat for a conversation with the Forum’s interim co-chair, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, explaining that if AI growth spawns solely from investment, then that could be signs of a bubble. “A telltale sign of if it’s a bubble would be if all we are talking about are the tech firms,” Nadella said. “If all we talk about is what’s happening to the technology side then it’s just purely supply side.”

However, Nadella offers a fix to that productivity dilemma, calling on business leaders to adopt a new approach to knowledge work by shifting workflows to match the structural design of AI. “The mindset we as leaders should have is, we need to think about changing the work—the workflow—with the technology.”

Growing pains

This change is not wholly unprecedented, as Nadella pointed out, comparing the current moment to that of the 1980s, when computing revolutionized the workplace and opened up new opportunities for growth and productivity and created a new class of workers. “We invented this entire class of thing called knowledge work, where people started really using computers to amplify what we were trying to achieve using software,” he said. “I think in the context of AI, that same thing is going to happen.”

Nadella argues that AI creates a “complete inversion” of how information moves through a business, replacing slow, hierarchical processes with a view that forces leaders to rethink their organizational structures. “We have an organization, we have departments, we have these specializations, and the information trickles up,” Nadella said. “No, no, it’s actually it flattens the entire information flow. So once you start having that, you have to redesign structurally.”

That shift may be harder for some Fortune 500 companies as structural changes could be accompanied by uncomfortable growing pains. Nadella says that leaner companies will be able to more easily adopt AI because their organizational structures are fresher and more malleable. On the other hand, large companies could take time to adopt new workflows.

Despite widespread adoption of AI, the 29th edition of PwC’s global CEO survey found that only 10% to 12% of companies reported seeing benefits of the technology on the revenue or cost side, while 56% reported getting nothing out of it. It follows up on an even more pessimistic finding about AI returns from August 2025: that 95% of generative AI pilots were failing.

PwC Global Chairman Mohamed Kande spoke to Fortune’s Diane Brady in Davos about the finding that many CEOs are cautious and lack confidence at this stage of the AI adoption cycle. “Somehow AI moves so fast … that people forgot that the adoption of technology, you have to go to the basics,” he explained, with the survey finding that the companies seeing benefits from AI are “putting the foundations in place.” It’s about execution more than it is about technology, he argued, and good management and leadership are really going to matter going forward.

“For large organizations,” Nadella told Fink, “there’s a fundamental challenge: Unless and until your rate of change keeps up with what is possible, you’re going to get schooled by someone small being able to achieve scale because of these tools.”

New entrants have the advantage of “starting fresh” and constructing workflows around AI capabilities, while larger firms will have to contend with the flattening effect AI has on entire departments and specializations. 

To be sure, Nadella says that large organizations have kept an upper hand, especially when it comes to relationships, data, and know-how. However, he maintains that firms must understand how to use those resources to their advantage to change management style, then that could pose a major roadblock.

“The bottom line is, if you don’t translate that with a new production function, then you really will be stuck,” he said.



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BlackRock’s billionaire CEO warns AI could be capitalism’s next big failure after 30 years of unsustainable inequality after the Cold War

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January 20, 2026

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink opened the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, with a stark message to the global elite: AI’s unfettered growth risks pummelling the world’s working and professional classes. Beyond that, he warned that it could be capitalism’s next big failure after a 30-year reign after the Cold War that has failed to deliver for the average human being in society.

In his opening remarks on Tuesday at the gathering of thousands of executives and global leaders, the billionaire boss of the world’s largest asset manager—often called one of Wall Street’s “Masters of the Universe”—said that as those in power discuss the future of AI, they risk leaving behind the vast majority of the world, just as they have for much of the last generation.

“Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, more wealth has been created than in any time prior in human history, but in advanced economies, that wealth has accrued to a far narrower share of people than any healthy society can ultimately sustain,” Fink said.

Fink, who has used his annual BlackRock letters and annual appearances at Davos to set the agenda for a more progressive kind of capitalism, even one that is arguably “woke,” making him at times the face of ESG and of stakeholder capitalism, warned that the gains of the tremendous wealth creation since the 1990s have not been equitably shared. And the capitalist ideology driving AI development and implementation forward could come at the expense of the wage-earning majority, he added. 

“Early gains are flowing to the owners of models, owners of data and owners of infrastructure,” Fink said. “The open question: What happens to everyone else if AI does to white-collar workers what globalization did to blue-collar workers? We need to confront that today directly. It is not about the future. The future is now.” 

Fink’s past critiques of capitalism

Fink, who was appointed interim co-chair of the World Economic Forum in August 2025, replacing founder Klaus Schwab, has long espoused the reshaping of capitalism, seeing it as a responsibility of large asset managers like himself. Fink was formerly vociferous about the importance of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) investing, and has argued that climate change is reshaping finance, creating an imperative for executives to reallocate their capital to address the crisis accordingly. In a 2022 letter to investors, published the day before the Davos summit, Fink emphasized a model of “stakeholder capitalism” of a business’s mandate to serve not just shareholders, but employees, consumers, and the public.  

Fink’s new primacy in Davos is the first without Schwab, following allegations that he had expensed more than $1 million, billed to the World Economic Forum, on questionable travel spending, as well as claims of workplace misconduct and research report manipulation. The BlackRock chief emphasized the need for the gathering to demonstrate its legitimacy in part by showing that it’s concerned with more than just swelling growth of companies and countries, but also the economic welfare of its employees and citizens.

“Many of the people most affected by what we talk about here will never come to this conference,” Fink said. “That’s a central tension of this forum. Davos is an elite gathering trying to shape a world that belongs to everyone.”

Though BlackRock announced in early 2025 it would roll back many of the diversity, equity, and inclusion goals it created a few years before, Fink has once again used his spotlight to call on leaders to transform their capitalist sensibilities, this time in how they imagine the AI future.

The cost of the AI boom

Last year capped an explosion of growth in the AI sector, with Morningstar analysts finding a group of 34 AI stocks, including Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft, shot up 50.8% in 2025. AI firms and investors have seen their wealth skyrocket in the past year, with Per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the median increase in net worth last year was nearly $10 billion among the 50 wealthiest Americans. Google co-founder Larry Page and Sergey Brin, for example, got $101 billion and $92 billion richer, respectively, in 2025.

The BlackRock CEO noted these gains, however, have been reserved for the richest few, alluding to a K-shaped economy of the rich getting richer, while the poor continue to struggle: The bottom half of Americans, in short, are not cashing in on the AI race. Although Fink didn’t get into the politics of utilities setting electricity prices, it seems the poor are actually paying higher bills to support the data centers powering the AI boom. According to Federal Reserve data, the poorer demographic owns about 1% of stock market wealth, translating to about 165 million people owning $628 billion in stock. Conversely, the top 1% of wealthiest households own nearly 50% of corporate equity.

Fink’s framing of the post-Cold War era as one of exploding inequality represents a mainstreaming of a once niche view that has become increasingly mainstream in the 21st century. While the triumph of the west over communism was seen as the ultimate victory for capitalism, as epitomized by Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man, history has in fact continued. The unprecedented rise of China as an economic superpower, through its fusion of socialism and capitalism “with Chinese characteristics,” has complicated the narrative, as has the inequality alluded to by Fink. 

An internal critic of the post-Cold War world order is Andrew Bacevich, a military veteran and historian who likened the collapse  of the Soviet Union in 1989 as “akin to removing the speed limiter from an internal combustion engine.” Bacevich’s 2020 book The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory, was an early articulation of the once niche viewpoint that Fink lent support to on Tuesday.

What AI’s growth means for workers

Similarly, the risks of the AI boom on workers extends beyond who has a stake in the technology industry’s growth. Nobel laureate and “godfather of AI” Geoffrey Hinton has previously warned this explosion of wealth for the few will come at the expense of white-collar workers, who will be displaced by the technology.

“What’s actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers,” Hinton said in September. “It’s going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits. It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer. That’s not AI’s fault, that is the capitalist system.”

Some companies have already leaned into culling headcount to grow profits, including enterprise-software firm IgniteTech. CEO Eric Vaughan laid off nearly 80% of his staff in early 2023, according to figures reviewed by Fortune. Vaughan said the reductions happened during an inflection point in the tech industry, where failure to efficiently adopt AI could be fatal for a company. He’s since rehired for all of those roles, and he would make the same choice again today, he told Fortune.

According to Fink, sustaining a white-collar workforce will depend on the world’s most powerful people creating an actionable plan that will defy the critiques of capitalism that has, so far, stood to predominantly benefit them.

“Now with abstractions about the jobs of tomorrow, but with a credible plan for broad participation in these gains, this is going to be the test,” Fink said. “Capitalism can evolve to turn more people into owners of growth, instead of spectators watching it happen.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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