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As AI investors fret over ROI, these startups attracted serious cash from customers in 2025

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The AI startups that customers will reliably shell out for are the ones that will ultimately survive and thrive. 

Seems obvious enough, but it bears repeating in the AI industry’s financial funhouse-mirror landscape. ARR remains far from trustworthy, as the SaaS-era metric has been getting watered down: In some cases, companies fold in pilot revenue and one-time deals, bolstering the appearance of stability. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of anxiety around what it means for an AI tool to offer true ROI. 

So I was intrigued by fintech Brex’s recent data outlining 2025’s 50 fastest-growing software vendors. The data is based on real spending, drawn from credit card and bill pay transactions from more than 35,000 anonymized Brex customers, that shows just who those customers are willing to pay for AI tools and services.

The data weighs recent months more heavily to select for companies that didn’t just soar and crash at the beginning of 2025. The data also filters out public companies and companies worth more than $30 billion, so it covers the category of companies I most worry about in a bubble burst—the unicorns valued, more or less, between $5 and $25 billion. Big enough to matter, but not too big to fail.

“The goal isn’t just ‘who grew the most,’ but rather it’s ‘who grew the most and is likely to keep growing,’” said Sumeet Marwaha, Brex’s head of data, via email.

The fastest-growing software vendor in 2025: Cursor, valued north of $29 billion, came in at number one. The king of the coding juggernauts, Cursor saw 1,000% year-over-year growth in spending among Brex customers. Marwaha said that Cursor saw “spend compounding every single month of 2025. No other vendor in our data did that. Not one.”

It wasn’t just Cursor—coding tools as a category put up a substantial showing in the top 50. Windsurf (acquired by Cognition after initially agreeing to a deal with OpenAI) came in at No. 6, Replit at No. 9, CodeRabbit at No. 15, and StackBlitz at No. 36. 

“This category basically didn’t exist two years ago,” Marwaha said. “Now there’s a paid, AI-powered coding environment that developers actually want and that managers are approving real budgets for.”

Marwaha said that the main factor in that rapid rise was “Friction. Or rather, the lack of it. Developers can run these tools locally. No IT approvals, no security reviews, no six-month procurement death march. Download it, use it, see the value immediately.”

Some other notable and surprising shoutouts: No. 2 was OpenRouter, a less well-known AI model marketplace, which saw 1,500% year-over-year spending growth on Brex. Other names drawing dollars at the infrastructure layer include Vast.ai (No. 11), Groq (No. 12), Supabase (No. 23), and Sentry(No. 33).

The natural question, just days before Christmas, is how this will all play out in 2026. Marwaha’s betting on visual AI. In 2025, AI video production tool provider Kling.ai came in at No. 3, while Ideogram and Runway made the list at No. 17 and No. 44 respectively. The idea is that these visual and video platforms could follow the no-friction coding tool playbook.

“The winners in 2026 won’t just be general-purpose generators,” Marwaha told Fortune. “They’ll be tools that nail a particular use case so well that teams can’t go back to the old way.”

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

Kargo, a San Francisco-based developer of an AI-powered network designed to monitor inbound and outbound freight in the supply chain, raised $42 million in Series B funding. Avenir led the round and was joined by Linse Capital, Hearst Ventures, Lightbank, and others.

Truemed, an Austin, Texas-based telehealth marketplace, raised $34 million in Series A funding. Andreessen Horowitz led the round and was joined by Bessemer Venture Partners, Long Journey Ventures, BoxGroup, and Trust Ventures.

Private Equity

Integrated Power Services, backed by Searchlight Capital Partners, agreed to acquire TechPro Power Group, a Crofton, Md.-based group of power services companies. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Vitruvian Partners acquired Aquabyte, a San Francisco, Calif.-based developer of computer vision and machine learning software designed to improve efficiency in fish farming. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

Exits

Alphabet agreed to acquire Intersect, a San Francisco-based energy and data center infrastructure company, for $4.75 billion. The acquisition includes TPG Rise Climate’s stake in the company.

Sandbrook Capital agreed to acquire United Utility Services, a New Orleans, La. and Charlotte, N.C.-based utility services company, from Bernhard Capital Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

TPG agreed to acquire a majority stake in Conservice, a River Heights, Utah-based utility management company, from Advent International. Financial terms were not disclosed.



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The secrets of what Arnault knows: How Bernard Arnault built the impossible, and his timeless, transferable lessons of leadership 

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The history of the craftsmanship economy is littered with the ruins of fashion houses which lost their creative soul through founder absence, over-licensing, or managerial drift — as seen at once-iconic examples such as Halston, Pierre Cardin, Liz Claiborne, and Kate Spade — and internal turbulence (Gucci), as well as unsuccessful conglomeration efforts which proved incapable of preserving creative genius at scale. 

In contrast to such unraveled tapestries, Bernard Arnault has not merely defied that history; he has fortified quality brands and built something entirely new and unprecedented.  

Arnault did not merely preserve a single great house after a founder’s passing — a feat rare enough in creative industries. He has assembled, disciplined, and sustained an entire federation of once fragile maisons, each with its own lineage, mythology, tempo, and creative risk profile, transforming a constellation of independent brands into a pioneering global powerhouse, with LVMH the first European company to surpass a $500 billion valuation. Along the way, Arnault has become one of the rare titans whose vision has reshaped not just business, but culture and society more broadly. 

So how did Bernard Arnault achieve the impossible? This is a question we had a rare opportunity to explore publicly. At our recent Yale CEO Summit, we conferred the 2025 Yale Legend in Leadership Award upon Arnault, presented by Condé Nast global chief content officer and artistic director Dame Anna Wintour; Blackstone chairman and CEO Stephen Schwarzman; and entrepreneur and philanthropist Ivanka Trump, the entirety of which was broadcast live on CNBC TV and on CNBC.com. Afterward, Arnault subsequently engaged in some rare Q&A, moderated by CNBC anchor Sara Eisen, during which he cast some light on the secrets to his success, and at least three timeless and transferable lessons of leadership.  

That we had the opportunity to pick Arnault’s brain at all was exceedingly rare and unique. As his friend Steve Schwarzman reminded us during the award ceremony, he is “a most unusual person.” In a world of grandiose consumer goods promoters, it is rare to see a greatest brand builder also be a man of rare humble character.

Anna Wintour captured this paradox even more eloquently: “As many of you will have noticed, Bernard is not an easy man to get to know. I have been meeting with him for some four decades, and yet I still find him as fascinatingly enigmatic as Gerhard Richter’s Forest paintings — which, of course, are in Bernard’s collection. All I seem to have is traces and gestures, flickering from a person who has worked across the canvas at great speed.” 

Arnault’s lessons start with relentless focus. As he declared in his acceptance remarks, “My time as founder and CEO of LVMH since the late ‘80s has taught me that as the world evolves around us, we must evolve with it and embrace change while never losing sight of the core values and guiding principles upon which our businesses and institutions are built. Today, I suspect we can all agree that change is happening faster than ever, and that the way in which we live, communicate and transact is being constantly reshaped by the geopolitical environment, economic uncertainty, and seismic events of our time, and not least our fast-developing technologies. I also suspect we share that turbulence and uncertainty are not barriers to leadership. 

“In fact, quite the opposite. In turbulent times, we must anchor ourselves to our enduring values and principles. For LVMH, that anchor is clear: our commitment to exceptional craftsmanship, cultural heritage, and the relentless pursuit of excellence. These commitments are what our clients seek, what our brands are built on, and what ultimately stands the test of time. Staying true to those values in a volatile world is long-term stewardship.” 

Arnault’s focus is so relentless that, as Anna Wintour eloquently explained, “To say that Bernard is interested in his companies is like saying renowned pianist Glenn Gould was interested in Bach. He is an obsessive who feels the enterprise in every corner of his soul,” telling a humorous story of how, when the two of them had a spare afternoon in DC, Wintour suggested perhaps visiting a couple of museums along the National Mall, or seeing what was on at the Kennedy Center. “Bernard took on the unhappy expression of a man who had been asked to attend a three-hour lecture on soil erosion. His notion of a great day in the American capital, it turned out, was the same as his notion of a relaxing Saturday morning in Paris: visiting all the LVMH shops in town to see what they could be doing better.

A second lesson is the importance of loyalty, commitment, and family. As Ivanka Trump explained to us, “The quality I most admire in Bernard has nothing to do with business. It’s his devotion to family. Every Saturday, without exception, the entire Arnault family gathers together for lunch at the home of Bernard and his amazing wife Helene — all of his children and all of their children. In a world that moves quickly, Bernard chooses presence. In a life defined by innovation, he chooses ritual. That same consistency defines his relationship with his team. Bernard expects excellence, and he offers loyalty, mentorship, and trust in return. Many of LVMH’s senior leaders have spent decades under his guidance — a testament to a culture built on integrity, humility, and shared purpose”. 

Indeed, as Ivanka alluded to, Arnault defines family not strictly in the genetic sense. “My company is very much a family group, not only with my children, but it’s a way of managing a business. It’s not what we call in French, a societe anonyme — it’s the opposite. It’s a family. So everybody entering LVMH enters not only a big company, but a big family. They are members of the family, and we take care of them like family. Obviously, we have more than 200,000 people, so the relationship is not as close as in the small family, but it’s a family nonetheless. As for my children, I tried since their birth to explain to them that they are very lucky to be in a family that has a chance to manage such a group, but for getting responsibility, they have to merit the responsibility and to prove they can do it.”

A third lesson is the importance of a quality that Anna Wintour described as “brave and radical conviction,” or as Ivanka captured, “the right-brain/left-brain fusion to take the boldest risk, and still see around corners with uncanny business sense and precision.”

It is that visionary prescience which defines how Arnault has always perceived trends years before anyone else. As Steve Schwarzman noted, Arnault’s start in the luxury business was when he chose to retain “a small, unprofitable company called Christian Dior. He said he thought it had real potential — which I guess is one of the great understatements”. Though the group was bleeding cash at the time, Arnault knew it had value, as Ivanka related: “One of my favorite stories to tell Bernard tell is of his first trip to New York in the 1970s, when he asked a taxi driver if he knew the name of the French president. The cab driver said, no, but I know Christian Dior.”

That same visionary conviction to take big, bold bets holds true today, as Arnault perceived the shift towards premium experiences years before anyone else did. As Arnault describes it: “To give you one example: today people are looking not only for products, which I just described, but also for experiences. Over the years, we invested in many domains, we have some of the best hotels in the world — through Cheval Blanc and through Belmond. After COVID, the demand for these beautiful places has increased. People want to find the best qualities — the most extraordinary things. AI is very useful for some tasks. But AI cannot go in the kitchen very easily. AI cannot cook beautiful dishes.”

Similarly, as Anna Wintour points out, “today we are in the midst of a new moment of thrilling upheaval in fashion, and Bernard is once more at its core,” lifting and promoting a new generation of visionary young creatives and designers who blend innovation with tradition. 

That vision and conviction flow through directly from Arnault himself, unimpeded by bureaucracy. As Schwarzman described, “You would think with a company of this scale, that he has a large staff, and there’s constant deals put in front of him for approval. But as it works out, he doesn’t have a staff. He does everything himself. He works with just one person on every deal, and he’s done a huge number of deals in his life — almost all of which have a very interesting real-estate component, where he had his own success before this building of the luxury business. He’s a brilliant strategist as well as a tactician.”

***

Ultimately, Arnault’s success is a reflection of his singular qualities, but his leadership lessons are timeless and widely transferable. A generation prior, Charles Revson, the pioneering founder of Revlon, arrogantly declared “creative people are like a wet towel. You wring them out and pick up another one.” Perhaps that helps explain why Revlon has since declared bankruptcy as its luster faded, for such arrogance would be anathema to Arnault, whose personal humility masks a man who has had a singular impact on the world. 

As his trusted longtime deputy of five decades, Michael Burke, Chairman and CEO of LVMH Americas, declared to us: “Ladies and gentlemen, in June of 1963, a young boy in Frankfurt — myself — watched on a flickering black-and-white television as President Kennedy stood before half a million Berliners and, with fire in his voice, declared: Ich bin ein Berliner. On that day, something profound stirred within me. I sensed that a new era of boldness, freedom, and limitless possibility was dawning for the world. Thirteen years later, destiny led me to Paris. There, a young entrepreneur named Bernard Arnault looked at a nervous intern — again, myself — and chose to take a chance. Little did I know then that I had just entered the orbit of a man who would profoundly change the world — not through speeches, but through an unparalleled vision, unwavering courage, and an almost superhuman instinct for greatness. Today, as I stand before you to accept this esteemed award on his behalf, I feel a compelling urge to draw a parallel between that momentous day in 1963 and this moment. And so I proclaim: Bernard… Du bist ein Mensch.” 

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The oldest baby boomers — once the vanguard of an American youth that revolutionized U.S. culture and politics — turn 80 in 2026.

The generation that twirled the first plastic hula hoops and dressed up the first Barbie dolls, embraced the TV ageblissed out at Woodstock and protested the Vietnam War — the cohort that didn’t trust anyone over age 30 — now is contributing to the overall aging of America.

Boomers becoming octogenarians in 2026 include actor Henry Winkler and baseball Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, singers Cher and Dolly Parton and presidents Donald TrumpGeorge W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

The aging and shrinking youth of America

America’s population swelled with around 76 million births from 1946 to 1964, a spike magnified by couples reuniting after World War Two and enjoying postwar prosperity.

Boomers were better educated and richer than previous generations, and they helped grow a consumer-driven economy. In their youth, they pushed for social change through the Civil Rights Movement, the women’s rights movement and efforts to end the Vietnam War.

“We had rock ‘n’ roll. We were the first generation to get out and demonstrate in the streets. We were the first generation, that was, you know, a socially conscious generation,” said Diane West, a metro Atlanta resident who turns 80 in January. “Our parents played by the rules. We didn’t necessarily play by the rules, and there were lots of us.”

As they got older they became known as the “me” generation, a pejorative term coined by writer Tom Wolfe to reflect what some regarded as their self-absorption and consumerism.

“The thing about baby boomers is they’ve always had a spotlight on them, no matter what age they were,” Brookings demographer William Frey said. “They were a big generation, but they also did important things.”

By the end of this decade, all baby boomers will be 65 and older, and the number of people 80 and over will double in 20 years, Frey said.

The share of senior citizens in the U.S. population is projected to grow from 18.7% in 2025 to nearly 23% by 2050, while children under 18 decline from almost 21% to a projected 18.4%.

Without any immigration, the U.S. population will start shrinking in five years. That’s when deaths will surpass births, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, which were revised in September to account for the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Population growth comes from immigration as well as births outpacing deaths.

The aging of America is being compounded by longer lives due to better health care and lower birth rates.

The projected average U.S. life expectancy at birth rises from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.2 years in 2055, according to the CBO. And since the Great Recession in 2008, when the fertility rate was 2.08, around the 2.1 rate needed for children to numerically replace their parents, it has been on a steady decline, hitting 1.6 in 2025.

Younger generations miss boomer milestones

Women are having fewer children because they are better educated, they’re delaying marriage to focus on careers and they’re having their first child at a later age. Unaffordable housing, poor access to child care and the growing expenses of child-rearing also add up to fewer kids.

University of New Hampshire senior demographer Kenneth Johnson estimates that the result has been 11.8 million fewer births, compared to what might have been had the fertility rate stayed at Great Recession levels.

“I was young when I had kids. I mean that’s what we did — we got out of college, we got married and we had babies,” said West, who has two daughters, a stepdaughter and six grandchildren. “My kids got married in their 30s, so it’s very different.”

A recent Census Bureau study showed that 21st century young adults in the U.S. haven’t been adulting like baby boomers did. In 1975, almost half of 25-to-34-year-olds had moved out of their parents’ home, landed jobs, gotten married and had kids. By the early 2020s, less than a quarter of U.S. adults had hit these milestones.

West, whose 21-year-old grandson lives with her, understands why: They lack the prospects her generation enjoyed. Her grandson, Paul Quirk, said it comes down to financial instability.

“They were able to buy a lot of things, a lot cheaper,” Quirk said.

All of her grandchildren are frustrated by the economy, West added.

“You have to get three roommates in order to afford a place,” she said. “When we got out of college, we had a job waiting for us. And now, people who have master’s degrees are going to work fast food while they look for a real job.”

Implications for the economy

The aging of America could constrain economic growth. With fewer workers paying taxes, Social Security and Medicare will be under more pressure. About 34 seniors have been supported by every 100 workers in 2025, but that ratio grows to 50 seniors per 100 working-age people in about 30 years, according to estimates released last year by the White House.

When West launched her career in employee benefits and retirement planning in 1973, each 100 workers supported 20 or fewer retirees, by some calculations.

Vice President JD Vance and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are among those pushing for an increase in fertility. Vance has suggested giving parents more voting power, according to their numbers of children, or following the example of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in giving low-interest loans to married parents and tax exemptions to women who have four children or more.

Frey said programs that incentivize fertility among U.S. women hardly ever work, so funding should support pre-kindergarten and paid family leave.

“I think the best you can do for people who do want to have kids is to make it easier and less expensive to have them and raise them,” he said. “Those things may not bring up the fertility rate as much as people would like, but at least the kids who are being born will have a better chance of succeeding.”

___

Emilie Megnien in Atlanta contributed to this report.



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U.S. GDP growth is being kept alive by AI spending ‘with no guaranteed return’: Deutsche Bank

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We will get a new estimate of Q3 U.S. GDP growth today. The consensus among analysts is for a rise of 3.2% year-on-year. That’s pretty decent growth. No wonder then, that the S&P 500 ticked up another 0.88% yesterday, to come within half a percentage point of its all-time high, and futures this morning are marginally up too. Traders seem to be pretty happy about where the U.S. economy is going.

But some analysts are starting to worry about how much of that growth is concentrated in AI.

A recent note from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that private fixed investment—a measure of how much companies are spending—”is rising only due to AI-related spending.” Analyst Oliver Allen published a chart this morning showing that all other private fixed investment is actually in decline:

“Capex intentions remain depressed, suggesting investment outside of AI-linked sectors remains weak,” he told clients in a note seen by Fortune.

Deutsche Bank said much the same thing in a recent note discussing whether AI was a bubble. “Investment in AI-related sectors is critical to GDP growth [and the] U.S. would be close to recession this year if it weren’t for tech-related spending, as other spending has flatlined post-Covid,” analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan wrote.

The scale of capital expenditure (capex) investment going into AI is gargantuan. Bank of America’s Justin Post and Nitin Bansal estimate that AI capex from just five “hyperscalers” (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle) will total $399 billion this year and rise to over $600 billion in the years to come.

Increasingly, that AI capex will likely be funded by debt. The big tech companies have such healthy cashflow and robust balance sheets that it’s easy for most of them to add debt without harming their bottom lines, BofA says.

That debt is already breaking records. “Net supply [of new debt] from AI-related issuers in the USD credit market has crossed $200 billion in 2025, more than doubling last year’s total,” Spencer Rogers and his colleagues at Goldman Sachs told clients recently. “30% of USD credit net supply this year is AI-related.” He expects that number to go higher next year.

BofA says the companies are chasing $1 trillion in incremental revenues over the next five years. About $500 billion of that from cloud services; $400 billion in extra digital advertising spending; and $200 billion from AI subscriptions from both consumers and businesses. 

“Historically (2021-24), each dollar of capex helped generate an average of $0.90 incremental revenue and $0.42 of incremental EBITDA in the following year,” they wrote.

Let’s hope they are right. Because according to Deutsche Bank, hyperscalers will spend a cumulative $4 trillion on AI data centers through 2030—more than the U.S. government’s moon-landing program in the 1960s: “10x [the] inflation-adjusted cost of Apollo programme with no guaranteed return.”

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures are up marginally this morning. The last session closed up 0.64%. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.18% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.2%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.28%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was flat. 
  • Bitcoin sunk to $87K.
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