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Jobs outlook 2026: ADP’s Nela Richardson doesn’t see Wall Street’s ‘rosy’ picture

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For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady.

Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result—after all, the U.S. economy’s performance has been above expectations since the pandemic, so why not take a bullish stance in the face of huge fiscal stimulus?

Well, beneath the relatively robust macroeconomic picture, cracks are beginning to show. Those tremors are already being felt; just look at the Fed’s decision to cut the base rate yesterday despite arguments that, under normal circumstances, there would be no particular reason to. Markets expected the cut based on the labor outlook, which is showing some signs of weakness in what Fed chairman Jerome Powell has called a “low-hire, low-fire” economy.

That weakness looks likely to become something of a fixture in 2026, according to ADP’s chief economist, Dr Nela Richardson. ADP’s take on the economy has grown in prominence this year, partly due to the government shutdown which meant public payroll data wasn’t published. In the void came data from ADP, which shares private payroll data insights.

Unlike her economist peers on Wall Street, Richardson tells Fortune: “We’re tracking changes in real time, it’s as high frequency as payroll data [can] get and we have not seen this rosy picture for 2026 in the data. I think [when people] point to an improved labor market next year, they’re highlighting a couple of things in the macro economy, while we’re looking at this very granular data set of private employment.

“They’re highlighting maybe a couple of rate cuts, they’re highlighting some tax advantages on the fiscal side, and they’re probably highlighting some AI and investment paying off—and certainly they’re probably adding some clarity in terms of trade policy and resolving some of the macro [questions]. All fantastic attributes, but it takes longer for those to trickle to mom and pop.”

Richardson points to the latest jobs reporting from her company: U.S. private employment dropped by 32,000 roles in November, lead by weakness from smaller businesses. Companies with between one and 19 employees axed 46,000 roles, while those with 20 to 49 employees cut 74,000. Conversely, companies with 500-plus employees added 39,000 employees.

“Tiny firms are a big chunk of employment, but the tiny firms are making tiny moves, and they’re moving all in the same direction,” Richardson added. “It could be as small as not hiring two teenagers at the bakery or foregoing that delivery driver over a certain season, it doesn’t mean it’s a big, huge layoff, it’s not replacing a worker here or there, and those changes add up. 

“If you’re making those micro moves, micro decisions for mom and pop [businesses], these macro drivers are less likely to influence your patterns.”

A rapidly evolving picture

Once upon a time, a sound work ethic and perseverance were enough to get you a foot on the career ladder. In 2025, that’s no longer the case—just ask the business leaders at the top of some of America’s largest corporations.

And while it’s true Gen Z are facing an entirely different job market to their parents, the rules of engagement are evolving so rapidly that market entrants one year to the next are facing a different set of hoops to jump through—making the picture for 2026 all the more complex.

These shifts have not happened in a vacuum, says Richardson, but are more a culmination of trends over the past five years. The so-called “Great Resignation” and the advancement of hybrid work are chief among them. Hybrid work, for example, means the pool of competition has expanded rapidly with hiring managers no longer constrained to a certain geography.

Likewise, “the Great Resignation meant people were able to demand their own terms,” Richardson added. “That meant hybrid work, that meant higher salaries and bonuses, all kinds of promotions happened during that time. Why leave?”

These factors mean the goalposts are constantly changing for market entrants: “It’s not even generation to generation,” Richardson says. “It’s your older brother and sister who graduated three or four years ago, it’s not even their job market anymore.”



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Co-working provider JustCo CEO sees commonalities with hotels: ‘It’s a hospitality business’

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Kong Wan Sing, the founder and CEO of JustCo, one of Asia’s largest co-working space providers, doesn’t quite think of himself as leading an office company. Instead, he sees parallels with a different property business: Hotels.

“It’s a hospitality business. People come to us not just for the network, but also for the hospitality,” he told Fortune. “You need to serve them. You have to take care of their needs, like serving the customers who are coming to look for them in the office.”

Kong and JustCo are expanding their presence in Asia even as employers and employees continue to fight a battle about flexible work and returning to the office. Globally, corporate giants ranging from Amazon to JPMorgan have called workers back to the office full-time. But employees tout the benefits of working from home and hybrid work, forcing employers and office designers to get creative in how they bring people back. 

The company is also expanding into new markets regionally, including Malaysia and India. In the longer run, they’re also looking to move into countries in North Asia and the Middle East.

“After entering all these markets, we will be truly covering all the key cities in Asia-Pacific,” says Kong. He’s even considering returning to mainland China, after JustCo exited the market in 2022 due to tight social distancing regulations during the COVID pandemic.

JustCo just entered the Vietnam market with a new office along Ho Chi Minh City’s waterfront. The Vietnamese city is the tenth urban market in Asia for JustCo. It’s also a return of sorts for Kong, who was first exposed to the idea of a flexi-office in Ho Chi Minh City several decades ago. 

JustCo’s story

Kong Wan Sing founded JustCo in Singapore in 2011. Following a regional expansion drive in 2015, it now operates 48 offices across Asia-Pacific, including in major cities like Seoul, Bangkok, Taipei, Melbourne, and Sydney. Kong himself hails from a family of entrepreneurs; his parents operate garment factories in nearby Malaysia. “There’s genes inside me to build a business,” he says. 

In the early 2000s, Kong was an employee of Singaporean real estate investment company Mapletree, working out of a flexi-office in Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City. (A flexi-office is a modern workspace where employees don’t have assigned desks, but instead choose from various work zones including hot desks, quiet pods, and collaborative areas.)

The experience opened his eyes to the value of flexible workspaces, and he saw a business opportunity in Asia, where such spaces were still few and far between. 

Kong notes that, just three years ago, just under 4% of all offices in Asia-Pacific were flexi-offices. It’s since risen to over 5%, but that’s still half the level seen in more developed markets in Europe and the U.S. Yet JustCo’s CEO says he’s seeing a “surge” in Asia: “The growth is definitely much faster than European or American countries.”

JustCo also leases small offices for businesses to rent. Sixty percent of JustCo’s clients are multinational corporations looking for space for a regional office, Kong said. Companies like Chinese tech giant Tencent and U.S. vaccine maker Moderna use JustCo for their local offices. 

New brands

JustCo has since broadened its offerings to potential renters, launching two new brands: “THE COLLECTIVE” and “the boring office.”

The former is a luxury co-working space, equipped with premium white-glove services like daily breakfasts and aperitif hours, and twice-a-day office cleaning. The first such space was launched in Tokyo in March.

“Japan is a very mature market, and people in Japan—they appreciate luxury stuff,” said Kong, when asked why the country was chosen to debut its premium brand. Kong and his team has since launched THE COLLECTIVE in Bangkok and Taipei; the company will bring the concept to Singapore and India in 2026.

“The boring office” sits on the other end of the spectrum, catering to firms that want a stripped-down solution. “When you go to the boring office, there’s no cleaning [of rooms] every day, only once a week,” Kong says. “And the pantry is a very basic pantry that provides only water—there’s no coffee, nothing.” The first space under that brand was launched in Singapore in July.

These three brands cater to companies’ differing needs, and are priced along a sliding scale. 

The firm’s luxury offices are 20 to 30% more costly than the classic JustCo workspace, while the boring office’s spaces are cheaper by roughly the same amount, Kong explains.



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Creative workers won’t be replaced by AI, they will become ‘directors’ managing AI agents

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AI won’t automate creative jobs—but the way workers do them is about to change fundamentally. That’s according to executives from some of the world’s largest enterprise companies who spoke at the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco earlier this week.

“Most of us are producers today,” Nancy Xu, vice president of AI and Agentforce at Salesforce, told the audience. “Most of what we do is we take some objective and we say, ‘Okay, my goal is now to spend the next eight hours today to figure out how to chase after this customer, or increase my CSAT score, or to close this amount of revenue.”

With AI agents handling more tasks, Xu said that workers will shift “from producers to more directors.” Instead of asking, “How do I accomplish the goal?” they’ll instead focus on, “What are the goals that I want to accomplish, and then how do I delegate those goals to AI?” she said.

Creative and sales professionals are increasingly anxious about AI automation as tools like chatbots and AI image generators have proved to be good at doing many creative tasks in sectors like marketing, customer service, and graphic design. Companies are already deploying AI agents to take on tasks like handling customer questions, generating marketing content, and assisting with sales outreach. 

Pointing to a recent project with electric-vehicle maker Rivian, Elisabeth Zornes, chief customer officer at Autodesk, said that the company’s AI-powered tools enabled Rivian to test designs through digital wind tunnels rather than clay models. “It shaved off about two years of their development cycle,” Zornes said.

As AI takes on some of these lower-level tasks, Zornes said, workers can focus on more creative projects.

“With AI, the floor has been raised, but so has the ceiling,” she added. “We have an opportunity to create more, to be more imaginative.”

The uneven impact of AI

The shift to AI-augmented work may not benefit all workers equally, however.

Salesforce’s Xu said AI’s impact won’t be evenly distributed between high and low performers. “The near-term impact of AI will largely be that we’re going to take the bottom 50 percentile performers inside a role and bring them into the top 50 percentile,” she said. “If you’re in the top 10 percentile, the superstar salespeople, creatives, the impact of AI is actually much less.”

While leaders were keen to emphasize that AI will augment, rather than replace, creative workers, the shift could reshape some traditional career ladders and impact workforce development. If AI agents handle entry-level execution work, companies may need to hire fewer people, and some learning opportunities may disappear for younger workers. 

Ami Palan, senior managing director at Accenture Song, said that to successfully implement AI agents, companies may need to change the way they think about their corporate structure and workforce.

“We can build the most robust technology solution and consider it the Ferrari,” she said. “But if the culture and the organization of people are not enabled in terms of how to use that, that Ferrari is essentially stuck in traffic.”

Read more from Brainstorm AI:

Cursor developed an internal AI help desk that handles 80% of its employees’ support tickets, says the $29 billion startup’s CEO

OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap says ‘code red’ will force the company to focus, as the ChatGPT maker ramps up enterprise push

Amazon robotaxi service Zoox to start charging for rides in 2026, with ‘laser focus’ on transporting people, not deliveries, says cofounder



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Trump says ‘starting’ land strikes over drugs in latest warning

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President Donald Trump said the US would be “starting” land strikes on drug operations in Latin America, though again declined to provide details on when and where the escalation of his military campaign would actually begin, or if countries could still do anything to avert the threatened action.

“We knocked out 96% of the drugs coming in by water, and now we’re starting by land, and by land is a lot easier, and that’s going to start happening,” Trump told reporters Friday in the Oval Office.

The US president for days has been pledging to broaden the effort, which comes after the Pentagon has launched a series of attacks on what it has called drug-smuggling boats in international waters off the coast of South America.

While Trump’s posturing has largely been seen as a pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, he on Friday insisted the land targeting may not only impact Venezuela.

Read more: Trump Says US Eyes Land Strikes Next After Drug Boat Attacks

“It doesn’t necessarily have to be in Venezuela,” he said, adding that “people that are bringing in drugs to our country are targets.” 

Trump has justified the actions in part by framing the fight against drug smuggling as akin to combat operations. He told reporters that if overdose deaths were counted like combat deaths, it would be “like a war that would be unparalleled.”

Striking targets on land would represent a major escalation, and Maduro earlier this week said that if his nation came under foreign attack, the working class should mount a “general insurrectionary strike” and push for “an even more radical revolution.”

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.



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