Even Ash Marwah knows the odds do him no favors.

A Senate district that leans heavily Republican plus a Special Election just weeks before Christmas — Marwah acknowledges it adds up to a likely Tuesday victory for Ralph Massullo.

The Senate District 11 Special Election is Tuesday to fill the void created when Blaise Ingoglia became Chief Financial Officer.

It pits Republican Massullo, a dermatologist and Republican former four-term House member from Lecanto, against Democrat Marwah, a civil engineer from The Villages.

Early voter turnout was light, as would be expected in a low-key standalone Special Election: At 10% or under for Hernando and Pasco counties, 19% in Sumter and 15% in Citrus.

Massullo has eyed this Senate seat since 2022 when he originally planned to leave the House after six years for the SD 11 run. His campaign ended prematurely when Gov. Ron DeSantis backed Ingoglia, leaving Massullo with a final two years in office before term limits ended his House career.

When the SD 11 seat opened up with Ingoglia’s CFO appointment, Massullo jumped in and a host of big-name endorsements followed, including from DeSantis, Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, U.S. Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott, four GOP Congressmen, county Sheriffs in the district, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is endorsing Marwah.

Marwah ran for HD 52 in 2024, garnering just 24% of the vote against Republican John Temple. 

Massullo has raised $249,950 to Marwah’s $12,125. Massullo’s $108,000 in spending includes consulting, events and mail pieces. One of those mail pieces reminded voters there’s an election.

The two opponents had few opportunities for head-to-head debate. The League of Women Voters of Citrus County conducted a SD 11 forum on Zoom in late October, when the two candidates clashed over the state’s direction.

Marwah said DeSantis and Republicans are “playing games” in their attempts to redraw congressional district boundaries.

“No need to go through this expense,” he said. “It will really ruin decades of progress in civil rights. We should honor the rule of law that we agreed on that it’ll be done every 10 years. I’m not sure why the game is being played at this point.”

Massullo said congressional districts should reflect population shifts.

“The people of our state deserve to be adequately represented based on population,” he said. “I personally do not believe we should use race as a means to justify particular areas. I’m one that believes we should be blind to race, blind to creed, blind to sex, in everything that we do, particularly looking at population.”

Senate District 11 covers all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties, plus a portion of northern Pasco County. It is safely Republican — Ingoglia won 69% of the vote there in November, and Donald Trump carried the district by the same margin in 2024.

The Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) will spend Session advocating for a legislative slate that includes support for affordable housing, private property rights and a regulatory framework for artificial intelligence.

The pro-business group outlined those and other goals in its recently released 2026 Session Priorities publication, which serves as a detailed guide to the policies AIF supports as well as those it will lobby against.

“As the 2026 Session approaches, AIF is proud to present our priorities, reflecting the collective voice of Florida’s diverse business community,” said Brewster Bevis, the organization’s President and CEO. “Florida remains a national model for economic opportunity, and AIF will work diligently to protect the business climate, encourage investment, and foster job creation across the state.”

AIF’s priorities reflect the interests of a broad set of industries, honed by its many policy councils and coalitions, including the Community Growth Council; Environmental Sustainability & Agriculture Council; Energy Council; Financial Services Council; Transportation & Maritime Council; Information Technology Council; Manufacturing, Aerospace & Defense Council; Taxation Council; Health Care Council; and the H2O Coalition.

The priority list also details its support for “the lawful, strategic use of state preemption” on “unnecessary, inconsistent” local government regulations, an “all-of-the-above” approach to energy, full funding for the state’s Fresh From Florida marketing program, and efforts to increase the number of graduate medical education slots across Florida’s health care institutions.

AIF said preserving the tort reforms from 2022 and 2023 also remains a top priority. The 2023 bill made sweeping changes to Florida’s torts laws that AIF and other pro-business groups argue are integral to stabilizing the cost of insurance premiums.

“Housing affordability, the rise of artificial intelligence, and efforts to roll back Florida’s historic tort reforms all have major implications for the strength of our business climate. AIF will continue to champion policies that support employers, protect consumers and residents, and ensure Florida remains one of the most competitive states in the nation to live, work, and do business,” Bevis said.

The 2026 Session Priorities publication will be delivered to all members of the Legislature and Cabinet, as well as state agency heads.

Former House Speaker Paul Renner is urging the Legislature to immediately call a Special Session and roll back property taxes to 2024 levels right now.

Renner, who is running for Governor, has been among Republicans advocating for property tax relief.

“I am calling on elected leaders to come together and take decisive action to make Florida more affordable now,” Renner said in a statement. “They have the power to do it through legislative action, as occurred before in the 2006-07 legislative session.”

“Our residents deserve a tax rollback before their property taxes go up again in 2026 and this can easily be accomplished within the next two weeks before Christmas,” Renner added.

The Legislature is scheduled to reconvene for the Regular Session on Jan. 13.

Republicans have been openly criticizing each other on the best way to put an initiative on the ballot next year for voter approval.

The House has proposed eight plans to lower property taxes. Gov. Ron DeSantis has criticized that effort for not going far enough to help Floridians, saying they would be destined to fail. He wants one clear plan brought forward to eliminate homestead property taxes.

“There’s not one proposal that people would get excited about. Not one. They’re total half-measures, which is not what people are asking for,” DeSantis said this Fall.

The back-and-forth comes as House leaders and DeSantis have been at odds with each other for months on a variety of issues, from immigration to Hope Florida.

In his latest plan, DeSantis pitched redistributing state dollars to help poorer counties make up for lost tax revenues as part of the Governor’s plan to eliminate homestead property taxes. If Florida does so, it would be the first state to have both no homestead property taxes and no state income tax.

“I’m putting in my budget the revenue to totally backfill every one of those rural counties. So they’re not going to miss a single thing,” DeSantis said on “Fox & Friends” this week.

Renner opined on the situation Monday as he tries to win statewide office.

“Our residents expect leadership, not division,” Renner said in his statement. “Floridians are losing faith in conservative leadership due to inaction. We need to stop the back and forth, or promising relief a year or two from now while delivering nothing meaningful and immediate.”