How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.

As St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch prepares to seek a second term, some political observers have questioned whether his first four years delivered enough progress to merit re-election.

Longtime community leaders like Rep. Michele Rayner, Pinellas County Commissioner Rene Flowers and Rev. J.C. Pritchett say the answer is already clear: No other candidate brings the same mix of lived experience, policy acumen and unshakable commitment to the city’s underserved neighborhoods as Welch.

Elected in 2021 as the city’s first Black Mayor, Welch came into office with a sweeping promise to build an inclusive St. Pete. His agenda emphasized affordable housing, equity and the long-delayed redevelopment of the Historic Gas Plant District — the once-thriving Black neighborhood razed in the 1980s to make way for Tropicana Field. 

The symbolism of Welch — whose family lost their lumberyard business in that very neighborhood — taking the lead on its reimagining is not lost on his supporters.

“The Gas Plant is in his fingernails,” said Pritchett, a longtime pastor and civic leader. “He realizes how sacred that is and how important that is. He has heard the stories, from his family and from residents, about what it was like to be displaced from your home and be promised for almost 50 years an answer and it not be delivered.”

While some recent coverage has spotlighted perceived stumbles — including storm recovery challenges, City Hall turnover, and the Tampa Bay Rays’ withdrawal from the redevelopment deal — Welch’s allies say the record tells a different story: a leader navigating complex crises with pragmatism, restraint and a steady hand.

Pritchett, whose ministerial alliance endorsed Welch in 2021, said the Mayor remains the right leader for a city on the edge of transformation.

“I think he ought to be able to have the opportunity to really lean into the work that he started,” he said.

Already, City Council member Brandi Gabbard has announced she will run against Welch. A well-known Realtor and moderate Democrat, Gabbard is considered a credible contender with appeal across ideological lines. She may not be the only challenger; former Governor and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist is also reportedly weighing a bid for the office.

Rayner, who has known Welch for much of her life, said he is uniquely suited to carry forward the Gas Plant vision because of his roots in the community.

“He understands the nuances of what this means, not only for St. Pete at large but for Black people who did not get what was owed to them,” Rayner said. “He’s able to navigate the sensitivities around that issue in a way no one else can.”

Under Welch’s leadership, the city launched an ambitious redevelopment plan with the Tampa Bay Rays and Hines to transform the 86-acre site into a new neighborhood featuring affordable housing, a ballpark and cultural amenities honoring the displaced Gas Plant community.

But after hurricanes battered the city last year, causing widespread damage, the Rays pulled out of the agreement in early 2025 following Pinellas County and City Council’s decision to slightly delay bond votes.

Critics have seized on the collapse as a political liability, but supporters argue the narrative is misplaced. They say the Rays walked away from a handshake deal, not the other way around.

“When the vote happened and we thought we had a deal, Stu (Sternberg), the Mayor, and Brian Auld and others went out to celebrate, and we hugged and we shook hands,” Pritchett said. “Only to find that in March the Rays walked away from the handshake and from the covenant and from the deal.”

“It left the residents hanging, and our community is still healing from that,” he added. “They left hurt and a void and an ‘I told you so’ that has existed since 1978. This Mayor did not pause, this Mayor was not caught like a deer in the headlights. This Mayor said, ‘let’s pivot and find a solution to deliver to the residents a development for the future.’”

Flowers, a longtime Welch ally and successor after his time on the County Commission, rejected claims that storm damage or financing delays doomed the deal as “hogwash.” Her family lost a dry-cleaning business at the Gas Plant District, and she praised Welch’s efforts to revive the community’s vision for the district.

“When the deal fell through with the Rays, and of course the Gas Plant District was a part of that, initially I was very angry,” Flowers said. “I cannot tell you the number of hours and the amount of time, the amount of documents that we had to peruse through, meetings to attend and briefings for almost two years. The amount of money that’s put out on the front end with bond counsel, legal counsel, the Sports Authority.” 

Flowers maintains that damage to Tropicana Field’s roof and facilities was out of anybody’s control, and while the timing was unfortunate, the situation did not delay plans for a new state-of-the-art facility.

“That facility would have had to come down anyway, No. 1,” Flowers said. “And No. 2, the city had insurance on the facility. So it would have had to have been repaired in order for them to finish out playing in 2026, which is what is happening right now.”

“I’m sorry, I’m just calling it hogwash,” she said. “That was hogwash to say, you know, costs went up and this and that and the other. But they could never show us on paper where their contractor and their developer said it went from this many million to this much. They couldn’t show it because it didn’t exist.”

With development rights now back in the city’s hands, Welch is pushing forward. He’s prioritized building affordable senior housing, expanding the Woodson African American Museum, and exploring new convention and mixed-use options. 

A new request for proposals is expected to be finalized early next year after the City Council requested additional time for potential developers and pumped the brakes on a more aggressive timeline set by Welch this year.

“He’s going to make a decision sometime in January or early February,” Flowers said. “But that’s on those 86 acres, we can move forward with that, we don’t have to wait and see what’s going to happen with the Rays.”

“We don’t have to focus on Tropicana Field until the new owners make their play,” she said. “That’s up to them. But what we can focus on is the Gas Plant district. They’re going to be playing in that dome, we know that, through 2026. They may have to play there a little longer because wherever they decide to build they’ve got to build it before they can go.”

Beyond the Gas Plant, Welch’s administration has advanced several measurable goals. In 2024 alone, the city supported 281 new affordable housing units, helped 193 homeowners with essential repairs and assisted 87 first-time buyers with down payments. His team launched a $3 million utility relief program that served more than 7,600 renter households and invested $1.5 million into minority- and women-owned small businesses through the South St. Pete CRA.

When Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit within weeks of each other last year, Welch led a cleanup effort that cleared more than 2 million cubic yards of debris in under 90 days and secured $159 million in federal recovery funds. Critics were quick to criticize the speed of the cleanup, they even labeled the debris “Welch piles,” but progress reports show the city met or exceeded its benchmarks, a point his supporters say speaks to his quiet effectiveness.

“Besides ambition, I would like to see opposing candidates point to the issues that would make one decide that he should not be re-elected for another four years,” Pritchett said. “If you want to say it’s hurricane debris, so be it, but every time there’s a challenge he’s delivered.”

Welch has also been criticized for complying with a state order to remove intersection murals featuring racial justice and Pride themes, a decision that drew accusations of cowardice from some activists. Supporters say that view ignores his duty to protect the city from multimillion-dollar funding cuts threatened by the Florida Department of Transportation for noncompliance.

“Activists and community leaders have the privilege of breaking the law and challenging Tallahassee’s decisions,” Pritchett said. “The Mayor has taken an oath to follow the law and to be an example of civic responsibility. It’s performative political rhetoric to suggest the Mayor would break the law and lay over the murals to protect them temporarily from being removed.”

Rayner agreed, describing Welch’s approach as “principled and pragmatic.” His creation of the Office of Equity and Inclusion, and continued support for leadership positions like the city’s LGBTQ+ Liaison reflects his commitment to inclusion despite popular rhetoric trumpeted by right-wing politicians. Those efforts have helped the city maintain a perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign’s Municipal Equality Index.

“He’s not kowtowing to bullying out of Tallahassee,” Rayner said. “He is answering the call of the people that elected him and not answering the call of some performance politics of the state legislature. What I appreciate about Mayor Welch is he doesn’t say what is politically advantageous or expedient. He is very principled and character-driven. And I think that’s why you see him do the things that he does.”

Welch’s allies also reject claims of a toxic workplace culture at City Hall, citing the Mayor’s adherence to process. He placed his former Deputy Mayor Stephanie Owens on leave during an internal investigation, prompting her to resign amid bullying allegations. Former Communications Director Janelle Irwin Taylor, who is now a senior staff member for Florida Politics, leveled the allegations against Owens.

Former Managing Director of Economic and Workforce Development Brian Caper, one of the city leaders behind work to redevelop the Historic Gas Plant District and on the canceled deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, also resigned his position after findings that he sexually harassed a subordinate in his department.

“Public service is like any other sector,” Pritchett said. “When a complaint is filed the HR department investigates and interviews. Unions and contracts are not controlled by the Mayor. Following the advice of legal and following proper procedures is the responsibility of the Mayor for the hundreds of employees of the city.”

As Welch positions himself for re-election, his campaign is expected to emphasize results over rhetoric: a city that has rebuilt from two major storms, launched major equity and resilience initiatives, and remained on strong fiscal footing amid statewide political turbulence.

“He measures twice and cuts once; he really wants to make sure he’s getting things right for the people,” Rayner said.