Good morning. The U.S. economy closed out 2025 with a puzzling mix: sluggish job growth alongside accelerating productivity.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December 2025, missing the 73,000 Dow Jones estimate and slowing from November’s revised gain of 56,000. November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 jobs, while October’s loss deepened to 173,000 from 105,000. For 2025 as a whole, payrolls grew by an average of 49,000 jobs per month, down sharply from 168,000 in 2024.
Bank of America Global Research analysts wrote in a report on Friday that although payroll growth has slowed since June, the unemployment rate has risen by only about 11 basis points. The report noted, “We have been highlighting that tighter immigration restrictions are likely to play a bigger role in the slowdown in job growth this year.”
The unemployment rate is a key statistic for the Fed, and markets responded to Friday’s miss by pricing out a January rate cut, according to the analysts. Futures now imply less than half a cut priced in through April, which marks the end of Powell’s term.
The productivity factor
Despite weak job growth, forecasts still point to solid overall economic expansion. I asked Gregory Daco, EY chief economist, how the U.S. economy can continue to grow strongly while hiring softens.
“We’re seeing a clear decoupling between growth and hiring,” Daco said. Output is still expanding, but companies are generating that growth with fewer incremental workers and fewer hours.
“Productivity has rebounded meaningfully as businesses continue to streamline operations, automate processes, and extract more output from existing teams in a high-cost, high-interest-rate environment,” Daco explained. “This isn’t AI-led in a narrow sense yet—it’s the payoff from multi-year efficiency drives, tighter cost discipline, and delayed hiring.”
According to the BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, as output rose 5.4% while hours worked increased just 0.5%.
Areas of job growth
Where job growth has occurred, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend higher in December, adding 27,000 jobs. The sector added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2025, roughly in line with the 11,000 average monthly gain in 2024.
Health care employment also continued its upward trend in December, rising by 21,000 jobs, including a gain of 16,000 in hospitals. Health care added an average of 34,000 jobs per month in 2025, down from an average monthly increase of 56,000 in 2024.
Monster’s newly released 2026 Job Market Outlook also reflects these pockets of strength. Based on full-year 2025 job posting and job seeker data, the report shows employer demand remaining firm in health care, essential services, infrastructure-related roles, and skill-based jobs, even as other parts of the labor market slow.
‘Hiring hasn’t stopped’
As private payroll growth weakened throughout 2025 and hiring appetites diminished, I asked Daco whether he expects that trend to continue amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related risks
“Yes—barring a material improvement in policy clarity, I expect hiring restraint to persist,” he said. Private payroll growth has already slowed sharply as firms shift into cost-control mode, with geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, and elevated financing costs reinforcing that bias, he explained.
“Hiring hasn’t stopped, but it has become more selective and more conditional on clear demand visibility,” Daco added. “In this environment, CFOs are likely to continue favoring efficiency, automation, and capex discipline over broad-based workforce expansion.”
*Quick note: “The Data Imperative: Reinventing Finance with AI,” is the next Emerging CFO webinar which will take place Tuesday, Jan. 27 at 11 a.m. ET. Join Fortune, in partnership with Workday, for a timely discussion featuring Adobe’s CFO Dan Durn, and additional speakers to be announced, that will offer firsthand insights and practical strategies from leaders shaping AI-driven finance transformation. You can register for the event here. Email us at CFOCollaborative@Fortune.com with any questions.
Leaderboard
Young Kim was appointed CFO and chief operating officer at Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BMNR) effective immediately. Kim has more than 20 years of experience. From 2021 to 2025, he served as partner and senior portfolio manager at Axiom Investors, following a decade as senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments from 2011 to 2021. Earlier in his career, Kim held roles across investment research, venture capital, business development, and software engineering.
Jimmi Sue Smith is retiring from her position as CFO of Koppers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KOP) effective Jan. 5. Smith will continue to serve as treasurer, as well as in an advisory role, to assist with a transition through Feb. 28. Bradley Pearce, chief accounting officer, will serve as interim CFO and still perform his current role while an external search is conducted to identify a permanent successor.
Big Deal
The latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that large U.S. corporate bankruptcies rose to one of the highest monthly totals in five years in December 2025, with filings increasing to 72 from 63 in November. This uptick extended the 15-year high for annual filings first set in November, bringing the total to 785 for the year—the highest since 2010. Rising interest rates have been a significant factor, as many companies struggled to refinance their debt, according to the report.
The data covers companies with public debt and at least $2 million in assets or liabilities, as well as private companies with at least $10 million in assets or liabilities at the time of filing.
Courtesy of S&P Global Market Intelligence
Going deeper
“Powell blasts DOJ criminal probe as attack on Fed independence. ‘Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats’” is a Fortune article by Jason Ma.
He writes: “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a statement on Sunday that the Justice Department served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment over his testimony before the Senate last June related to renovations on the headquarters, which has seen cost overruns. Powell, who is typically cautious in his public remarks, was clear that the probe was political in nature and had nothing to do with the Fed renovations or his testimony, dismissing them as ‘pretexts.'” Read the complete article here.
Overheard
“After more than two decades of declining well-being for most middle- and low-income households, it is clear that structural reforms are needed to bring costs back in line with wages.”
—Gene Ludwig, former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, and chairman of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, and Shannon Meyer, a research analyst at the Ludwig Institute, write in a Fortune opinion piece titled, “Millions of Americans are grappling with years of declining economic wellbeing and affordability needs a rethink.”
The U.S. economy is a slightly steadier ship than many had expected heading into 2026, but with the labor market looking increasingly shaky, even one of the most optimistic demographics of the past year is starting to feel down.
U.S. consumer sentiment may have risen slightly in recent weeks, according to preliminary findings from the University of Michigan’s January Consumer Sentiment Survey released Friday. Its index rose to 54 from 52.9 last month. The improvement stems from “gradually receding” worries about the effects of tariffs, according to a statement, as year-ahead inflation expectations remained at their lowest level since January of last year.
But the uptick in positivity was tempered by declining faith in labor markets, particularly sensitive for high-income households, said Joanne Hsu, an economist who directs the university’s research surveys. As the job market’s “no-hire, no-fire” regime of the past year shows signs of wavering, pessimism is starting to creep into America’s upper echelons.
“While labor market expectations have essentially held steady for lower income consumers, higher income consumers have seen quite a bit of deterioration,” Hsu told Fortune. “Higher income, higher educated consumers are just showing increased worries about what’s happening in labor markets.”
While Hsu stressed that consumer confidence has declined across the board, and that the December results are only preliminary and will be updated with a final release later this month, earlier findings reported that consumer sentiment declined steeply among high earners throughout 2025. The survey sorts replies into three groups by income level, with the highest third of U.S. incomes sorted into the survey’s highest tercile. Between January and November last year, consumer sentiment among the lowest and middle terciles of American household income fell 29.8% and 27.6%, respectively, while the country’s highest third of earners suffered a steeper 32.1% decline.
Job security anxieties fuel declining sentiment
While most Americans dealt with inflation and rising prices for housing, food, and electricity over the past year, high earners, who are more likely to own stocks, may have been somewhat insulated. After the U.S. stock market hit record highs and posted double-digit gains, the top 10% of households walked away with trillions in new wealth created last year. The discrepancy led to what some economists termed a “K-shaped economy,” with appreciating assets benefiting wealthy consumers at the top, and mounting inflation and tariff headaches causing pain at the bottom.
In the University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment report, Hsu noted that an outlier in declining sentiment could be found among consumers in the largest tercile of stock holdings, for whom optimism had risen 11% that month.
But that cheeriness might be starting to wear off. In December, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 50,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The U.S. economy added only 584,000 jobs last year, down from 2 million in 2024, and posted the weakest job growth year outside a recession since the early 2000s.
A weakening labor market spells trouble for white-collar workers. In these sectors, while unemployment hasn’t surged, hiring has essentially been frozen for the past year, especially for entry-level roles, as firms juggle worries over economic uncertainty and AI fears. Anxiety over job loss is rife among white-collar employees, and those concerns might now be manifesting in the data.
In the latest University of Michigan report, worries about job stability in the next five years and earning potential were “particularly elevated” among higher-income and higher-educated consumers, Hsu said.
Other surveys have reported similar findings in recent weeks. Fears of joblessness in the next year were highest among the highest-earning individuals last summer, according to an August survey by the New York Federal Reserve. And last week, research firm Morning Consult reported a 10.5-point decline in sentiment among consumers earning more than $100,000 a year.
“Consumer sentiment looks like it is starting to fall, particularly for high-income Americans who started to experience weaker labor-market conditions at the end of December,” John Leer, Morning Consult’s chief economist, said in an interview with MarketWatch.
As companies shed staffers and hiring stagnates, thousands of Gen Zers are abandoning the dream that an elite degree will land them a six-figure, cushy office job. While blue-collar work has become an attractive, stable career for some, a swath of young professionals is flocking to education amid uncertainty.
Over the past three years, Teach for America (TFA), an education non-profit, experienced a 43% surge in incoming corps members (full-time teachers), according to the organization’s data, confirmed by Fortune. This school year, Teach For America welcomed 2,300 new corps members as the teacher shortage persists and Gen Z embraces the profession. It’s a rare bright spot in a job market increasingly short on entry-level roles.
There has also been a renewed Gen Z interest in Teach for America jobs after years of waning applications; from 2013 to 2016, the organization faced declining recruitment into the program, according to Chalkbeat. In 2013, TFA received a record high of 57,226 candidates, but the figure dwindled by 23% three years later as the economy boomed. However, the recent flood of Gen Z workers into the education non-profit could reflect broader attitudes towards work and an uncertain labor market. Teach For America experienced a 40% surge in applications in 2009—in the wake of the U.S. financial crisis—according to the National Council on Teacher Quality.
Teach for America’s chief growth and program officer, Whitney Petersmeyer, toldThe Guardian there was a connection between the applicant surge and job disruptions. Other than flocking to education careers because they’re “craving human connection and experiences that feel real,” Gen Zers are also looking for practical jobs. The young workers see teaching as a career path that is better shielded from what employment challenges lie ahead, and are “responding to the opportunity for purpose and responsibility at a time where many entry jobs feel uncertain or disconnected from impact,” Petersmeyer noted.
“We know that members of Gen Z are eager to have real impact, and they’re seeking connection and community in their careers, and our applicants are finding those opportunities through TFA,” Petersmeyer tells Fortune. “They’re seeking exposure to careers where they can create real impact while gaining the skills to thrive in the emerging economy.”
Teach for America’s program: how to get in, salary, and benefits
The Teach for America corps is a full-time, paid opportunity for young educators to get their foot in the classroom door. The two-year leadership role funnels talent into positions at under-resourced K-12 schools—and allows hires to choose their placement across 40 U.S. locations.
Salaries can range from $32,000 to $72,000, depending on the region, and benefits include health insurance, retirement benefits, a $3,000 to $6,500 summer training stipend, needs-based grants, and access to graduate school scholarships. In addition to the perks, Teach for America says it offers lifelong career support, including exclusive partnerships with top employers, scholarships, career accelerators, career coaching, and mentorship.
There are only a few requirements to get into the program: a perfect opportunity for early-career Gen Zers with fairly blank resumes. At a minimum, talent must have a bachelor’s degree from an accredited university with a cumulative GPA of at least 2.5, and the organization says it has no preference for specific majors or backgrounds. Job-seekers also must be a U.S. citizen, national, lawful permanent resident, or EAD (Employment Authorization Document) holder.
Despite having very few requirements, it’s still no cake walk to get into the program. Teach For America has boasted competitive acceptance rates over the years; in 2010, it accepted just 13% of 46,000 candidates, and in 2013, it hired only 14% of around 57,000 applicants.
Disillusioned Gen Zers are turning to education
White-collar jobs aren’t as plentiful as they once were, as AI optimization and pandemic-era overhiring drag down the number of open roles. Last November, job openings fell to about 7.1 million, a sharp decline from October and nearly 900,000 positions lower than the year before. And across 2025 altogether, headcounts only grew by an average of 49,000 jobs per month—a steep drop from 168,000 monthly in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As the labor market lags and six-figure dreams have been dashed, Gen Zers are turning to fulfilling careers—and education makes the top of the list.
About 9 in 10 Gen Zers consider a sense of purpose important to their job satisfaction—even ranking it above pay—according to a 2025 report from Deloitte. And teaching can offer just that, including job security; the education sector is the fastest-growing industry in the U.K., according to a 2024 LinkedIn analysis. Roles including teachers, lecturers, and learning support assistants have particularly taken off as “being some of the most sought-after roles,” LinkedIn’s career expert Charlotte Davies told Fortune last year.
It’s a welcome change as Gen Z high school students’ interest in studying education in college had been on the decline for around a decade, according to a 2024 study from SREB. Education has long been seen as an incredibly tough, low-paying profession, with 77% of teachers reporting that their job is frequently stressful, and 88% calling it overwhelming, according to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey. The career can be tough, and more than half of educators “would not advise a young person starting out today to become a teacher.” Yet the profession has exactly what Gen Z is looking for: purpose in their work.
Despite the headaches and long days, around 67% of public and private school teachers feel a strong sense of purpose and hope when thinking about the future, according to a 2025 Morning Consult and EdChoice poll. And the profession is looking to hire—there were 41,920 unfilled teacher positions across 30 U.S. states in 2024, according to the Learning Policy Institute. Plus, at least 406,964 education positions were vacant or filled by teachers not fully certified for their assignments—about 1 in 8 of all teaching positions across America.
Now more than ever, it’s difficult to know what makes candidates in a competitive labor market. While layoffs and unemployment remain low at the start of this year, jobseekers face an uphill battle as AI eliminates entry-level roles and employers added just 50,000 jobs in December. One founder says more than technical skills, being a good person is the quality that makes job candidates more appealing to hire.
Leila Hormozi, founder and CEO of Acquistion.com, said she learned her guiding principle for hiring from the Ritz-Carlton. Their philosophy is: “We don’t hire people who know how to make beds. We hire people that are good people,” she said in a video on Instagram to her 1.2 million followers.
“Our process was to hire the right people. Not just hire people but select people and then orient them, not just put them to work but orient them to our thinking,” said Ritz Carlton Hotel Company cofounder Horst Schulze, reflecting on how the global chain developed their high standard, in a 2019 interview with Chief Executive.
Hormozi says she echoes this philosophy: “I want to hire people who have the natural traits that I just need to give them the technical skills.” Hormozi cofounded Acquisition.com with her husband, Alex, in 2021. Before starting the private investment and advisory firm, Hormozi worked as personal trainer and launched fitness companies Gym Launch and Prestige Labs, and a software company ALAN. By 28, her net worth passed $100 million, she says. Acquisition.com now has a $200M+ portfolio and partners with companies to scale and grow business.
“Your business is only as strong as the people you pick to lead it. The fastest way to destroy your business is to hire the wrong people.” Hormozi wrote in a caption on Instagram.
Some leaders “have it backwards,” she added. “People overvalue technical skills and undervalue social and emotional skills.”
As AI masters technical skills used in administrative, human resources, finance, and logistics jobs, soft skills such as adaptability and creative and analytical thinking are growing in demand, according to research from LinkedIn. People with strong foundational skills, such as collaboration, adaptability, and basic math skills typically learn faster and acquire more complex skills over time, one 2025 Harvard study about about long-term performance and advancement shows.
Other business leaders share Hormozi’s philosophy.
“My advice to people would be critical thinking, learn skills, learn your EQ [emotional quotient], learn how to be good in a meeting, how to communicate, how to write,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said last month. “You’ll have plenty of jobs.”
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has also long advocated for empathy and emotional intelligence as foundational skills in the workplace.
“IQ has a place, but it’s not the only thing that is needed in the world,” Nadella said in an interview with Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner in November. “And I’ve always felt at least as leaders, if you just have IQ without EQ, it’s just a waste of IQ.”