5 things I think about the St. Pete Mayor’s race now that everyone has finance reports to show

Last week was a big one in St. Pete politics, as campaign finance activity for the first quarter of 2026 offered some first glimpses at who soared and who flopped.

The city’s upcoming mayoral election has already been remarkable for a number of reasons, not least of which being the amount of intraparty opposition facing incumbent Mayor Ken Welch, a Democrat.

While the race is nonpartisan, partisanship still plays a role, and coalitions still rise and fall along ideological lines. That’s why it’s so telling that Welch will likely face a tough re-election against former Gov. Charlie Crist, also a Democrat. And while she has yet to prove herself as a viable candidate so far, City Council member Brandi Gabbard — a moderate Dem like Crist — also presents a barrier to Welch, even if she only winds up claiming a small portion of overall votes this August.

St. Pete, still an urban liberal stronghold, will no doubt favor a Democratic candidate. But the lane for conservative candidates is also muddied, with both former Shore Acres Neighborhood Civic Association President Kevin Batdorf and former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large sharing that lane.

Being able to see the fundraising activity for all candidates offers a chance to better analyze the race, and offers clues about what to watch in the second quarter of 2026. For now, it seems hard to imagine any candidate gaining enough traction to offer a significant challenge to either Welch or Crist, the latter of whom has not yet entered the race but who is expected to soon.

The more salient question at this early point in the race seems instead to be whether Crist of Welch will win outright in August by securing more than 50% of the vote, or face a runoff in November.

Until then, let’s look at takeaways from the most recent finance reports.

Not a lot of financial buy-in for Welch

Welch not only failed to bridge the gap between his fundraising and that of the political committee supporting Crist, he allowed it to grow, with Welch’s cash on hand now sitting at just $193,000. Crist, meanwhile, maintains nearly all of the $1.2 million his committee has raised.

Additionally, Welch failed to show broad support from a variety of donors, particularly to his political committee.

Crist’s St. Pete Shines not only brought in significantly more than Welch’s St. Petersburg Progress PC, Crist notched well over 100 unique contributors. Those range from big buy-ins like $50,000 from Seminole Gaming, $30,000 from the Down Ballot Democrats PC, $25,000 from Ballard Partners and more, to smaller-dollar donors hailing from real estate, health care, hospitality and other sectors.

In all, Crist’s Q1 report shows 161 contributions, with a few repeat donors and just two in-kind contributions. Welch’s PC has just 17 contributions. Excluding repeat donors and in-kind contributions, combining donations hailing from the same household, and leaving out donations less than $1,000, that number drops to just nine.

That is a remarkably small showing of support for an incumbent Mayor, and much of the support he did receive is likely a combination of obligatory and hedging. Monied interests, such as developers, often donate heavily to incumbent leaders, sometimes even donating to more than one candidate in the same race.

For Welch, he managed to grab $25,000 from the Tampa Bay Rays, a donation likely just as much about maintaining a relationship with Welch through the remainder of his term and ensuring good grace should he be re-elected.

Likewise, Welch’s donors included developer John Catsimatidis and his wife, Margo Catsimatidis. Together, the couple kicked in $25,000.

In fact, of the $188,060 Welch raised to his PC from the beginning of the year through March, $85,000 of it was transferred from Welch’s previous PC, the Pelican Political Action Committee.

And that brings up another embarrassing takeaway for the incumbent: He can’t seem to get his operations in working order. Welch is now on his third political committee since his first mayoral election, with the first being revoked by the state over repeated filing failures, and the second voluntarily abandoned after a Treasurer stole more than $200,000 from it.

This was the first filing for his current PC, and already there was a glaring error. The Q1 report initially listed the $85,000 transfer as being from the Pelican PAC, when in reality it came from the Pelican Political Action Committee. Granted, it was likely nothing more than a scrivener’s error made by shortening Political Action Committee to its acronym. However, anyone working for Welch should have understood that there were two similarly named committees and taken steps to be more clear.

And indeed, since the report was filed last week, it has since been amended to reflect the correct committee transfer.

Where would Welch be without the Rays?

The Tampa Bay Rays cut a $25,000 check to Welch’s PC (the most recent one, it’s worth noting) and the team’s CEO, Ken Babby, personally donated $1,000 to Welch’s campaign. All things considered, it’s probably seen as a good ROI for the team considering that under Welch’s tenure, the city spent more than $60 million to get Tropicana Field back into shape after the 2024 hurricanes, including Hurricane Milton, which blew most of the stadium’s roof off.

Never mind the dollars and cents of it, there’s also the team’s past support. It likewise donated heavily to Welch in his 2021 campaign, and there was an ROI there too. Prior to Hurricane Milton’s driving winds, Welch had been on track to accomplish what many of his predecessors did not: build a new stadium.

Now, he might have $26,000 in Rays money, but the legacy he was building even just a couple years ago is all but shattered.

Gabbard better hope her kickoff is lucrative

Gabbard, a sitting City Council member, should have showed up on her first campaign finance report sending a message. And she did — but it was the wrong message.

Instead of proving she had the chops to hang in what will no doubt be an expensive mayoral battle, Gabbard closed out Q1 with pretty low numbers. Gabbard raised just over $4,000 to her campaign and another $7,000 to her committee, Forward Together PC, which has raised just $10,700 since it was launched last July. Between the two accounts, she has less than $12,000 on hand.

Gabbard is clearly not ruling herself out, and I’ll be gracious enough for now. But if she’s going to be even slightly competitive in this race, she’s going to have to show some major progress in the next round of finance reports, due July 10.

Gabbard kicked off her race last week, after Q1, meaning whatever she raised at that event won’t be clear until the Q2 reports are in. If there’s not significant improvement in that report, Gabbard’s campaign may prove to be a nonstarter.

Large had a better showing than expected

Large perhaps has 99 reasons to challenge Welch, and partisanship ain’t one. While the two support opposing political parties, it was under Welch’s tenure the former Fire Chief faced accusations of racist and sexist comments. It was Welch who placed him on leave while investigating the accusations. And while Welch ultimately reinstated Large, the damage was done, and whisper campaigns continue.

So it was something of a shock when Large showed up on Q1 with respectable, if not enviable, fundraising numbers. Large raised more than $59,000 to his campaign, with another $37,000 into his committee, A Better Burg. Together, his fundraising narrowly missed the six-figure mark.

But if you drill down into Large’s contributors, it’s not clear how much more mileage he has to continue the momentum. His donors largely include current and retired firefighters.

Those who bought into his campaign are also familiar names in northeast St. Pete and/or local conservatives, including Pinellas County Commissioner Vince Nowicki, himself no friend to Welch; retired dentist Ed Amley; political strategist Mark Chmieslewski; Realtor Bill Dudley; developer Terry McCarthy; funeral home operator Bill McQueen; Shawn Montanari, whose brother is former St. Pete City Council member Ed Montanari; custom pool builder John Sekas; and perhaps most importantly, former Sen. Jack Latvala’s old political committee, the Florida Leadership Committee.

That last bit is important because it may constitute something of a not-so-secret weapon, as Latvala consults on Large’s campaign. (And hey Chris Latvala, don’t even try to tell us your dad isn’t offering at least some guidance.)

Batdorf’s out-the-gate fundraising proves what we already knew …

… that his candidacy is dead on arrival.

Batdorf is a good guy, and he would probably make a fine leader. Additionally, he has a contingent of allies likely to be loyal to him after his dogged advocacy on behalf of those displaced and otherwise affected by the 2024 hurricanes. But none of that is enough to win a campaign in a midsize city.

Batdorf raised just $1,305 as of the end of March. It’s proof positive that while he may be able to collect some small(ish) dollar checks from friends and neighbors, his support pretty much stops there. He had seven contributors, most from Shore Acres, and his top donation was just $500, a sign that Batdorf hasn’t tapped into those able to cut the biggest checks.

We could echo our advice for Gabbard, to say Batdorf needs to step it up in Q2, but Batdorf’s situation is different.

As an elected official, Gabbard should already have some reasonable fundraising infrastructure at her disposal, not to mention a network of donors to tap. Batdorf has neighbors, many of whom might be financially strapped as they continue to recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene. And while I have no doubt he will continue collecting checks here and there, his ceiling is just too low.

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Ed. Note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee expected to back Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.