This is because many Chinese exporters turned to transshipping to reduce tariff payments—a process that led them to route goods through ASEAN countries before shipping them to the U.S.

Consequently, in 2025, the U.S. saw a reduction in Chinese goods, which were slapped with steep 40% tariffs, and an increase in ASEAN imports, which had lower tariffs averaging 10%.

President Trump, meanwhile, sought to diversify U.S. supply chains by inking trade deals with four ASEAN countries—Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam—and pledging America’s commitment to the region.

“Our message to the nations of Southeast Asia is that the US is with you 100% and we intend to be a strong partner and friend for many generations to come,” Trump told leaders at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 26, noting that two-way trade between U.S. and Southeast Asia had reached a record of $453 billion in 2024.

China too, has sought to deepen ties with their Southern neighbours, signing an upgraded Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA 3.0) with ASEAN at the same summit—and cementing its position as Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner.

This has translated into steady growth for the ASEAN region.

“ASEAN’s growth in 2025 (+4.8%) turned out to be resilient and largely unchanged from 2024,” Maybank’s analysts say in their ASEAN Macro 2026 Year Ahead report, adding that “the fog of uncertainty from tariffs has dissipated”.

Maybank also noted that ASEAN countries’ negotiations with the White House resulted in tariff rates that were much lower than the ones Trump initially threatened, which were as high as 46% for Vietnam and 36% for Thailand. Meanwhile exemptions for tariff categories like electronics, pharmaceuticals, energy and minerals further reduced the bite of the tariffs.

An ongoing shift to dealmaking

But with the U.S. midterm elections looming in Nov. 2026, Trump will likely shift his focus to dealmaking and reducing economic uncertainty, Macquarie’s analysts say. 

This shift has already begun in recent months, they add, with the U.S. inking a bilateral framework agreement with the EU in July, and a deal to lower tariff rates for China in late October. Several partners have also signed similar tariff-slashing deals, including the UK and Japan.

“Looking ahead, we suspect the dealmaking approach to persist in 2026,” Macquarie’s analysts say, adding that notable potential deals include those with Mexico and Canada, which constitute 27% and 32% of U.S. exports.

Despite this, experts say that relations between the US and China will likely remain tense. “Relatively high tariffs on China could result in a further diversification of supply chains across Asia, with Chinese manufacturers shifting additional production to economies in the region,” Macquarie’s report reads.

The mega retailer, which has claimed the top spot on the Fortune 500 for the past 13 years, has increased its number of in-house truck drivers by 33% over the past three years in part thanks to better wages and benefits.

In 2022, it boosted drivers’ starting pay to around $115,000 from an average salary of $87,000 previously. At the high end, drivers can make $135,000 per year, according to a Walmart spokesperson. The 2024 median pay for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers was $57,440 per year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Apart from a pay increase, Walmart also uses technology that allows for more reliable schedules compared to other companies. While some in the trucking industry are away for weeks at a time, Walmart gives its drivers consecutive days off of work and assigns them regional delivery territories to allow them to be home every week, a Walmart spokesperson told Fortune.

These perks, along with the better-than-average pay, have increasingly helped the company expand its pool of drivers and include more women. Just 9.5% of truck drivers in the U.S. are women as of 2024, according to the Women in Trucking Index—that’s compared to an estimated 18% of drivers at Walmart, according to a study by workforce intelligence company Revelio Labs that was viewed by Fortune. Bloomberg first reported on the study.

Through a 12-week training program that helps store associates transition to the trucking industry, Walmart has also increased its number of women drivers, a spokesperson said. Around 1,000 people have gone through the program, Bloomberg reported, representing about half of the company’s new drivers.

Possibly due to its efforts, Walmart has a five percentage point oversupply of truck drivers compared to its demand, according to the study by Revelio Labs. 

Walmart’s efforts to bring in more drivers, including those with less experience, is pivotal as the broader trucking industry faces a driver shortage that is expected to bring a shortfall of 160,000 drivers by 2028, according to the American Trucking Association. The broader category of U.S. retail, currently faces a shortfall of drivers, with demand for drivers exceeding supply by seven percentage points, according to Revelio Labs.

Older truck drivers are retiring and younger people aren’t keen to jump into trucking partly due to the long hours and time away from home. A 1,000-person survey from heavy-duty truck parts company FinditParts found that a quarter of Americans would not become truck drivers no matter what pay they were offered. 

For Walmart, any disadvantage in its supply chain, including a driver shortfall, could put it at a disadvantage with Amazon, with which it has been increasingly competing with in recent years, especially with its Walmart+ membership.

Without enough drivers, supply chains are delayed and prices go up. Finding and retaining drivers is thus of the utmost importance for companies like Walmart, Paul Bingham, a director of transportation consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Bloomberg.

“Trucking companies will need more drivers,” he said. “and they’ll have to attract them from the non-traditional population cohorts.”

Instead, the $1,776 payments to troops are coming from a congressionally-approved housing supplement — money they were already set to receive — that was a part of tax cut extensions and expansions bill signed into law in July. Trump’s administration identified the source of the “dividend” payments Thursday.

In his remarks, Trump alluded to his “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” playing a role, but suggested that tariffs were largely responsible for the payments already on the way to 1.45 million members of the military.

“We made a lot more money than anybody thought because of tariffs and the bill helped us along. Nobody deserves it more than our military,” he said in announcing what he described as a “dividend.”

Trump has teased the idea of using his sweeping tariffs on imports to give Americans dividends ever since he imposed them in April. But these new payments are being disbursed by the Pentagon from a $2.9 billion military housing supplement that was part of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” to augment existing housing allowances, according to a senior administration official who requested anonymity to describe the payments.

The amount of the payments is a nod to next year’s 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. In total, the measure is expected to cost $2.6 billion.

Trump’s announcement comes as he’s faced pressure to show he’s working to address rising costs for Americans, with prices remaining stubbornly high as the president has imposed double-digit tariffs on imports from almost every country. Trump has promised to lower prices, but he has struggled to do so. Inflation hit a four-decade high in June 2022 during Joe Biden’s presidency and then began to fall. But inflation has stayed elevated under Trump in part because of his tariffs.

Separately, members of the U.S. Coast Guard will be getting a similar one-time payment, the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday. The “Devotion to Duty” payments, authorized by Secretary Kristi Noem a day earlier, will be $2,000 because, unlike the “Warrior Dividend,” they are subject to taxes. The amount Coast Guard members take home will be closer to $1,776.

The payments, according to the Coast Guard, will be classified as “special duty pay.” They will be paid for with money in a measure Trump signed in November, after a 43-day shutdown, that funds the government through January.

It’s not the first time Trump has brandished ‘dividends’

Sending money to voters is a timeworn tool for politicians and one that Trump has repeatedly tried to use, including this year.

Trump has for months suggested every American could receive a $2,000 dividend from the import taxes — an effort that seemed designed to try to shore up support for tariffs, which the president has said protect American industries and will lure manufacturing back from overseas.

But that particular pledge appeared to exceed the revenues being generated by his tariffs, according to a November analysis by the right-leaning Tax Foundation. The analysis estimated that the $2,000 payments being promised to taxpayers could add up to between $279.8 billion and $606.8 billion, depending on how they were structured.

The analysis estimated that Trump’s import taxes would produce $158.4 billion in total revenue during 2025 and another $207.5 billion in 2026. That’s not enough money to provide the payments as well as reduce the budget deficit, which Trump has also claimed his tariffs are doing.

Earlier this year, as his Department of Government Efficiency was slashing the U.S. government and its workforce, Trump had briefly proposed sending a DOGE “dividend” back to U.S. citizens.

Neither the tariff dividend or DOGE dividend has come to fruition, and members of Trump’s own party as well as officials in his administration have expressed some skepticism about the idea. There is also the risk that the payments being promised by Trump could push up inflation, as they would likely spur greater consumer spending. Republican lawmakers argued in 2021 that the pandemic relief package from then-President Biden — which included direct payments — helped trigger the run-up in inflation.

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Associated Press writers Rebecca Santana, Konstantin Toropin and Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.