By: Matthew Weatherby

Alabama and Oklahoma are set to square off on Friday night in Norman to kick off the 2025-26 edition of the College Football Playoffs.

Both of these teams enter the playoffs with more questions than answers. But, for both sides, those questions stem from injury problems that have plagued both teams in the latter half of this season. For Alabama, though, one question has been resolved, and that is whether Kalen Deboer will still be their coach for the future. While Kalen recommitted himself to the Tide on Sunday, that will do them no good in terms of the true key on Friday, who makes it off the injury report.

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Injuries

For Alabama, they are just hoping to get some guys back on offense. Jam Miller, Josh Cuevas, and Kam Dewberry all missed the SEC Championship. A game where Alabama’s offense was only able to score 7 points and put up a total of -3 rushing yards against Georgia. Getting some continuity back on the offensive side of the football for Alabama is going to be necessary against an Oklahoma defense that ranked first in the SEC in total defense this year. Alabama is also hopeful to get standout D-lineman LT Overton back from injury after he missed the SEC title game. (It must also be noted that there is a RUMOR going around regarding a potential Ty Simpson injury that he has been dealing with over the last couple of weeks)

On Oklahoma’s side of things, they hope to get R. Mason Thomas back from injury. Prior to his injury against Tennessee, Thomas had totaled 6.5 sacks over 8 games, along with 2 forced fumbles. His play over 8 games was good enough for him to be voted to the All-SEC First Team Defense.

I do have one more thing on Oklahoma’s injuries. What about John Mateer? After his hand injury against Auburn, the Oklahoma offense has appeared handicapped. Mateer has only thrown for more than 225 yards in a game once since the injury, and that was their regular-season finale against LSU, where he also threw 3 interceptions. But I have a theory regarding Mateer’s health. His hand needed time to heal after the surgery, and that was something he was’t really afforded. The amount of time needed for the hand to heal was supposed to be a couple of weeks. The Sooners will have had 3 weeks off between games come Friday night. Was this the amount of time needed for Mateer’s hand to heal?

On the field

I talked about those Alabama injuries earlier, and they are important because the version of Alabama’s offense everyone saw in Atlanta will not be enough if it shows up in Norman, Oklahoma, on Friday night. The pieces that they hope to get back should lead to that. Jam Miller is a much more well rounded Running Back than the guys sitting behind him. But where his value lies is in his pass protection. It was something that Alabama struggled with in the SEC Championship. In addition, Josh Cuevas and Kam Dewberry will also be helpful in protecting Ty Simpson. Cuevas’s being back will have a big impact on Alabama in 3rd down situations. He was Ty Simpson’s safety blanket all year.

Bama’s offense will be in better shape health-wise, but will it be enough? All outside factors have shifted away from Alabama in this game. They will not have had the same amount of rest that Oklahoma has had. Maybe that is a good or bad thing; you never really know when it comes to longer rest for teams, but when you look at Alabama’s injury report, you would assume that fairs better for the Sooners. Not to mention, Oklahoma will be playing at home. A place where they beat the Crimson Tide 24-3 last season. For Alabama even if they get those guys back to full health will it matter?

Oklahoma’s defense, by metrics, is better than Georgia’s. People also seem to forget that, prior to Alabama losing those guys on offense to injury, they still were not a particularly efficient or effective running team. They also have not been able to stretch the ball downfield very much this year. That is an area where you need Ryan Williams to step up. He has not been the same guy that he was last year. And without the threat of explosives, the Alabama offense will then be tasked with driving the ball down the field consistently against this Oklahoma defense. When you’re asked to do that without a consistent running game, your margin for error is razor-thin.

Why Oklahoma could Roll

If Oklahoma’s offense finds itself after the break, I do not think that this game will be particularly close. People talk about Alabama’s issues after their injuries, but they were always present for Alabama. The injuries they suffered just exposed them to a greater extent. For Oklahoma, John Mateer was heisman candidate prior to his injury. All you need from Mateer and this offense on Friday is 2-3 good drives. 17 points could be enough to win this game for Oklahoma.

This game will obviously be about the defenses, but I believe that Oklahoma’s offense has a higher ceiling than Alabama’s coming out of the break. As for Bama, this is a game where they have to win the margins. Something they did not do against Oklahoma earlier in the year, or the last time we saw them against Georgia. If Alabama were to win this game, it would be because it also won the turnover battle, time of possession, and average starting field position.

Prediction + Betting/Analytics

Prediction: Oklahoma

Spread: Alabama -1.5

According to ESPN Analytics, Alabama has a 50.9% chance to win on Friday.

After a Thursday night loss to the Falcons that dropped the out of first place in the NFC South they got some good news Sunday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reclaimed first place in the NFC South after a dramatic turn of events. Thanks to the New Orleans Saints’ last-second rally to defeat the Carolina Panthers 17-16, Tampa Bay moved back into the division lead at 7-7 with three weeks left in the regular season. The Saints’ upset win not only spoiled Carolina’s momentum but also reshuffled the playoff picture, giving the Buccaneers renewed control of their destiny.

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Saints Stun Panthers in Last-Minute Thriller

Sunday’s clash at the Caesars Superdome was a showcase of resilience by New Orleans. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough engineered two late scoring drives, capped by kicker Charlie Smyth’s 47-yard field goal with just two seconds remaining. The Panthers, who had led most of the afternoon, were undone by costly penalties—11 flags for 103 yards—and a sputtering rushing attack that managed only 127 yards. Wide receiver Chris Olave came alive in the fourth quarter, hauling in four catches for 78 yards, including a 12-yard grab that tied for a score. Carolina’s miscues opened the door for the Saints, who completed the season sweep of their division rival and knocked the Panthers into a tie with Tampa Bay.

Buccaneers Control Their Own Fate

For Tampa Bay, the Saints’ victory was a lifeline. Despite dropping five of their last six games, the Buccaneers now sit atop the NFC South with a chance to secure a fifth straight division crown. The path forward is clear: win the remaining divisional matchups. Tampa Bay travels to Charlotte next Sunday to face the Panthers in a pivotal Week 16 showdown. They then host the Miami Dolphins before closing the season against Carolina once more1. With the Falcons and Saints effectively eliminated from contention, the division race boils down to Tampa Bay and Carolina. If the Buccaneers can steady their form, they will not only clinch the South but also lock in a playoff berth. The stakes are high, but the opportunity is theirs to seize.

Todd Bowles walked into the postgame press conference knowing the truth: his future in Tampa Bay now rides on the final three games of the season. The Buccaneers blew a 28–14 fourth‑quarter lead and handed the Atlanta Falcons a 29–28 win, a collapse that mirrored the team’s month‑long freefall. Bowles didn’t hide his frustration, and his message hit harder than any hit delivered on the field.

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Evans Delivers, and Bowles Sends a Message

Mike Evans returned from a broken clavicle and played like a man determined to drag the Buccaneers forward. He caught six passes for 132 yards, drew multiple penalties, and showed visible disgust as he walked off the field after the loss. Bowles praised him with purpose.

“He played winning football. He cares,” Todd Bowles said. “He’s one of the guys that cares. He gave his heart. He gave his all.”

Todd Bowles didn’t need to say the rest out loud. His tone made it clear: not enough players match Evans’ urgency. When pressed on who lacks that edge, Bowles backtracked, but the message already landed.

“They all care. It’s just a matter of execution,” Bowles said. “There’s nobody out there trying to mess it up. But at some point you’ve got to get it right. This is a player‑driven team in the last four or five weeks. You’ve got to execute. They’ve got to hold each other accountable.”
(Reporting supported by NFL.com’s transcript of Bowles’ comments NFL and USA Today’s coverage of his postgame remarks USA TODAY.)

Mayfield Takes the Blame and Challenges the Locker Room

Baker Mayfield didn’t dodge responsibility. He threw a late interception and owned it immediately. He also echoed Bowles’ challenge to the roster.

“We have talent. Talent doesn’t get you anything,” Mayfield said. “Doing the work and executing on game day does. We didn’t do that.”

Mayfield didn’t sugarcoat the stakes.

“We have to win out to get to the playoffs. To win the division, we have to win out. If the guys don’t handle this the right way, then we have a much deeper issue.

What’s Working: The Run Game Shows Life

The Buccaneers produced 88 yards on 22 carries and created opportunities to control the clock. They didn’t lean on the run game enough, especially with a late lead. The ground attack gave them balance, but Bowles and the offense never fully committed to it.

What Needs Help: The Defense Collapses Again

The defense failed in every critical moment. Tampa Bay couldn’t pressure the quarterback, couldn’t cover tight ends, and couldn’t tackle in space. Atlanta faced third‑and‑28, gained 14 yards, and then converted fourth‑and‑14 on the game‑winning drive — a sequence that defined the night.

The Bucs surrendered 365 passing yards and recorded only one sack on an immobile Kirk Cousins. The numbers matched the eye test: the defense broke when it mattered most.

Stock Up: Mike Evans

Evans returned with fire, production, and leadership. His 132 yards and emotional edge set the tone. He played like a captain trying to save a season.

Stock Down: The Offensive Line

The offensive line allowed five sacks and constant pressure. The unit never settled, and its struggles disrupted the rhythm of the offense throughout the night.

Injuries Continue to Pile Up

The Buccaneers lost CB Zyon McCollum (hip) during the game. LG Ben Bredeson remained out after landing on injured reserve. DB Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder), LB SirVocea Dennis (hip), TE Cade Otton (knee), and CB Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) all missed the matchup.

Next Steps: A Season on the Brink

Tampa Bay travels to Carolina next, while the Panthers play at New Orleans on Sunday. The Buccaneers still control their playoff path, but control means nothing if they can’t finish games.

The Final Word: Bowles and the Bucs Still Hold Their Fate — But Time Is Running Out

The Buccaneers created this crisis, but they also hold the power to escape it. Bowles’ future, the team’s playoff hopes, and the direction of the franchise all hinge on the final three games. The ship hasn’t sunk yet. The question now is simple:

Can they steady it in time?