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As the artificial intelligence trade continues to push the stock market to new highs, investors are increasingly asking if we’re living through another financial bubble that’s destined to burst. 

The answer isn’t so simple, at least according to history.

The S&P 500 Index jumped 16% in 2025, with AI winners Nvidia Corp., Alphabet Inc., Broadcom Inc. and Microsoft Corp. contributing the most. But at the same time, concerns are mounting about the hundreds of billions of dollars Big Tech has pledged to spend on AI infrastructure. Capital expenditures from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are expected to rise 34% to roughly $440 billion combined over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Meanwhile, OpenAI has committed to spending more than $1 trillion on AI infrastructure, an eye-popping number for a closely held company that isn’t profitable. But perhaps even more troubling is the circular nature of many of its arrangements, in which investments and spending go back and forth between OpenAI and a few publicly traded tech giants.

Throughout history, over-investment has been a common theme when there’s a technological advancement that will transform society, according to Invesco chief global market strategist Brian Levitt, who pointed to the development of railroads, electricity and the internet. This time may be no different.

“At some point the infrastructure build may exceed what the economy will need over a short period of time,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean that the rail tracks weren’t finished or the internet didn’t become a thing, right?”

Still, with equity valuations creeping up and the S&P 500 just posting its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, it makes sense that investors are growing concerned about how much upside is left and how much market value could be lost if AI doesn’t live up to the hype. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Broadcom and Meta Platforms account for almost 30% of the S&P 500, so an AI selloff would hit the index hard.  

“A bubble likely crashes on a bear market,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group, who doesn’t believe AI stocks are in a bubble. “We just don’t see a bear market anytime soon.” 

Here’s how today’s AI boom stacks up against previous market bubbles. 

Pace, Length

One simple way of gaging whether the AI-fueled tech rally has gone too far or too fast is to compare it against past bull runs. Looking at 10 equity bubbles from around the world since 1900, they lasted just over two-and-a-half years on average with a trough-to-peak gain of 244%, according to research by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett.

By comparison, the AI-driven rally is in its third year, with the S&P 500 rising 79% since the end of 2022 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gaining 130%. 

While it’s difficult to draw any conclusions from the data, Hartnett warns investors against fleeing the stock market even if they believe it’s in a bubble because the last stretch of the rally is typically the steepest, and missing out would be costly. One way to hedge is to buy cheap value plays like UK stocks and energy companies, he said.

Concentration

The S&P 500’s 10 biggest stocks now account for roughly 40% of the index, a level of concentration not seen since the 1960s. That has put some investors off, including Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeni, who said in December that it no longer makes sense to recommend overweighting tech stocks.

Market historians argue that, while the concentration seems extreme relative to recent memory, there are precedents. Top stocks as a share of the US market were at similar levels in the 1930s and 1960s, according to London Business School professor Paul Marsh, who studied the past 125 years of global asset returns. In 1900, 63% of US market value was tied to railroad stocks, compared with 37% tied to technology at the end of 2024, Marsh said.

Fundamentals

Asset bubbles tend to be much harder to spot in real time than after the fact because fundamentals are usually at the center of the debate, and the metrics investors focus on can be fluid, according to TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins. 

“It is easy for tech enthusiasts to claim that ‘it’s different now’ and that fundamental valuations will never be the same again,” he said.

But some fundamentals are always important. For example, compared with the dot-com bubble, today’s AI giants have lower debt-to-earnings ratios than, say, WorldCom Inc. And companies like Nvidia and Meta Platforms are already reporting strong profit growth from AI, which wasn’t necessarily the case in the speculative era 25 years ago.

The potential for credit risk in the AI trade is making some investors nervous. After Oracle Corp. sold $18 billion in bonds on Sept. 24, the stock plunged 5.6% the next day and it’s down 37% since then. Meta, Alphabet and Oracle will need to raise $86 billion combined in 2026 alone, according to an estimate by Societe Generale

Valuations

The S&P 500’s valuation is the highest it’s ever been except for the early 2000s, at least according to its cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, a metric invented by economist Robert Shiller that divides a stock price by the average of its inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. 

Bullish investors argue that while market valuations are rising because of tech, the pace of increase is much slower than the dot-com era. At one point in 2000, Cisco Systems Inc. was priced at over 200 times its previous 12 months of earnings, while Nvidia is at less than 50 times today. 

Stock prices decouple from earnings growth in an environment where there’s no debate on valuations, according to Richard Clode, a fund manager at Janus Henderson. “We’re just not seeing that currently as yet,” he said.

Investor Scrutiny

Discussions of a potential stock bubble percolated throughout the year but picked up significantly in November and December amid warnings from investor Michael Burry and the Bank of England. More than 12,000 stories in November mentioned the phrase “AI bubble,” roughly equal to the prior ten months combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investors see an AI bubble as the biggest “tail risk” event, a December poll by Bank of America showed. More than half of the respondents said the Magnificent Seven tech stocks were Wall Street’s most crowded trade.

This contrasts with the dot-com bubble, when there was “complete excitement about the internet revolutionizing everything,” said Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays. And the questions about whether AI investments will pay off are increasing as the debt issuance rises.

“I wouldn’t brush it off, but I would generally think that scrutiny is healthy,” he said. “In fact, that scrutiny is what will prevent extreme moves like a crash.”



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The ‘Holy Grail of comic books’ once owned by Nicolas Cage sells at auction for a record $15 million

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A rare copy of the comic book that introduced the world to Superman and also was once stolen from the home of actor Nicolas Cage has been sold for a record $15 million.

The private deal for “Action Comics No. 1” was announced Friday. It eclipses the previous record price for a comic book, set last November when a copy of “Superman No. 1″ was at sold at auction for $9.12 million.

The Action Comics sale was negotiated by Manhattan-based Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect, which said the comic book’s owner and the buyer wished to remain anonymous.

The comic — which sold for 10 cents when it came out in 1938 — was an anthology of tales about mostly now little-known characters. But over a few panels, it told the origin story of Superman’s birth on a dying planet, his journey to Earth and his decision as an adult to “turn his titanic strength into channels that would benefit mankind.”

Its publication marked the beginning of the superhero genre. About 100 copies of Action Comics No. 1 are known to exist, according to Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect President Vincent Zurzolo.

“This is among the Holy Grail of comic books. Without Superman and his popularity, there would be no Batman or other superhero comic book legends,” Zurzolo said. “It’s importance in the comic book community shows with his deal, as it obliterates the previous record,” Zurzolo said.

The comic book was stolen from Cage’s Los Angeles home in 2000 but was recovered in 2011 when it was found by a man who had purchased the contents of an old storage locker in southern California. It eventually was returned to Cage, who had bought it in 1996 for $150,000. Six months after it was returned to him, he sold it at auction for $2.2 million.

Stephen Fishler, CEO of Metropolis Collectibles/Comic Connect, said the theft eventually played a big role in boosting the comic’s value.

“During that 11-year period (it was missing), it skyrocketed in value.,” Fishler said “The thief made Nicolas Cage a lot of money by stealing it.”

Fishler compared it to the theft of Mona Lisa, which was stolen from the Louvre museum in Paris in 1911.

“It was kept under the thief’s bed for two years,” Fishler noted. “The recovery of the painting made the Mona Lisa go from being just a great Da Vinci painting to a world icon — and that’s what Action No. 1 is — an icon of American pop culture.”



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Trump order says Venezuelan oil money is being held by US for ‘governmental and diplomatic purposes’

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President Donald Trump’s new executive order on Venezuelan oil revenue is meant to ensure that the money remains protected from being used in judicial proceedings.

The executive order, made public on Saturday, says that if the funds were to be seized for such use, it could “undermine critical U.S. efforts to ensure economic and political stability in Venezuela.”

The order comes amid caution from top oil company executives that the tumult and instability in Venezuela could make the country less attractive for private investment and rebuilding.

“If we look at the commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” said Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company, during a meeting convened by Trump with oil executives on Friday.

During the session, Trump tried to assuage the concerns of the oil companies and said the executives would be dealing directly with the U.S., rather than the Venezuelan government.

Venezuela has a history of state asset seizures, ongoing U.S. sanctions and decades of political uncertainty.

Getting U.S. oil companies to invest in Venezuela and help rebuild the country’s infrastructure is a top priority of the Trump administration after the dramatic capture of now-deposed leader Nicolás Maduro.

The White House is framing the effort to “run” Venezuela in economic terms, and Trump has seized tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, has said the U.S. is taking over the sales of 30 million to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan crude, and plans to control sales worldwide indefinitely.

“I love the Venezuelan people, and am already making Venezuela rich and safe again,” Trump, who is currently in southern Florida, wrote on his social media site on Saturday. “Congratulations and thank you to all of those people who are making this possible!!!”

The order says the oil revenue is property of Venezuela that is being held by the United States for “governmental and diplomatic purposes” and not subject to private claims.

Its legal underpinnings are the National Emergencies Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Trump, in the order, says the possibility that the oil revenues could be caught up in judicial proceedings constitutes an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the U.S.



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As U.S. debt soars past $38 trillion, corporate bond flood is a growing threat to Treasury supply

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As the Treasury Department looks to ensure investors continue absorbing the fresh supply of debt it must sell, growing competition from companies issuing their own bonds could send rates higher, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok.

In a note on Saturday, he pointed out that Wall Street estimates for the volume of investment grade debt that’s on the way this year reach as high as $2.25 trillion.

That’s as the AI boom increasingly sends companies, including hyperscalers and adjacent firms, to the bond market to fund massive investments in data centers and other infrastructure.

“The significant increase in hyperscaler issuance raises questions about who will be the marginal buyer of IG paper,” Slok said. “Will it come from Treasury purchases and hence put upward pressure on the level of rates? Or might it come from mortgage purchases, putting upward pressure on mortgage spreads?”

With U.S. debt topping $38 trillion, the federal government has already borrowed $601 billion in the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year, which began in October 2025, according to the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s $110 billion less than the deficit during the same period a year earlier as tariffs helped revenue outpace spending. But the Supreme Court could strike down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs soon, and this year’s tax season should see a surge of refunds to account for new tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Meanwhile, Trump has vowed to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion a year from $1 trillion, threatening to further deepen federal budget deficits.

And despite the Federal Reserve’s series of rate cuts this past autumn, Treasury yields remain about where they were in early September, suggesting the government will not see much relief on debt-servicing costs that are also contributing to the overall tally of red ink.

“The bottom line is that the volume of fixed-income products coming to market this year is significant and is likely to put upward pressure on rates and credit spreads as we go through 2026,” Slok said.

Apollo

To make sure there’s sufficient demand among bond investors, Treasury yields must remain attractive relative to the competition. Failure to draw enough investors raises the risk of so-called fiscal dominance, or when a central bank must step into to finance widening deficits.

That’s what former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of last weekend, during a panel hosted by the American Economic Association.

“The preconditions for fiscal dominance are clearly strengthening,” she said, noting debt is on a steep upward trajectory toward 150% of GDP over the next three decades.

At the same time, he holders of U.S. debt have shifted drastically over the past decade, tilting more toward profit-driven private investors and away from foreign governments that are less sensitive to prices.

That threatens to turn the U.S. financial system more fragile in times of market stress, according to Geng Ngarmboonanant, a managing director at JPMorgan and former deputy chief of staff to Yellen during her tenure at Treasury.

Foreign governments accounted for more than 40% of Treasury bond holdings in the early 2010s, up from just over 10% in the mid-1990s, he wrote in a New York Times op-ed last month. This reliable bloc of investors allowed the U.S. to borrow vast sums at artificially low rates.

“Those easy times are over,” he warned. “Foreign governments now make up less than 15% of the overall Treasury market.”



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