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It was the week before Christmas, and Americans got one more dispiriting look at the jobs market. 

After a year of stalled hiring and “ghost jobs,” Americans are going back to school, retraining, and trying to get off the sidelines. But they’ve been flying blind after the longest federal government shutdown in history clouded the picture on job growth and unemployment. Finally, the October and November figures confirmed what most of them seem to feel already: The labor market has no room for them.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021. But this isn’t a standard recession: The BLS isn’t seeing layoffs happen as much in the private sector. Instead, it continues to see a virtual hiring freeze, two-thirds of a year after the bottom fell out of employment growth in April.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note the jump in unemployment reflects a “transformation” in the labor force. Rather than unemployment being driven by layoffs, he said, “it was driven by an increase of individuals formerly not in the labor force.” In other words, people who had been without work for so long they weren’t considered to be in the labor force started looking during the holiday, and didn’t find any takers. 

Changes could be driven by ‘idiosyncratic spikes’

That shift is becoming increasingly visible in the data. During the past year, the total number of unemployed Americans has risen by more than 700,000. The fastest-growing segment isn’t people who lost jobs, but “re-entrants,” or workers returning after a period of inactivity. That number spiked roughly 20% year-over-year, outpacing every other category of unemployed, according to a note from Nicole Bachaud, ZipRecruiter’s labor economist. 

Bank of America Research, in a note by U.S. economist Shruti Mishra and her team, noted this increase was “noisy,” driven by one-time effects and “idiosyncratic spikes.” One such example she noted was the indirect impacts of DOGE. These “furloughed employees,” she said, likely drove this spike in unemployment. Leisure and hospitality jobs also fell in November, “likely due to slower air travel” as the FAA struggled with staffing. Air-traffic controllers were ordered to work without pay for over a month and the government slashed hundreds of flights, a situation the Trump administration addressed by only giving post-shutdown bonuses to the 776 workers who had perfect shutdown attendance, leaving out nearly 20,000 others. 

Bachaud wrote she saw the increase of re-entrants as a “positive” signal, though, for the labor market, since it counteracts the dual negative forces of “an aging population and lower immigration.” It suggests people who were previously sidelined—by caregiving, health issues, or discouragement—are willing or compelled to try again, “rebalancing the labor force,” Bachaud wrote. 

But in many cases, re-entry might not be a sign of optimism so much as a necessity. Pandemic savings are gone, inflation has strained household budgets, and higher borrowing costs have made living on one income more difficult to sustain. As financial cushions thin, the rebalancing Bachaud referenced is a function of the economy pushing more Americans back into the job search.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk’s short-lived effort to reduce the size of the federal government, also clearly drove a sharp federal payroll drop: The federal government shed 162,000 jobs in October alone as government employees’ “fork in the road” buyout offers took effect. Data suggests when Uncle Sam moves to aggressively shed headcount, it has a chilling effect on the entire private sector.

How the job search is changing 

The average job search is also lengthening, another sign the hiring door is locked. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more has climbed more than 15% during the past year, now accounting for nearly one-in- four unemployed workers, Bachaud calculated. At the same time, the ranks of marginally attached and discouraged workers—those hovering at the edge of the labor force—are also growing, suggesting some re-entrants may be cycling back out after failing to land work.

Wages are also no longer providing much of a cushion. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in November, slowing annual growth to 3.5%, the weakest pace since 2021. This slowing down in wage growth, Roach wrote, “may turn out to be a big story for the job market in the coming months.”

Slower wage gains have the positive of easing inflation pressures—beneficial in a time in which more Americans complain about affordability—but they also limit income growth for households already facing tighter job prospects.

Industry data reinforces the imbalance. Outside of health care, social assistance, and construction, hiring has been flat to negative in recent months. Seasonal hiring—which typically helps absorb marginal workers over the holidays—has “disappointed this year,” particularly in retail, leisure, hospitality, and transportation, Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note.

Adams described the labor market as having “hit an air pocket” in the fourth quarter. Federal job losses amplified the slowdown, but private-sector hiring outside a narrow set of industries has also failed to keep pace with rising labor-force participation.

The S&P 500 greeted the news with a disappointed shrug, down 0.8% intraday, as the jobs report was balanced by an October retail sales report that surprised to the upside, showing Americans are still splashing the cash, driving the all-important consumer spending that powers two-thirds of GDP. But as a general lump of coal in the stocking, Mishra concluded after so many months of strong spending that appears bifurcated by income cohort and a “low-hire, low-fire” jobs market, “the consumer labor conundrum remains.”



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‘Trump Accounts’ for kids get funding boost from Dalio and BlackRock

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A new savings vehicle, dubbed “Trump accounts,” is designed to help the rising generation of American children build wealth into adulthood. 

Under the multitrillion-dollar tax and spending bill signed by President Donald Trump in July, the federal government will contribute $1,000 to accounts set up for every American baby born in the next few years. 

The initiative got a boost on Dec. 2 when billionaires Michael and Susan Dell announced a $6.25 billion gift to seed accounts for millions of older children as well. Other big names in business and finance, including Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio and BlackRock Inc., soon followed with smaller pledges of their own.

Lawmakers significantly scaled back the flexibility and tax benefits of the program since the initial proposal. While the accounts could serve as a springboard for long-term savings, there are other investment vehicles, especially 529 plans, that offer greater tax advantages.

Here’s how the accounts are supposed to work and how the new infusion of money might affect the program.

How will Trump accounts work?

For each account, annual contributions would be capped at $5,000, an amount that would be adjusted for inflation. The idea is for parents, relatives and even the employers of caregivers to pitch in money over time. The federal government, as well as state, local or tribal governments, could also contribute and aren’t subject to the cap.

The accounts would be locked up until the child turns 18. At that point, Trump accounts essentially become individual retirement accounts, which can be used penalty-free for certain expenses such as higher education or first-time home purchases. 

Only one account is allowed per person. The US Treasury will issue regulations requiring the funds be invested in mutual or exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) that “primarily” hold US stocks. Funds must charge low fees and not use leverage, according to the law signed in July.

Another exception to the contribution limit applies to nonprofits, including 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) organizations, which could give to recipients based on where they live. 

Parents, relatives, employers or philanthropists can contribute to a designated recipient’s Trump account through the year they turn 17. The Internal Revenue Service has said parents will be allowed to start contributing on behalf of children starting on July 4, 2026. 

Also, through a pilot program, the US government would contribute $1,000 to accounts for babies born from the beginning of 2025 through the end of 2028. Caregivers will be able to sign up children for an account through an online portal administered by the IRS.

What’s the significance of the contributions by business leaders? 

The commitments from corporations and well-heeled donors demonstrate how companies and business leaders are eager to demonstrate public support for a program that Trump views as part of his presidential legacy.

Dalio said his foundation would donate $250 each to roughly 300,000 “Trump accounts” for children in Connecticut. BlackRock said it would match the federal government’s contributions to the accounts for employees’ children, seeding them with $1,000 each.

Those pledges follow the Dells’ announcement in early December of a $6.25 billion gift aimed at seeding accounts for 25 million American children age 10 and under who were too old to be eligible for the initial government funding. The donation targets kids living in ZIP Codes with median incomes below $150,000.

Each eligible account would receive $250 from the Dells. While that amount is unlikely to grow into a significant nest egg even over a couple decades, Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies Inc., said when he disclosed the gift that he hoped to inspire others to give as well. 

What will beneficiaries be able to do with their money? 

Trump accounts can’t be touched until age 18. At that point, they’re essentially treated like traditional individual retirement accounts. As with IRAs, money can be withdrawn early for certain qualified expenses, including higher education, up to $10,000 toward first-time home purchases and $5,000 per child for birth or adoption expenses. Other distributions trigger a 10% penalty.

What are the tax advantages of Trump accounts?  

The accounts grow tax-free, and wouldn’t be taxed until money is withdrawn. Those taxes are complicated, and the US Treasury hasn’t yet issued rules on how exactly they will work. The law says recipients don’t pay taxes on any post-tax contributions to their accounts, such as those from parents and relatives. But any gains or tax-free contributions from government, philanthropists or employers will be taxed like ordinary income upon withdrawal. On top of that, beneficiaries would also face the 10% IRA withdrawal penalty if money is used for non-qualifying expenses. 

What changed about the proposal before it became law in July? 

Lawmakers tweaked the Trump accounts so that distributions will be taxed as ordinary income. Early versions of the bill said distributions would be taxed at long-term capital gains rates, which are much lower than those on ordinary income. The accounts also were changed so that they follow IRA withdrawal rules, meaning a recipient’s small business startup costs no longer qualify for penalty-free distributions.

How would Trump accounts compare with 529 college savings plans?

Trump accounts have far fewer tax benefits than 529 college savings plans, which also have far higher contribution limits. 

With a 529 plan, withdrawals are tax-free for qualified educational expenses, and contributions are often eligible for state income tax deductions. Trump account holders would still pay taxes on withdrawals. 

How much would the plan cost the federal government?  

The Trump accounts program will cost about $15 billion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a tiny fraction of the overall tax and spending package approved in July.

Where did the idea come from? What do supporters and skeptics say?

An idea for government-funded “baby bonds” was first proposed by economist Darrick Hamilton, a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York, as a way to help poor Americans build assets and narrow the racial wealth gap. Several states, including Connecticut, have set up baby bond programs or are in the process of doing so. Hamilton has been skeptical of Trump accounts, calling them an idea to “address wealth inequality on the cheap.” 

One impetus for the overall approach appears to have come from Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, who along with economist Robert Shapiro last year began promoting the idea of accounts seeded with $1,000 for newborns. It’s a “simple solution to help people be connected to financial markets so everybody in the country shares in the wealth,” Hassett said at a presentation to the Aspen Institute in 2024.

Greg Leiserson, an economist who served in the Biden and Obama administrations, warned “tax-preferred accounts primarily benefit families that already have spare time and money, not the families that need the most help.”



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Ghislaine Maxwell asks judge to set her free, citing ‘substantial new evidence’ of spoiled trial

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Jeffrey Epstein’s former girlfriend and longtime associate Ghislaine Maxwell asked a federal judge on Wednesday to set aside her sex trafficking conviction and free her from a 20-year prison sentence, saying “substantial new evidence” has emerged proving that constitutional violations spoiled her trial.

Maxwell maintained in a habeas petition she has promised to file since August that information that would have resulted in her exoneration at her 2021 trial was withheld and false testimony was presented to the jury.

She said the cumulative effect of the constitutional violations resulted in a “complete miscarriage of justice.”

A habeas petition (or writ of habeas corpus petition) is a legal request for a court to review the legality of someone’s detention, demanding that the custodian (like a prison official) bring the prisoner before a judge to justify the imprisonment, serving as a fundamental safeguard against unlawful confinement and arbitrary detention by ensuring due process. Filed by or on behalf of someone in custody, it challenges constitutional violations, such as ineffective legal counsel or unfair trials, and seeks release or other relief, often as a last resort after appeals are exhausted.

“Since the conclusion of her trial, substantial new evidence has emerged from related civil actions, Government disclosures, investigative reports, and documents demonstrating constitutional violations that undermined the fairness of her proceeding,” the filing in Manhattan federal court said. “In the light of the full evidentiary record, no reasonable juror would have convicted her.”

The filing came just two days before records in her case were scheduled to be released publicly as a result of President Donald Trump’s signing of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The law, signed after months of public and political pressure, requires the Justice Department to provide the public with Epstein-related records by Dec. 19.

Forced to act by the new transparency law, the Justice Department has said it plans to release 18 categories of investigative materials gathered in the massive sex trafficking probe, including search warrants, financial records, notes from interviews with victims, and data from electronic devices.

Epstein, a millionaire financier, was arrested in July 2019 on sex trafficking charges. A month later, he was found dead in his cell at a New York federal jail and the death was ruled a suicide. Maxwell, a British socialite, was arrested a year later and was convicted of sex trafficking in December 2021. She was interviewed by the Justice Department’s second-in-command in July and was soon afterward moved from a federal prison in Florida to a prison camp in Texas.

After the Justice Department asked a New York federal judge to permit grand jury and discovery materials gathered prior to her trial to be released publicly, attorney David Markus wrote on her behalf that while Maxwell now “does not take a position” on unsealing documents from her case, doing so “would create undue prejudice so severe that it would foreclose the possibility of a fair retrial” if her habeas petition succeeds.

The records, Markus said, “contain untested and unproven allegations.”

Last week, Judge Paul A. Engelmayer in Manhattan granted the Justice Department’s request to publicly release the materials.

On Wednesday, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said during a news conference on another topic that he would follow the law and the judge’s orders pertaining to the records.

Engelmayer, who along with other judges had previously rejected Justice Department unsealing requests before the transparency law was passed, said the materials “do not identify any person other than Epstein and Maxwell as having had sexual contact with a minor.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Coinbase announced stock trading and new Kalshi-based prediction markets

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Coinbase is taking its biggest step yet into the broader financial sector. On Wednesday, the company announced customers will now be able to trade stocks on its platform, and also place bets on a wide range of events through a partnership with prediction market startup Kalshi. The moves signal that Coinbase is moving beyond its longtime roots as a cryptocurrency company, and are likely to intensify its rivalry with fintech firms like Robinhood.

The stock trading and prediction markets announcements came at a San Francisco event titled System Upgrade that featured stage presentations by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives, who also announced new trading features and a platform called Coinbase Business aimed at startups and small businesses. The event comes as the company is seeking to brand itself as an “everything exchange.”

Notably, the company did not announce a release date for its own cryptocurrency token, which executives have teased in recent months, but without providing additional details beyond saying they want to ensure any token launch takes place in a fair manner.

The new stock trading feature is the most significant announcement by far as it will be a crucial test of whether Coinbase can leverage its dominant crypto brand to expand into other sectors. It will also allow it to compete more directly with Robinhood, which made its name as a stock-trading app, but has since made significant inroads into crypto.

Coinbase will initially offer only a curated list of major stocks and ETFs, but says it will expand this to thousands of other stocks in coming months. The company says stock trading will be available 24 hours a day on five days of the week, and that there will be no fee to trade. Early next year, Coinbase plans to roll out perpetual futures for stocks—a type of derivative pioneered by the crypto industry that lets traders hold options that do not expire. The perpetual futures offering will only be available outside the U.S.

Coinbase’s new stock offerings come at a time when the financial market is beginning to embrace tokenization. The term describes turning a variety of assets into tokens that can be traded on a blockchain, a process that results in near-instant settlement and allows traders to more efficiently deploy collateral. Currently, firms like BlackRock are offering tokenized versions of Treasury Bill and money market funds. Tokenized stock offerings are still at a preliminary stage, but are expected to gain traction rapidly, which could play to Coinbase’s strengths given the firm’s longtime crypto expertise.

For its prediction markets offering, Coinbase will source its order flow from Kalshi, which is the same model used by Robinhood. In practical terms, this entails acting as a distribution platform for the startup, which has grown exponentially this year by offering a new form of betting that invites users to wager against each other on the outcome of events ranging from elections to interest rate cuts to sports games. The Kalshi partnership will likely entail a revenue split of the small fee the platform collects on the wagers.

Stocks and prediction markets have the potential to offer Coinbase significant new revenue streams, and further the company’s long-stated goal of diversifying its business beyond crypto trading. Coinbase’s stock is roughly flat from the start off the year, having giving up big gains in recent months as crypto markets have sagged and the price of Bitcoin has fallen around 30% from its October highs.

Coinbase also used the San Francisco event to announce that its Base App is now available in 140 countries. The app, which debuted this summer, aims to let ordinary people launch financial and creative products on the company’s blockchain and earn a share of the revenue they create.

Other services unveiled by Coinbase on Wednesday included expanded access to the Solana blockchain via a decentralized exchange, and an AI-powered wealth management tool called Coinbase Advisor.



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