South Florida is feeling blue, and that’s a delight for Democrats

It might be too bold to definitively declare a blue wave is coming to Florida this election cycle. But writing on the wall suggests, at the very least, it’s a strong possibility.

Examples abound.

Broadly, there have been 25 Democratic pickups across the nation this year. That’s not just the gross number either, it’s the net. Republicans haven’t flipped a single seat, according to The Downballot.

The crystal ball was already throwing sparks after stronger-than-expected results in Virginia and New Jersey in November. Also last month, Democrats in Georgia crushed Republicans in two statewide races for the state’s public service commission.

On Tuesday night, Georgia Democrats celebrated victory again, flipping a solidly Republican Georgia House seat in a Special Election. It wasn’t a blowout, but it wasn’t a nail-biter either — Eric Gisler defeated Republican Mack Guest IV by 2 percentage points.

But those 2 percentage points look positively huge when considering President Donald Trump won the district just last year by a staggering 12 percentage points.

Sure, you might say, those are other states. Florida is not like other states. After all, when Democrats overperformed in the 2022 Midterms across the U.S., Florida Republicans rode what amounted to a red tsunami that year.

But here’s the thing: For now at least, Florida is following suit.

I present to you exhibit A: Eileen Higgins. Not only did she flip the Miami Mayor’s Office, she will be the first registered Democrat to serve as Miami Mayor in 27 years.

And in a Special Election to replace the late Joe Casello, Democrat Rob Long landed 63% of the vote, outperforming Kamala Harris in House District 90 by 17 points.

Democrats also significantly improved on their 2024 performance in this Spring’s Special Elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, and enjoyed lopsided wins in two legislative Special Elections in September. Strategists on both sides of the aisle say the pattern reflects a real shift in enthusiasm, not a one-off fluke.

So what does this mean for 2026? It by no means guarantees victories at the top of the ticket, but it signals a potentially more competitive slate of statewide races than what we saw four years ago. And the Democratic Party is taking notice. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has added Florida to its “Target Map of 2026,” an announcement that came just after Higgins’ and Long’s victories.

DLCC President Heather Williams called this moment “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally transform state legislative power.”

Democrats may be able to most reap the benefits in the place now responsible for creating the Florida-specific buzz: South Florida.

Last year, Republicans made Palm Beach County competitive for the first time in years, narrowing Harris’ margin of victory to just 0.7 percentage points. But subsequent election results have shown a strong reversion toward the county’s traditionally Democratic lean.

Republican state Rep. Anne Gerwig won House District 93 last year by just 356 votes — a razor-thin margin in what was otherwise a strong GOP year. Now, Democrat August Mangeney is looking to flip the seat, citing what he calls a “realignment of energy” among voters.

“Over the past few months, I’ve seen a clear shift in Democratic energy on the ground,” Mangeney said. “People who sat out in 2024 or felt disillusioned are showing up again, ready to fight for fair representation and a government that actually works for them.”

Democrats view HD 93 as one of their top pickup opportunities in 2026, especially if recent overperformance continues.

In nearby House District 101, Democrat Todd Delmay is challenging state Rep. Hillary Cassel, who won the seat in 2024 as a Democrat before switching parties shortly thereafter. The district is politically complex — while Trump narrowly carried it with 50.56% of the vote, the Democratic Senate candidate beat Rick Scott there by 2 points, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 11,000 registered voters.

Delmay argues that Cassel’s party switch has triggered widespread frustration, offering another opening for Democrats who are still, well, Democrats.

“I’m talking to voters every day who are not only furious at what the Trump and DeSantis administrations are doing, but at Cassel for flipping parties,” Delmay said. “People here voted for a Democratic representative to defend their rights and fight for affordability — and instead, Cassel turned on them.”

Democrats believe that anger, combined with national and local overperformance, could make HD 101 one of the marquee contests of 2026.

This doesn’t just represent an opportunity to claw back seats in the Legislature. Democrats also have opportunities in local races.

Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed former state Rep. Mike Caruso, a Republican, to serve as Palm Beach County Clerk of Court. He replaced Democrat Joe Abruzzo, who left the post to become Palm Beach County Administrator. Democrat Yvette Drucker is already running to challenge Caruso if he runs in 2026, or Republican Sam Thompson, who has already filed for the race.

A renewed Democratic surge would put Drucker in a strong position.

Whether these trends hold remains to be seen — a lot can change in a little less than a year — but operatives in both parties agree on one thing: South Florida is suddenly back on the map, and Democrats head into 2026 with more wind at their backs than they’ve felt in years.