Fans of brands as varied as Le Creuset, Elf Beauty, Michaels Cos. and the Miami Heat can make a gamble: Spend some nominal amount of money to get merchandise worth much more. The catch? Shoppers don’t know what they’re getting until they open the box- a phenomenon known as “mystery” or “blind” shopping.

“It’s gamified commerce,” said Shreyas Sekar, assistant professor of operations management at the University of Toronto Scarborough, who has closely tracked the rise of blind boxes. The practice, long popular in parts of Asia, has spread to the US, UK, and Canada over the last three or four years, Sekar said, with more new companies jumping on the trend each year.  

It’s partly thanks to Labubus, the wildly popular furry dolls that come in blind-box packaging. Their growth among US consumers, Sekar said, has served as a proof of concept for the viability of mystery shopping in markets outside of Asia. Pop Mart International Group, the Chinese company that owns Labubu, reported revenue in the Americas surged nearly 1,300% in the latest quarter.

Now, other retailers are realising they too can drive buzz- and at times offload unwanted merchandise- by playing up the secrecy angle. 

Blind boxes are “a chance to gamble on getting something great,” said Jackie Mitchell, a 28-year-old social media influencer, in an interview. Last year, she recorded herself opening a Le Creuset mystery box she bought at the brand’s event in Columbus, Ohio. She estimated her haul- two plates, a skillet and a cast iron Dutch oven- was worth more than $600. To be eligible to buy the $50 box, she had to buy a $25  VIP ticket to the event and spend at least $150 there. 

But as with any gamble, it doesn’t come without risk. Like the kid who receives a sweater instead of Legos for his birthday, shoppers at times have been disappointed by the contents of the boxes. And many of them air their grievances on social media. 

Le Creuset faced customers’ frustration after selling mystery boxes at an event in Hartford, Connecticut. One TikTok content creator, who identifies herself as Linda from Buffalo, posted multiple videos criticizing the brand for what she said were lower values of mystery box merchandise from  the event.

“The value of the boxes in everywhere else in the US was over that $675 amount, for the most part,” she said in one video. “And when it got to the Hartford event, $300.”

Le Creuset apologised to customers, acknowledging the event and mystery boxes “did not live up to expectations.” It called on customers who “received a mystery box below the guaranteed $300 value, or damaged product” to contact the company directly “to make things right.”

The company didn’t respond to a request for comment from Bloomberg. 

Despite the risks, mystery boxes are showing up everywhere, from craft beer retailers to sports merchandise. Elf started selling six cosmetic mystery bundles, each with five to eight items, in early November, with the company advertising savings up to 50% off the normal price of the products included. The boxes contained bestselling items rather than “leftovers,” according to chief brand officer Laurie Lam. One of the kits sold out a week after launching. 

“It was undeniable that we saw blind boxes take off,” Lam said, adding that “Pop Mart was a factor.” 

The boxes are even showing up in food service. Cava offered “blind-bagged plushies” modelled after its pita chip flavours with its limited-time hot harissa meal last year. The surprise and collectability factor gave customers a reason to visit in-person, according to chief experience marketing officer Andy Rebhun. Cava had to rush to restock and ultimately sold more than 33,000 plushies and meals, with some guests purchasing specifically for the collectible.

“The trend works in the food and restaurant space when it’s not shoehorned in,” Rebhun said. He added that the trend may push “brands to think creatively about how to turn meals into experiences.” 

It’s unclear how long mystery boxes will remain hot with shoppers, but they’ve emerged as a useful tool for companies that want to pare down their inventories. Brands should be sure to communicate with consumers, however, to set expectations, says Sarah Williams, who has built a business as a mystery and subscription box coach.

“You want to get that inventory off your shelves and back into the bank account,” Williams said. “My biggest advice is transparency- if it’s overstock, I’m going to put that in the description.”

Since starting her blind-box consulting business around 2020, Williams says she has coached over 7,000 clients. She’s also been running her own subscription-box service from Texas for the last nine years. The boxes often follow a theme- such as “teachers tees” or “Christmas clearance.” Contents range from custom shirts and mugs with inspirational quotes to tumblers and jewellery. 

“When I put my boxes together, I make sure to include something of equal value in each box so no one is truly disappointed,” she said. “You want them to feel excited and like they got a good deal.”

Kaylie Wall, who owns a Barre3 fitness studio in Carlsbad, California, said she used mystery bags during the holidays to help reduce excess merchandise that built up this year, especially $22 grip socks that are required for classes. In November, she created about 20 bundles, classified by size, each with three pairs of socks for $33 as part of the location’s three-year anniversary sale.

Some customers were sceptical, but others were curious, she said. A couple of them made unboxing videos to share with friends. 

“It’s basically a way to get rid of merchandise we’ve had for a long time,” Wall said. “I’m definitely not going to order as many Christmas socks this year.”