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A U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela could ‘devastate’ its economy and further pressure Maduro

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Now that the U.S. has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and President Donald Trump has declared an oil blockade, the results could “devastate” Venezuela’s struggling economy and put further pressure on President Nicolás Maduro and possible regime change, according to geopolitical and energy analysts.

The big question is how far the U.S. will take the sanctioned oil tanker blockade—Trump’s social media announcement was scant on details—and for how long, because it is unlikely Maduro would willingly step down in the near future, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

“This could be devastating. We’re talking about an economy where more than 80%—perhaps north of 90%—of the foreign exchange revenues for the government comes from oil. The oil is absolutely dominant,” Monaldi said, noting that Venezuela’s only other meaningful exports are modest mining and seafood industries.

The questionably legal effort—a blockade is historically an “act of war”—could result in “hyperinflation” within Venezuela, a further weakening of its currency, an economic recession, and a fuel shortage for its citizenry, he said.

Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but the country produces less than 1% of global oil production. Venezuela’s volumes have plunged from 3.2 million barrels daily in 2000 down to less than 1 million barrels today under the authoritarian socialist regimes of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, from a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment, and escalating U.S. sanctions.

Citing national security concerns over drug trafficking, the U.S. has bombed many boats from Venezuela—again under questionable legal authority—killing more than 80 people thus far, according to the U.S. military. Last week, the U.S. escalated the conflict by seizing the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper for allegedly making repeated, illegal shipments of Venezuelan and Iranian oil. 

Trump went further late on Dec. 16, posting on social media that he is “ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela.”

“Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America,” Trump stated. “It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before—Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.”

Trump is presumably referencing the 2007 expropriation of Venezuela’s oil assets from foreign companies, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, under Chavez.

The U.S. State and Defense departments declined comment, and the White House did not immediately respond to multiple requests for comment.

Regardless, it shouldn’t take too long to figure out how this will play out.

“In a blockade, it’s very easy to identify an oil vessel,” Monaldi said. “We will see how they move from the rhetoric of the present to the actual implementation of policy.”

Logistical questions abound

Trump’s statement specifically cited “sanctioned” oil tankers, but last week’s seizure triggered the turnaround of most vessels away from Venezuela—with a few exceptions—even those that are not facing sanctions. The brave few that did not change course from Venezuela weren’t seized.

So, the big questions now are whether the U.S. will only seize sanctioned tankers and whether the White House will add new sanctions to crude oil vessels that dock in Venezuela, Monaldi said.

“If not, it wouldn’t be a true blockade at all because there are plenty of vessels in the dark fleet,” Monaldi said. “But, if you sanction them while they’re loading the oil, then it is a blockade.”

The dark or shadow fleet is a clandestine network of older oil tankers working with sanctioned nations, such as Iran and Russia, that conceal their oil trips by disabling tracking, using fake identities, and other tactics. The oil tanker Skipper was a part of the dark fleet; it was formally sanctioned three years ago.

The bottom line is it is expensive for the U.S. to seize tankers, including the logistics of transporting the tanker to Galveston, Texas, which is what happened to the Skipper. And new sanctions also take time and a lot of paperwork.

“We are already seeing a tremendous impact just because of the one seizure. We’re seeing vessels turning around that were coming to Venezuela,” Monaldi said. “If all that was happening with just one seizure and the signal they might do more, I would imagine this is going to be a very heavy deterrence. The discounts are going to get so high.”

Because of the preexisting sanctions on Venezuelan oil, about 80% of its exports go to China under heavy discounts.

Monaldi estimates the blockade could easily cut Venezuela’s oil exports in half, placing even greater discounts on the remaining exports. A little more than 15% of Venezuela’s exports go to the U.S. because of Chevron’s special license to operate in the country and partner with state oil company PDVSA.

“Is it possible that Maduro says to Chevron, ‘I’m not allowing you to take any more oil. Why would I allow you to get paid if I cannot benefit?’” Monaldi asked.

In a statement, Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne said, “Chevron’s operations in Venezuela continue without disruption and in full compliance with laws and regulations applicable to its business, as well as the sanctions frameworks provided for by the U.S. government.”

If Venezuela’s oil exports are halved or reduced even further, the country would quickly run out of oil storage and be forced to reduce its own oil production. Eventually turning those oil flows back on takes time and money—often about a year, Monaldi said.

Maduro likely would prioritize domestic refining and fuel production with the remaining supplies, he said, but fuel shortages could still become a factor, further inflaming the Venezuelan populace.

“Even when people get worried about gasoline scarcity, then gasoline scarcity appears because people rush to fill their tanks,” Monaldi said.

But Maduro will cling to power as long as he is able. And it is even possible he sees the blockade as a sign of weakness from Trump, Monaldi added.

“This could also signal to Maduro that [Trump] is not willing to go the military route.”



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From search to discovery: how AI Is redrawing the competitive map for every brand

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In the past, search used to look something like this in Google: “black running shoes, women’s size 8, under $100” – and ten blue links and a few shopping ads likely appeared. A helpful first step, but requiring further research and analysis.

Now, you can ask an even more pointed question – perhaps adding in a preference for arch support, a shopping mile radius – to a large language model (LLM) and get a clear, context-rich answer: “Here are three nearby options that fit your criteria. The top-rated one is available for pickup in 40 minutes.”

It’s an improved interaction, but not at the cost of a more complex user experience. This new way of search is redefining consumer behavior and expectations, and how marketers must approach brand visibility. In fact, it represents a reconfiguration of digital marketing and a new economy of visibility.

As these interactions become more complex and context-rich, the way we measure success must evolve too.

Visibility Is the New KPI

In traditional SEO, success means ranking on page one of Google. In the AI era, success means being part of the answer — cited, mentioned, or described accurately when an AI system responds.

This is not a mere marketing nuance: it’s a structural shift in how digital presence is valued. Companies that understand this will treat AI visibility as a new form of brand capital, something to monitor and manage as carefully as reputation or market share.

Advertising economics are already following this pattern: U.S. advertisers are projected to spend over $25 billion annually on AI-powered search placements by 2029, which is nearly 14% of total search budgets.

But, understanding how visibility is measured is just the first step. To capture it effectively, brands must recognize that product discovery itself is being reconstructed, with two distinct search experiences shaping how users find and interact with information.

Two User Experiences, Two Optimization Models

We now have two search experiences — traditional search and AI-driven search — each serving different user needs.

Frankly, this is the simplest framework to offer, when in fact, it is even more complex and nuanced once you take into account AI agents that act autonomously on behalf of the customer.

Traditional search is navigational, guiding users through lists of pages. Effectively, it points them in the right direction.

Meanwhile, AI-driven search is conversational, contextual, and consultative. It’s able to perform multi-step research, interpret context, and merge data from multiple sources into one synthesized response. For marketers, that means building for two visibility models: in SEO, we optimize for keywords; in AI discovery, we optimize for prompts.

The shift in user behavior is measurable and gaining ground. According to Semrush AI Visibility Index, between August and October 2025:

To stay visible, brands must start by identifying which questions matter most to their business – prioritizing prompts that are both high-volume and high-impact. Irrelevant traffic is wasted effort; rare relevance won’t scale. The sweet spot has always been where volume meets relevance, and AI discovery only raises the stakes—rewarding context, authority, and precision the same way great SEO always has.

As AI-driven and traditional search continue to evolve, the line between them is beginning to blur. Brands that optimize for both experiences today will be best positioned to thrive as these models converge into a single, unified discovery interface.

Preparing for the AI + Traditional Search Convergence

Eventually, you’ll see conversational answers alongside maps, reviews, and transactional links — a mix of synthesis and structure. When that happens, businesses will track two main metrics:

  • Traffic, the traditional measure of visits
  • AI Visibility, a new measure of how often and how accurately a brand appears in AI-generated responses

But visibility alone won’t be enough. The next wave of competition will happen at the content layer.

Brands will need to build for both bots and humans — crafting content that reads naturally, ranks intelligently, and feeds the context these models rely on. It’s a new kind of content development, where clarity for users and machine readability carry equal weight.

When that becomes common, websites will need to work as seamlessly for bots as they do for people. Features like SMS-based authentication or manual verification could block machine-driven transactions entirely. Businesses will need to rethink checkout and navigation to accommodate non-human operators.

While optimizing for visibility and content readiness is essential, the larger shift is economic: the convergence of AI and search is redefining how value is created, measured, and captured across the digital landscape.

AI Discovery and the New Economics of Search

The economics of search are changing.

This convergence of SEO and AI visibility is not a short-term marketing trend. It’s a deeper transformation — the creation of a discovery layer that connects information accuracy, credibility, and commercial outcomes in a continuous loop.

Within five years, we’ll unlikely distinguish between “search engines” and “AI assistants.” Instead, we’ll talk about several intelligent systems from companies such as Google and OpenAI that decide what people see, trust, and buy.

While the system itself is changing, the opportunity remains open. AI Search doesn’t belong only to the biggest players — it’s a reset. Smaller brands can rise faster by being precise, credible, and contextually relevant, while larger enterprises must relearn agility and authority at scale.

In traditional SEO, the strongest often dominated; in AI discovery, the most relevant wins.

Businesses that measure and manage their visibility within this new system will define the next era of digital competition.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



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TikTok agrees U.S. joint venture deal with Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX

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TikTok has signed agreements with three major investors — Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX — to form a new TikTok U.S. joint venture, ensuring the popular social video platform can continue operating in the United States.

The deal is expected to close on Jan. 22, according to an internal memo seen by The Associated Press. In the communication, CEO Shou Zi Chew confirmed to employees that ByteDance and TikTok signed the binding agreements with the consortium.

“I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your continued dedication and tireless work. Your efforts keep us operating at the highest level and will ensure that TikTok continues to grow and thrive in the U.S. and around the world,” Chew wrote in the memo to employees. “With these agreements in place, our focus must stay where it’s always been—firmly on delivering for our users, creators, businesses and the global TikTok community.”

Half of the new TikTok U.S. joint venture will be owned by a group of investors — among them Oracle, Silver Lake and the Emirati investment firm MGX, who will each hold a 15% share. 19.9% of the new app will be held by ByteDance itself, and another 30.1% will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors, according to the memo. The memo did not say who the other investors are and both TikTok and the White House declined to comment.

The U.S. venture will have a new, seven-member majority-American board of directors, the memo said. It will also be subject to terms that “protect Americans’ data and U.S. national security.”

U.S. user data will be stored locally in a system run by Oracle. The memo said U.S. users will continue “enjoying the same experience as today” and advertisers will continue to serve global audiences with no impact from the deal.

TikTok’s algorithm — the secret sauce that powers its addictive video feed — will be retrained on U.S. user data to “ensure the content feed is free from outside manipulation,” the memo said. The U.S. venture will also oversee content moderation and policies within the country.

American officials have previously warned that ByteDance’s algorithm is vulnerable to manipulation by Chinese authorities, who can use it to shape content on the platform in a way that’s difficult to detect.

The algorithm has been a central issue in the security debate over TikTok. China previously maintained the algorithm must remain under Chinese control by law. But the U.S. regulation passed with bipartisan support said any divestment of TikTok must mean the platform cuts ties — specifically the algorithm — with ByteDance.

The deal marks the end of years of uncertainty about the fate of the popular video-sharing platform in the United States. After wide bipartisan majorities in Congress passed — and President Joe Biden signed — a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if it did not find a new owner in the place of China’s ByteDance, the platform was set to go dark on the law’s January 2025 deadline. For a several hours, it did. But on his first day in office, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep it running while his administration tries to reach an agreement for the sale of the company.

Three more executive orders followed, as Trump, without a clear legal basis, continued to extend the deadline for a TikTok deal. The second was in April, when White House officials believed they were nearing a deal to spin off TikTok into a new company with U.S. ownership that fell apart after China backed out following Trump’s tariff announcement. The third came in June, then another in September, which Trump said would allow TikTok to continue operating in the United States in a way that meets national security concerns.

TikTok has more than 170 million users in the U.S. About 43% of U.S. adults under the age of 30 say they regularly get news from TikTok, higher than any other social media app including YouTube, Facebook and Instagram, according to a Pew Research Center report published this fall.

Shares of Oracle jumped $9.07, or 5%, to $189.10 in after-hours trading.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Stocks: Bank of America warns fund managers just triggered a contrarian ‘sell’ signal

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Bank of America’s “Bull & Bear Indicator” rose from 7.9 to 8.5 in the last few days, triggering its contrarian “sell” signal for risk assets, according to a note from analyst Michael Hartnett and his colleagues seen by Fortune this morning. The indicator is derived from BofA’s regular fund manager survey, which asks 200-plus investment managers about their appetite for risk. The logic of the Bull & Bear Indicator is that when everyone in the market is bullish, it’s time to leave.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.25% this morning. The last session closed up 0.79%. The index remains a little less than 2% beneath its all-time high. Markets in Asia largely closed up this morning. Europe and the UK were flat in early trading. Whether stocks are overvalued—especially tech stocks—has been a running theme in the equity markets all year long. 

BofA’s sell signal has been activated 16 times since 2002, Hartnett says. On average, the MSCI All Country World Index (an index that represents stocks globally) declined by 2.4% afterwards, the bank says, with a maximum average drawdown of 8.5% by three months later.

The indicator has a record of being right 63% of the time—so it isn’t flawless. But BofA also notes that investors are in an unusually “risk-on” mood in equities right now: Last week saw a record inflow of $145 billion into equity exchange-traded funds, and the second-highest ever weekly inflow of money into U.S. stocks ($77.9 billion), Hartnett wrote. The indicator thus implies that a smart investor might want to become fearful given that others are too greedy.

Investor sentiment roughly correlates with sentiment in the Purchasing Managers Index, a survey of supply chain managers responsible for corporate buying. Right now, investors have broken ranks with the PMI, with the former being much more positive about future than the latter. They appear to be expecting the PMI to follow their lead, Hartnett argues.

“Investors [appear to be] bull positioned for ‘run-it-hot’ PMI & [earnings per share] acceleration on rate cuts, tariff cuts, tax cuts,” he told clients.

Conversely, assuming the market does not pull back—or a revesal is temporary—he predicts EPS growth of 9% for stocks in 2026 despite increased U.S. unemployment, and the threat of “bond vigilantes slowing [the] AI capex boom.”

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% this morning. The last session closed up 0.79%. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.03%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.65%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.59%. 
  • Bitcoin was at $88K.
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