But the question being debated was how to talk about possible job cuts in relation to AI. “I’d rather focus on AI than falling demand,” one attendee said. “At least you look ahead of the curve instead of behind it.”

Last year, U.S. employers explicitly blamed AI for 55,000 of the 1.17 million job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That’s fewer than 5% of layoffs. AI is not yet the bête noire nor the magic elixir that people have made it out to be. (Forgive the mixed metaphors there; proof of a human at the helm.) In August, MIT released a study that found 95% of generative AI pilots fail to generate meaningful return.

And yet we’re all hearing predictions about how AI is going to impact jobs, from gutting knowledge work to creating an army of AI-enhanced humans who will achieve more in 5 hours than most of us do in 5 days. If my dinner conversation is anything to go by, leaders are quite happy to stoke that debate. Here’s why:

It motivates employees. The prospect of AI can spark both fear and fascination. In either case, talking about it externally and internally is a great way to get people motivated to learn about it. The productivity boost, especially in areas like coding, can be significant. Tying it to job cuts is code for telling everyone to learn it.

It can excite investors. UPS stock jumped 8% the day that CEO Carol Tomé announced 48,000 jobs had been cut in “the most significant strategic shift” in company history. Research from the IMF, Deloitte and others confirm that public companies are quicker to resort to layoffs than their private counterparts. “I think it’s too early to quantify,” one dinner attendee told me, “but AI impacts how we think about hiring and firing.”

It focuses the mind. With geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, climate risk and general concerns about the U.S. economy, leaders have a lot of variables to juggle when deciding what to do next. Being on the cusp of a new era of innovation can simplify some of those choices. As one person put it: “I don’t know what’s going to happen in Venezuela but I do know I have to invest in AI.”

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

Powell under investigation

The U.S. attorney’s office in D.C. has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over renovations to the Fed’s headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the scope of the work. In a response, Powell acknowledged that the Fed had been served subpoenas, questioned the motive, and vowed to continue his job “without political fear or favor.” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte is reportedly behind the probe; he’s used the usually staid agency to investigate foes of President Donald Trump for mortgage fraud. 

Possible U.S. action against Iran

Protests in Iran continued over the weekend, as did the government’s crackdown on demonstrators, with human rights groups reporting that hundreds have been killed in the unrest. The Trump administration is considering how to respond; military, cyber, and economic measures are all on the table. President Trump says Tehran has proposed talks as the administration weighs its options. 

Trump targets Exxon

President Trump has threatened to sideline Exxon Mobil on future Venezuela oil projects for “playing too cute.” In a Friday meeting between Trump and oil company executives, Exxon CEO Darren Woods called the Venezuelan market “uninvestable” in its current state, a comment that seemed to draw Trump’s ire. 

CEO who laid off employees that rejected AI would do it again

IgniteTech CEO Eric Vaughan laid off almost 80% of his employees two years ago because they wouldn’t adopt AI. He told Fortune it was “extremely difficult” but would do it again.

Tariff removal could boost jobs

In a social media post over the weekend, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi argued that the removal of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs would be “the fastest way to boost the job market.” A decision from the Supreme Court on the legality of the tariffs is expected any day now.

How a cap on credit card rates would play out

President Trump indicated his support for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates late last week. Some experts say doing so would soften credit card rewards programs and make accessing credit hard for those with lower credit scores.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were down 0.7% this morning. The last session closed up 0.65%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.23% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down o.o9% in early trading. Japan markets were closed. China’s CSI 300 was up o.65%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.84% to reach a record high. India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.42%. Bitcoin was at $90K.

Around the watercooler

CEO coach to the Fortune 500: The most powerful way to tackle 2026 is assuming you’ll live till 130 by Bill Hoogterp

As U.S. debt soars past $38 trillion, the flood of corporate bonds is a growing threat to the Treasury supply by Jason Ma

AI adoption isn’t an easy way to cut jobs—or easy at all, Wharton professor says: ‘The key thing … is just how much work is involved in doing it’ by Nick Lichtenberg

L’Oreal exec tells Gen Z to be that person who grabs their manager’s coffee—instead of making you look junior, she says it can get you noticed by Orianna Rosa Royle

Netflix’s $82.7 billion rags-to-riches story: How the a DVD-by-mail company swallowed Hollywood by Natalie Jarvey

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman and Lee Clifford.

On Sunday, Powell revealed that the DOJ served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment over his testimony before the Senate last June related to renovations on the headquarters, which has seen cost overruns.

He called the allegations a pretext and said the investigation was really aimed at the Fed’s ability to set interest rates without political pressure. Trump has attacked Powell for much of the last year over his reluctance to cut rates, though the president said he didn’t know about the DOJ probe.

But Republican Sen. Them Tillis agreed with Powell’s assessment and instead pointed the finger at the DOJ.

“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” he wrote in a post on X. “It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”

Tillis sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed and would vote on anyone Trump tries to put on the central bank.

Powell’s term as chair expires in May, and Trump has said he already has someone in mind to replace him who will lower rates further. But the DOJ investigation into Powell could blow up that process.

“I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved,” Tillis said.

While Powell’s term as chair expires in May, his term as a member of the Fed board of governors expires in 2028. When prior Fed chairs have stepped down, they typically have resigned from the board as well. Powell could choose to stay to preserve the Fed’s independence.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat who also sits on the Senate Banking Committee, accused Trump of trying to force Powell off the Fed board “to complete his corrupt takeover of our central bank.”

“He is abusing the law like a wannabe dictator so the Fed serves him and his billionaire friends,” she added. “The Senate must not move ANY Trump Fed nominee.”

The New York Times report breaking news of the investigation and Powell’s subsequent disclosure rattled markets, reviving fears that years of President Donald Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve could now be realized into a direct assault on its independence.

Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 led the decline, falling about 0.8%, as interest-rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.5%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell about 0.4%, according to late-evening pricing.

Investors sought protection in the traditional safe-haven assets. Gold futures rose 1.7% to around $4,578 an ounce, while silver jumped more than 4%, reflecting renewed demand for protection against political and monetary instability. The U.S. dollar weakened modestly against several major currencies, including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

After years of largely staying silent while Trump repeatedly mocked and threatened him, Powell appeared to have reached a breaking point, issuing a rare and pointed statement. 

He wrote that while “No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law,” the attack should be seen in the “the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.” 

“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings…Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

Economists warn that if the executive branch successfully co-opts the Fed, it could create a “self-fulfilling prophecy” of higher long-term inflation.

As Oxford Economics recently noted, any “cracks in the Fed’s independence” could spread rapidly through markets and ultimately raise borrowing costs for the businesses the administration seeks to protect with low interest rates. 

In a note published last July, when Trump publicly threatened to fire Powell, Deutsche Bank warned that such a move could spark severe market disruption.

“Both the currency and the bond market can collapse,” the bank wrote, citing heightened risks of inflation and financial instability. “The empirical and academic evidence on the impact of a loss of central-bank independence is fairly clear.”

Wall Street executives have echoed those concerns. Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America, said recently the erosion of Fed independence would carry serious consequences.

“The market will punish people if we don’t have an independent Fed,” Moynihan said.