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The price of oil (as measured by Brent crude) fell nearly 2% overnight as traders digested the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the capture of its dictator, Nicolás Maduro. Perhaps counterintuitively, they concluded that this would not have much effect on the price of oil—at least in the short term.

U.S. oil company stocks jumped up sharply in overnight trading. Chevron was up 7.82% premarket, Halliburton was up 8.45%, ConocoPhillips rose 7.54%, and ExxonMobil climbed 3.95%.

That, again, was something of a surprise, given that the potential for extra supply from Venezuela—assuming President Donald Trump gets the cooperation he wants from Maduro’s successor—would presumably be more likely to suppress U.S. oil prices than raise them.

The reality is that although Venezuela has vast reserves—about 17% of the entire planet’s oil is under Venezuelan soil—its production is feeble. Production declined by 75% between 2013 and 2020, according to the Financial Times, after successive Chavismo regimes nationalized the oil companies there, kicked out foreign oil drilling expertise, and triggered a flight of its own drilling specialists. It now supplies less than 1% of daily global oil supply.  

TradingEconomics.com

In order to tap the full potential of Venezuelan oil, U.S companies would need cast-iron guarantees that their assets there would not be renationalized; that they would be allowed to commercialize what they find; and that they would be free to explore Venezuela’s Orinoco oil belt for wells. The logistics are formidable and would require billions in investment and years of building to complete.

In that context, traders were in a decidedly risk-on mood this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 0.29%, after markets rose strongly in Asia and Europe. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.45% in early trading; Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.97%, and the South Korea KOSPI was up 3.43%. Even Bitcoin is having a good day—it’s at $92.7K this morning after spending much of the Christmas period in the $80K band.

Likewise, following Trump’s renewed threat to invade Greenland, investors piled into defense stocks globally. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall was up 7.4% before lunch in Europe; Sweden’s Saab AB (aircraft, not cars!) was up 5.75%; and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries was up 8.39%.

The private sector is already on maneuvers. One former Chevron exec is raising a $2 billion fund for Venezuelan oil projects while Charles Myers, chairman of Signum Global Advisors, said he wants to visit Venezuela in March.

It’s a rare good day for the U.S. dollar, too. “Today’s initial reaction has been to send the dollar higher,” ING analyst Chris Turner told clients this morning. “The initial market reaction to Saturday’s extraordinary events in Venezuela has been a modest flight to quality, where gold and the Swiss franc are bid, and the dollar has found some support, too. The dollar was up 0.32% on the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (which compares the USD to a basket of major foreign currencies) despite being down by 9% over the last 12 months. Oil contracts are settled in dollars, so when the market is particularly active or volatile the demand for dollars goes up, strengthening the greenback against others.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.29% this morning. The last session closed up 0.19%.
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.45% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.2% in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.97%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.9%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 3.43%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.3% 
  • Bitcoin rose to $92.7K.
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The U.S. naval blockade of Venezuela has cost $700 million already—and is rising by $9 million daily

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The ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Venezuelan has cost an estimated $700 million and counting with two more oil tankers seized Jan. 7, as President Donald Trump aims to sell more Venezuelan crude oil to American refineries and convince U.S. oil companies to return to embattled nation.

Operating the USS Gerald R. Ford and its aircraft carrier strike group costs more than $9 million per day—adjusted for inflation—since being ordered to Latin American waters in October, according to a prior report from the Center for a New American Security. Those costs do not account for the boat strikes that began in late August—killing more than 100 people thus far—or the Jan. 4 attacks in Venezuela that resulted in the arrests of leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

Trump has argued the U.S. does not want a prolonged occupation so long as Maduro’s vice president and now-acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, defers to the U.S. And he is pushing for U.S. oil companies to work in Venezuela to rebuild the dilapidated industry and get oil and dollars flowing again.

The White House did not refute the financial numbers of the blockade nor provide additional information, with spokesperson Anna Kelly saying in a statement that Maduro’s arrest saves American lives, stops the flow of drugs and criminals, initiates a deterrence in the Western Hemisphere, and creates economic opportunities for Venezuelans and Americans.

 David Goldwyn, Atlantic Council fellow and State Department special envoy for international energy affairs in the Obama administration, told Fortune that Trump is operating with an “incoherent strategy.”

“A lot has been spent, and little has been gained,” Goldwyn said. “It’s really hard to see what the upside is. Maduro has been removed, but the rest of the regime are all still in place.”

“The prize he’s trying to manufacture of special access to resources for U.S. companies seems to be unwelcome by most.”

Indeed, Trump is scheduled to meet Jan. 9 with oil executives, including leaders from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips. The companies did not respond to requests for comment.

Chevron is the only American oil company operating in Venezuela—under a special license—producing nearly 20% of the country’s oil.

Trump argued the American oil companies are “ready to go in” and spend billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and dramatically increase the flow of oil to bring revenues back to Venezuela and the U.S.

But the reality is different. Once a major player churning out nearly 4 million barrels of oil daily, Venezuela’s volumes have plunged from 3.2 million barrels daily in 2000 down to fewer than 1 million barrels today from a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment, and escalating U.S. sanctions. More than doubling Venezuela’s current oil production likely would take until 2030 and cost about $110 billion, said research firm Rystad Energy.

Apart from Chevron, U.S. companies have previously expressed reservations about returning because of the political instability, high costs, and weaker oil prices. ConocoPhillips and Exxon are still owed billions of dollars from Venezuela from the 2007 expropriation of their assets resulting international tribunal rulings.

“We’ve been expropriated from Venezuela two different times. We’d have to see what the economics look like,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods told Bloomberg in November. “We have our history there.”

How Trump plans to profit from Venezuelan oil

In the meantime, Trump said on social media the U.S. will take between 30 million and 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude over time to sell from the United States. The proceeds would be controlled by the White House, although the details remained vague.

Presumably, more oil would be sold to U.S. refineries that are configured to process the heavy grade of crude that comes from Venezuela, and Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA would receive most of the proceeds.

Depending on the number of barrels—and based on the current benchmark price for oil in the U.S.—that much oil could be worth between $1.6 billion and $2.8 billion.

PDVSA confirmed in a Jan. 7 statement that it is negotiating with the U.S. in a framework similar to those with Chevron and other international companies. “PDVSA ratifies its commitment to continue building alliances that promote national development in favor of the Venezuelan people and that contribute to global energy security.”

The effort implies the U.S. will auction the oil barrels through the U.S. Department of Energy and hold the proceeds in escrow as leverage for Venezuelan cooperation, said Matt Reed, vice president of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports. Most recently, about 80% of Venezuelan oil exports went to China and nearly 15% to the U.S.

“It sounds like a twist on the old, UN ‘oil for food’ program that allowed Iraq to sell oil but only tap revenue for essential goods like food and medicine. The difference this time is that Washington will decide where the oil goes. U.S. refiners will probably get priority depending on Gulf Coast demand,” Reed said. “It’s unclear how or whether the US will profit from this. Rather, Washington is counting on this leverage to twist arms in Caracas.”

As for the Trump oil summit with executives, Reed said, “Washington can offer incentives but only Caracas can convince American firms to take the plunge and invest over the long term.”



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Lonely staff at a major pharmacy chain are being paid $100 to take time off and text a friend—welcome to Sweden’s ‘friendship hour’

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Loneliness is wearing down so many workers that it’s been deemed an “epidemic” by U.S. healthcare professionals. Across the pond in Europe, employees are grappling with the same issue; that’s why one Swedish employer is piloting a paid “friendship hour” to combat isolation.

Apotek Hjärtat, one of Sweden’s largest pharmaceutical chains, is trialing a “friendcare” program (“vänvård” in Swedish), where staff are allotted one hour per month, or 15 minutes every week during working hours, to connect with old or new friends.

The year-long scheme was first launched last April, according to reporting from BBC. Volunteers could register for the initiative if they were lonely, or simply wanted to get closer to people struggling with isolation—just 11 out of 4,000 employees opted in 

The business has not only set aside work hours to test the initiative, it’s also been footing the bill for connection. 

All participants are paid 1,000 kronor (around $100) to cover activities with their companions. But the “friendship hour” doesn’t have to be spent dining out for lunch, or biking around town; staffers can use the time for the simplest relationship pastimes, such as chatting on the phone or catching up over text. 

Improving workers’ wellbeing is actually a tax benefit for the company

Monica Magnusson, the CEO of Apotek Hjärtat, told BBC the “friendship hour” scheme came about out of genuine curiosity: the company wanted to see if this allotted employee time would improve staff wellbeing. 

“We try and see what the effects are from having the opportunity to spend a bit of time every week on safeguarding your relationships,” Magnusson told the BBC. 

The program is likened to Sweden’s broader “friskvård” benefit: an annual tax-exempt stipend covering employee wellness activities, such as fitness classes and massages. Magnusson said the “friendship hour” is “a reflection on that, but targeting loneliness and relationships instead.”

But even Apotek Hjärtat employees not participating in the pilot can still benefit emotionally from another initiative; the business provides online training for all its staffers on how to recognize and handle loneliness. 

Fortune reached out to Apotek Hjärtat for comment.

The $154 billion employee loneliness problem

Loneliness has swept through offices across the U.S.; around 79% of white-collar employees have felt lonely as a result of their role within the past month, according to a 2024 study from BSG in partnership with TheLi.st and Berlin Cameron. The issue not only leads to higher turnover, weakened company culture, and sluggish employee morale—it’s also costing businesses billions of dollars every year. 

It’s estimated that loneliness among U.S. staffers results in a $154 billion loss annually, or about $4,200 in lost workdays per staffer each year, according to a 2022 study from Project Connect.

However, there’s hope that these employer-led initiatives could help turn the tide on loneliness—and there’s a business imperative to do so. Employees are 3.5 times more likely to reach their full potential when they feel connected, according to a 2019 study from the Harvard Business Review. When staffers are connected, they also perform better on the job: around eight in 10 workers believe a sense of community would help them be better at work, according to a 2025 Randstad report.

If employers choose to turn a blind eye to their isolated staffers, it could hurt them in the long run. About 55% of professionals would consider quitting if they didn’t feel a sense of belonging on the job, a massive increase from 37% who said the same in 2024, according to the Randstad report


Are you a CEO intentionally combating post-pandemic workplace loneliness? Fortune wants to hear from you! Reach out at emma.burleigh@fortune.com



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More Americans will die than be born in 2030, CBO predicts—leaving immigrants as the only source of population growth

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For the first time in modern history, the United States is on the brink of losing its most basic engine of growth: more births than deaths.

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Demographic Outlook, released Tuesday, the year 2030 marks a tipping point that will fundamentally reshape the  economy and social fabric. That’s the year the “natural” U.S. population—the balance of births over deaths—is projected to vanish. 

“Net immigration (the number of people who migrate to the United States minus the number who leave) is projected to become an increasingly important source of population growth in the coming years, as declining fertility rates cause the annual number of deaths to exceed the annual number of births starting in 2030,” the CBO writes. “Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030.”

From that point on, every additional person added to the U.S. population will come from immigration, a demographic milestone once associated with aging countries like Italy and Japan

The shift is striking not only for what it says about America’s rapidly aging society, but also for how soon it is expected to arrive. Just a year ago, many demographic forecasts—including the CBO’s own forecast—placed this crossover well into the late 2030s or even the 2040s. The updated outlook from CBO moves the timeline forward by nearly a decade.

This rapid acceleration, the CBO said, is driven by the “double squeeze” of declining fertility and an aging populace, combined with recent policy shifts on immigration. CBO analysts have drastically lowered their expectations for the total fertiility rate, now projecting it to settle at just 1.53 births per woman — well below the 2.1 “replacement rate” needed for a stable population. At the same time, the massive “Baby Boomer” generation is reaching ages with higher mortality rates, causing annual deaths to climb.

The timeline further compressed following the passage of the 2025 Reconciliation Act, which increased funding for more ICE agents and immigration judges to process cases faster, resulting in approximately 50,000 immigrants in detention daily through 2029, CBO said. The office calculated that these provisions will result in roughly 320,000 fewer people in the U.S. population by 2035 than previously estimated.

The new projections show that U.S. population growth will steadily decelerate over the next three decades until it finally hits zero in 2056. For most of the 20th century, the population grew at close to 1% a year: a flat population would represent a historic break from that norm. 

The economic consequences of this shift are hard to overstate. While the number of retirees swells, the pool of workers funding the social safety net — and caring for the aging population —  is narrowing. Americans aged 65 and older are the fastest-growing segment of the population, pushing the “old-age dependency ratio” sharply higher. In 1960, there were about five workers for every retiree. Today, that ratio is closer to three-to-one. By the mid-2050s, the CBO projects it will fall to roughly two workers per retiree. The contraction will have “significant implications” on the federal budget, including outsized effects on Social Security and Medicare, placing pressure on those trust funds which rely on a robust base of payroll taxes that a stagnant population cannot easily provide.

Further, because national GDP is essentially the product of the number of workers multiplied by their individual productivity, the loss of labor force growth means the American economy will have to rely almost entirely on technological breakthroughs and AI to drive future gains. This may be happening ahead of schedule, as continued weak employment growth in December showed a “jobless expansion,” in the words of KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, as Fortune previously reported.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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