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Did immigration turn Miami blue?

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Miami’s mayoral race ended Tuesday night with a political shift that would have seemed unlikely just a year ago: The election of a Democrat, Eileen Higgins, to replace term-limited Republican Mayor Francis Suarez. In a city that voted for Donald Trump by less than a point in the 2024 presidential election, the result raises a fundamental question about how Miami’s electorate is evolving.

Many issues shaped this Fall’s campaign, including cost of living, corruption, and fatigue over the area’s political dynasties. But one factor over which the city has no direct control appears to have also played an important role: immigration. Specifically, the aggressive national immigration policies associated with the Trump and DeSantis administrations.

Few American cities are as deeply defined by immigration as Miami. More than 58% of Miami-Dade residents are foreign-born, According to an analysis by the Forum for Together, making the county one of the most immigrant-dense metropolitan areas in the United States. Roughly 72% of Miami’s foreign-born population comes from Latin America, and more than half of all households speak a language other than English at home. Immigrants also fuel Miami’s economy, making up nearly 66% of the labor force, including significant representation in health care, construction, hospitality, and professional services.

This demographic reality helps explain why immigration has long been more than a talking point in Miami — it is personal. And in recent years, the city has transformed into one of the most attractive destinations in the world to live and work. As outgoing Mayor Suarez likes to say, Miami has emerged as a bona fide capital of technology and finance, attracting entrepreneurs, venture capital, global corporations, and top talent drawn to its climate, culture, and international connectivity. With this growth has come a renewed understanding that Miami’s strength lies in its identity as a city built and sustained by people from other places, both inside and outside the United States.

Against this backdrop, the hardening of national immigration rhetoric appears to have pushed many Miami voters, including Republican-leaning Hispanics and No Party Affiliates, toward candidates seen as more protective of immigrants already living and working in the community.

National data underscores this trend. A November 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration and the economy. More strikingly, the survey showed that immigration — often assumed to motivate conservative voting — has in fact become a mobilizing issue for Latinos who oppose mass deportation and family separation. Latinos surveyed overwhelmingly rejected policies targeting long-standing undocumented residents, even when they supported stronger border controls.

A recent Kissimmee-based Kaplan Strategies poll highlighted how this dynamic is playing out locally: Miami voters overwhelmingly support border security, yet a majority also oppose blanket deportations of undocumented immigrants who have become rooted in the community. This dual view — security paired with compassion — reflects a nuanced position that does not align neatly with the national Republican message.

Over the last couple of months, an organization called Freedom and Opportunity Alliance launched a digital, television, and billboard campaign in the weeks leading up to Miami’s election. The group bills itself as supporting strong borders and the deportation of violent criminals, while also opposing the removal of long-established, law-abiding undocumented residents who contribute to local economies. The group’s ads, which ran across major platforms, sought to thread the needle between security and humanity, a balance consistent with voter sentiment.

When viewed together, the data tells a compelling story. Miami’s immigrant-rich population remains sensitive to rhetoric or policies that threaten broad deportation. While voters care deeply about safety and border enforcement, they are equally committed to protecting neighbors, coworkers, and families who form the city’s social and economic bedrock.

In this year’s mayoral race, that tension appears to have broken decisively toward the candidate who most aligned with Miami’s lived reality — not the national rhetoric.



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Gov. DeSantis prioritizes road projects, infrastructure improvements in budget plan

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is looking to prioritize road construction projects and beef up infrastructure in his 2026-27 budget proposal.

DeSantis is calling for $15.4 billion for the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) in addition to $14.3 billion for the State Transportation Work Program, which handles construction and maintenance of Florida’s roads, bridges, rails, seaports and other public transportation systems.

Speaking at a budget press conference in Orlando, DeSantis said his proposal provides “major support for infrastructure and transportation.”

“Over $14 billion for our state work program — that more than funds everything we need to do,” DeSantis said as he unveiled a $117 billion proposed spending plan ahead of the upcoming Legislative Session.

The fully released budget plan gives more detail on how DeSantis wants to carry out his priorities.

The Governor wants to allocate $4.9 billion for highway construction and maintenance. That entails constructing 181 new lane miles, $1.4 billion for resurfacing 2,622 lane miles, about $873 million for repairing 38 bridges and replacing 21 others. In addition, DeSantis wants to allocate about $204 million for community trail projects.

DeSantis is also pushing for investments to be made at the state’s airports and seaports.

Under DeSantis’ plan, aviation improvements would get nearly $389 million and seaports could receive nearly $156 million for infrastructure upgrades.

“I don’t think you’re going to find another state that’s doing more meaningful things on transportation” and other issues while also maintaining a “stable budget,” DeSantis said at his budget press conference.

The state’s growing space industry would also benefit from DeSantis’ budget proposal which allocates $93 million through the FDOT Spaceport Improvement Program and $10 million for the Aerospace Investment Fund to help recruit companies to the state.

“As Florida’s space industry continues to reach new heights, infrastructure needs along the Space Coast will continue to be a priority, which is why the budget includes $5 million in startup funding to Space Florida to work alongside state agencies to establish additional wastewater capacity for Florida’s commercial launch providers,” DeSantis’ budget proposal added.

“These proposed investments are in addition to the nearly $700 million in funding through the FDOT Work Program to improve community infrastructure in Brevard, Indian River, and Volusia counties.”



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Federal probation overhaul enjoys broad support, including in swing districts

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Florida reformed and scaled back probation supervision more than three years ago. Now, polling shows broad support for Congress tackling probation updates nationwide.

New polling commissioned by the REFORM Alliance, a national group supporting changes to probation and parole, found nearly 79% of Americans support proposals to change supervision as proposed in a bipartisan bill championed by U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee.

The survey, conducted by Fabrizio Ward, showed strong majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents backing reform.

It’s a result that shocked even the group’s leadership, as most Americans supported changing the process without hearing any messaging.

“I have to say, I was absolutely shocked that we saw as high support right out the gate, without even linking this to any of the authors or any of the incredible influencers who have stepped up and said that they endorsed the bill,” said Jessica Jackson, CEO of the REFORM Alliance.

“We saw right away that 79% of the Trump voters, 80% of the (Kamala) Harris voters said they want to see this happen. They want to see this public safety reform signed into law.”

The pollsters, who also have worked with President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, stressed the conservative support from swing House districts Trump carried in 2024 by less than 5 percentage points, or that went to Trump despite electing Democrats to Congress.

“Reform of the supervised release system has a clear political benefit for Republicans in their fight to keep control of Congress,” pollsters Anthony Fabrizio and Bob Ward wrote in a memo. “Both the Trump base and the Swing voters who will determine the outcomes in the most competitive House districts see the benefits of making it easier for the recently incarcerated to get back into the workforce, paying taxes and contributing to society.”

That speaks to messaging likely to be embraced by Lee, a swing district Republican.

But the poll also shows voters across the political spectrum back changes. Her bill would grant more judicial discretion in requirements for supervision during probation, allow for an early end to probation for good conduct and allow treatment instead of probation for low-level drug possession.

Jackson said that’s to be expected when looking at data on the number of people detrimentally impacted by the probation system as it exists today.

“Seven out of 10 of the Democrats, or Harris voters, said that they had a loved one. You had eight out of 10 of the Trump supporters who said they had a loved one or themselves had been impacted,” Jackson noted. “I think it’s because it’s become such a widespread issue that people know someone personally, and of course, nothing puts this more on your radar than actually knowing somebody who’s been impacted.”

Various elements of the bill polled at different support levels, but all were popular.

Asked about investing in programs that increase the chances that those on parole will succeed in reentry into society, such as housing assistance, education and job training, addiction treatment, and mental health support, 81% of Trump voters and 84% of swing voters support the bill.

By comparison, giving Judges discretion on minor drug possession violations to consider treatment or rehabilitation instead of mandatory reimprisonment had support from 68% of Trump voters and 72% from swing voters, lower levels of support but strong majorities with even the least popular part of the bill.

“A member of Congress supporting the Safer Supervision Act would gain at the polls, and most voters want President Trump to issue an executive order to accomplish the policies of the Safer Supervision Act,” the polling memo states.

Jackson’s group is prepared to tell personal stories even to those who don’t already know someone impacted by probation restraints. Her group also worked on the First Step Act signed in Trump’s first term, and she recounts how one of the first recipients, after Trump commuted her sentence on a crack cocaine conviction, still struggled to reintegrate in 2018. It wasn’t because she fell into old habits, but because of impossible constraints imposed by the justice system.

That included requirements for visits with a parole officer located 45 minutes away, required random drug tests, an expectation she retain her job at Walmart, all while living in her daughter’s house without her own care and after returning to society after a decade in prison with no ability to build up savings.

“There’s just so much stupid that is holding people back, so much red tape that isn’t actually helping them succeed,” Jackson said.

It’s why even voters who support taking a hard line on crime see benefits in making a return to society easier and more efficient.

“People see this as a tough on crime bill,” Jackson said.

“This is a bill that would return federal supervision to its original intent, which is officers who have people on their docket who they think might be at high risk of committing another crime need the resources to be able to properly supervise them. The way that things are structured right now, you’ve got officers managing 100-plus cases. That means they can’t properly supervise anyone — not those who need their help, not those who pose risks.”



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D.C. pollster tests messaging for Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan re-election

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A new poll reveals what messaging could be used as Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan gets ready to run for four more years in office.

But the pollster purports to be far away from Duval.

JacksonvilleStudies.com lists its address at a strip mall with a UPS store in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of northwest Washington, D.C., just blocks from Malcolm X Park.

Its phone number isn’t accepting inbound calls, and Deegan herself isn’t talking about the survey as of Thursday morning. So we don’t know if her “Duval for Allpolitical committee is paying for the effort, or if the money is coming from elsewhere.

No disclaimer language was on the text message soliciting responses or the poll itself. We called “John,” whose phone in Astor, Florida, sent out the text message. But he didn’t answer and we were routed to what was called a “campaign voicemail.” Our call hasn’t been returned at this point.

The poll tests Deegan head-to-head against various potential Republican candidates, including House Speaker Pro Tempore Wyman Duggan, Duval County Elections Supervisor Jerry Holland and Jacksonville City Councilman Rory Diamond.

None of them have formally declared a run, though we have seen polling conducted on Holland’s behalf.

While it’s unclear who runs against Deegan in 2027, what is clear is those candidates will have to counter various positive messages, including some auditioned in this phone poll.

People responding to the poll are asked if they think the Jacksonville Journey Forward initiative is keeping them safer and improving lives, as well as whether Deegan is keeping promises, making things easier for small businesses, supporting first responders, and was using her “negotiating skills” in completing negotiations with the NFL Jaguars for stadium improvements.

Additionally, they are asked if they know Jacksonville has the lowest property taxes of any major city in the state, if she has improved downtown, if she has made progress on “affordable housing” and health insurance coverage, and if she is “approachable.”

The poll does not ask about a hologram of Deegan at the Jacksonville International Airport, a much-criticized airport greeting device that critics say shows her ego and self-promotion, suggesting the surveyors don’t believe this issue matters to voters despite Republican tubthumping.

The apparently pro-Deegan poll comes after the Tyson Group’s survey earlier this year showed Jacksonville voters would prefer a generic Republican to a generic Democrat in a ballot test stripped of meaningful markers like name recognition and the power of incumbency.

No serious candidate has filed to run against Deegan yet, and she has yet to open a campaign account.

But this poll shows that even this sleepy campaign cycle is about to stop hitting the snooze button and get going at last.



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