Politics
5 things I think about Kevin Batdorf’s entrance into the St. Pete mayoral race
With former Shore Acres Neighborhood Association President Kevin Batdorf officially entering the St. Petersburg mayoral race, there are now six candidates filed, including incumbent Mayor Ken Welch.
It may surprise some folks to hear that, upon learning a few months ago that Batdorf was contemplating running for Mayor, I picked up the phone and encouraged him to enter the race.
“Everyone should run for office, at least once,” I told my neighbor.
The reason some might find that shocking is, at the time, my wife was already heading a political committee that could eventually benefit former Gov. Charlie Crist should he decide to enter the race.
But that didn’t matter to me. Batdorf is a generous, decent person and we need more people like him running for office. I saw up close during Hurricane Helene just how committed he is to the community he serves.
As the then-Shore Acres Neighborhood Association President, Batdorf walked through neighborhoods checking on residents, delivering supplies and lending a hand. He was front and center in demanding better storm response from the current administration, and his work then was selfless. I have no doubt that his decision to challenge the sitting Mayor came because he saw how residents deserve better, even if his own efforts at the time were limited to his immediate neighborhood.
Do I think Batdorf has much of a chance at winning? No. But maybe he runs and loses this cycle, learns just enough (but not too much, because politics are brutal), and runs again in the future.
In any case, now that Batdorf is in, here are five things I think about the current state of the St. Pete mayoral race:
The discontentment with the Welch administration is clear
It’s one thing to draw a fringe challenger as an incumbent Mayor. It wouldn’t even be all that notable if Welch drew a serious challenge related to partisan leanings — even though the race is nonpartisan, Welch is a Democrat. But to draw THIS many challengers, not all of whom are tomato cans — City Council member Brandi Gabbard and former Fire Chief Jim Large are also in the race — really demonstrates how unpopular the incumbent is.
The sheer volume of candidates means Welch will be running defense at candidate forums, while Gabbard has a current position to challenge his administration from the City Council dais — see her recent successful effort to pass a resolution opposing Welch’s decision to move forward with development selection for the Historic Gas Plant district.
Meanwhile, Batdorf will hit Welch on his hurricane response while Large — a registered Republican — comes at Welch from the right.
If anyone feels déjà vu, it’s appropriate. We haven’t seen an incumbent Mayor challenged this hard since Bill Foster, who, it’s worth noting, was more popular than Welch but still lost re-election to former Mayor Rick Kriseman.
Runoff is coming
Like Winter, a runoff is coming. If Welch were facing just one or two challengers — or at least just one or two credible challengers — he might be able to eke out a victory in the Primary. But with this many names on the ballot — and more possibly to come — it all but guarantees this race gets decided in November, not August. Conversely, a smaller slate of candidates could have benefited Crist, again, should he join the race.
With the amount of funds he has raised so far, and his proven ability to raise much more, it would have been entirely plausible for Crist to defeat Welch outright in the Primary, possibly more plausible than Welch winning outright.
And while forcing a runoff could be pitched as a win for Welch by the creative thinkers on his team, it’s really not.
Even though the Primary is now aligning with the Midterm Primaries, meaning the electorate will swing Democrat, it will be nothing like what we saw when Welch was first elected in November 2021 at the height of the Black Lives Matter movement following the police killing of George Floyd in 2020. People voting then knew they were making history by electing the city’s first Black Mayor.
Here’s how the math shakes out now, assuming a Crist candidacy.
Batdorf and Large will take moderate and Republican votes away from Crist. Gabbard will pull from both Crist and Welch. And even if the rest of the also-rans are limited to a few hundred votes, it will probably be enough to keep whomever finishes first from getting the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff in the General.
Batdorf’s entrance could help Welch finish first in August, but that means little for November
Welch has a better chance today of finishing first in August than he did before Batdorf entered the race. The incumbent has a hammerlock on his base of high-propensity Black voters. Even with Crist already picking up support among Black pastors and other community leaders, he faces a ceiling on how many votes he can pull from Welch. And now he has another White dude, this one the former head of one of the biggest neighborhoods in town, siphoning votes.
But there is a scenario now where Crist and Welch finish neck-and-neck in August, only for Crist to then overwhelm Welch in the runoff with a wave of key endorsements and a significant war chest.
The Primary wasn’t exactly a nail-biter five years ago — Welch was the top finisher with 39% of the vote, trailed by Robert Blackmon with 28%. Nevertheless, Welch’s finish was even more stinging after the Primary, when he won with more than 60% of the vote.
I still think Crist finishes first in August, but it would be silly to ignore the possibility of a plurality supporting Welch.
More candidates, more money, more bad news for Welch
With a November contest all but certain, the mayoral race just became that much more expensive.
That dings Welch hard, as his fundraising issues are well-documented.
But it also leaves Crist with some hard choices. Given that Welch entered 2026 with just $32,000, while at the same point Crist had raised $725,000 (and has since surpassed $1 million), Crist may find himself a few weeks before Primary Election Day with $500,000 in the bank and polling in the mid-40s.
The question then becomes, does he sit on that cash and wait to make it rain in the General, or does he go for broke and try to end the race in August? On one hand, that’s a great problem to have. On the other hand, I wouldn’t want to be his consultant having to advise on which way to go.
Other than a Crist entrance, this might be it for the field
Assuming Crist enters the race soon, the race for Mayor in 2026 is likely set. I haven’t heard of a self-funder — anyone not already raising funds would pretty much need to be a self-funder — planning to jump in. And I haven’t heard any rumblings among the GOP about other Republicans mulling a bid.
I also hypothesize that Gabbard and Maria Scruggs’ presence on the ballot walls off anyone looking to capitalize on a lane that favors women.
So with that, I guess it’s time to poll.
As for my neighbor, Kevin:
