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3 Democrats already challenging Neal Dunn see opportunity in CD 2 following retirement news

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News that U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn will retire after this year has fueled speculation about who may enter the race. But three Democrats have been running for months, collectively raising more than a quarter million dollars to take on the incumbent.

Yen Bailey, who challenged Dunn in 2024, was preparing for a rematch. But the race also drew in foreign aid professional Amanda Maria Green and tech entrepreneur Nic Zateslo. All suggested in online posts that Dunn’s motivation for retirement may have been a sense that the 2026 Midterms will prove especially hostile to Republicans.

Of course, the prospect of an open seat has drawn new interest in the race. Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, a Tallahassee Democrat, confirmed to Florida Politics she is thinking about a run. And many expect interest from former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Tallahassee Democrat who lost to Dunn in 2022, and former state Sen. Loranne Ausley, a Tallahassee Democrat unseated the same year.

But the candidates already in the running have a jump on organizing and fundraising, even if they don’t have as much experience on the trail.

Bailey, a Tallahassee lawyer, won just 38.3% of the vote against Dunn in the last election cycle. That election proved to be a good year for Republicans, with 58.5% of voters in the district voting for Donald Trump for President and 60% backing U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s re-election.

But she welcomed the retirement news, declaring “Dunn is done” in a post on X.

“This district has a genuine chance at real representation that shows up, listens and actually works for the people,” she said in a video message. “We also know that the Republican Party is a well-oiled machine. The rumors are already swirling about who they’re going to run next, and whoever it is, they are going to be loyal to Trump and do exactly what he tells them to.”

Through the end of September, Bailey raised more than $102,000, including more than $88,000 in individual contributions. The total also includes a $13,000 candidate loan.

But Zateslo reported more than $120,000 in fundraising, including about $18,000 in self-funding. He has worked at a number of political tech companies, including working as chief operating officer for Votivate, a technology project launched by the Working Families Party and now used by Democrats and progressive groups.

After Dunn announced he would not seek re-election, Zateslo issued a statement saying Democrats need to mobilize immediately.

“For those of us who call North Florida home, this is an important moment to take stock of what has worked, what has not, and what kind of leadership we need going forward,” he said.

“l am an Eagle Scout, an entrepreneur, a husband and a father of two young boys who grew up right here in North Florida. I believe we need leadership grounded in integrity, real-world experience, and a willingness to do the work, not in career ambition or the same old political playbook.”

Green filed for the office in August and has since raised about $42,000 for a run, all through outside donations. She worked nine years for Chemonics International, a top contractor for the U.S. Agency for International Development before its dismantling under Trump.

She has been campaigning while pregnant for months, and had a child days before Dunn’s announcement. But she jumped online at the news to post a statement on the development.

“Thank you, Neal Dunn, for finally recognizing that another run for this seat would be a disservice to our community. After five terms of absentee leadership, we finally have an open seat and a real chance to move forward,” she said.

“Florida’s District 2 has been asking for more, and for better, for a long time: better communication, more presence, real accountability, and true representation. Today is proof that persistence and pressure work. To my neighbors in North Florida — our work is far from over. We deserve better, and I will demand better as your representative. With your support, we can fight for a better and stronger future for our families, together.”



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Florida Medical Association PAC endorses Josie Tomkow in SD 14

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The Florida Medical Association (FMA) Political Action Committee is backing Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow in the special election for Senate District 14, adding another high-profile endorsement to her growing list of supporters.

FMA PAC President Andrew Borom said the organization supports Tomkow’s leadership on health policy and her current work as Chair of the House Health and Human Services Committee. Borom said Tomkow understands the health care challenges facing Floridians and emphasized the group’s interest in continuing to work with her should she advance to the Senate.

“As Chair of the House Health and Human Services Committee, Rep. Tomkow understands the significant health care issues impacting Floridians and we look forward to our continued collaboration in the Florida Senate,” Borom said.

Tomkow said she was “humbled” by the endorsement, and highlighted the role medical professionals play in improving access to care and driving innovation across Florida’s health care system.

“Florida’s medical community is helping lead our nation into a healthier future that emphasizes wellness,” Tomkow said. “Through their advocacy, Florida’s doctors have helped improve access to care and leveraged innovation and technological advances to deliver better health outcomes in Florida. I’m so humbled to have the endorsement of Florida’s doctors who are on the frontlines of making our state — and country — healthier for generations to come.” 

The endorsement further strengthens Tomkow’s standing in the race for the open Hillsborough County-based seat. The SD 14 seat became vacant after former Sen. Jay Collins was appointed Lieutenant Governor by Gov. Ron DeSantis, and the Special General Election to find his successor is scheduled for March 24.

Tomkow formally entered the race last fall and quickly consolidated support from Republican leadership and elected officials. She previously received endorsements from Senate President Ben Albritton and Sens. Jim Boyd and Jay Trumbull, as well as U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee, several members of the Florida House, and multiple county Sheriffs across the Tampa Bay region.

The FMA PAC, founded in 1974, supports candidates it says will advance policies that make Florida the best state to practice medicine. The committee raises voluntary contributions from health care professionals and routinely weighs in on competitive legislative races across the state.

A seventh-generation Floridian and third-generation cattle rancher, Tomkow currently represents Polk County in the House. She is term-limited from her House seat and has been viewed as a logical successor to Collins in the upper chamber, particularly given her leadership role on health and human services and her close ties to House leadership.



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Last Call for 1.15.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

House leaders are casting the opening days of the 2026 Legislative Session as an early win, pointing to a slate of bills approved in the chamber’s first week touching on workforce rules, public safety, health care, and civil liability.

“From protecting Florida jobs and improving health care outcomes to strengthening public safety and standing up for families, the Florida House hit the ground running,” House Speaker Daniel Perez said.

“These bills reflect our shared mission: to govern responsibly, solve real problems, and deliver meaningful results for Floridians. This productive first week set the tone for a Session focused on common-sense solutions and accountability.”

Among the priorities House Republicans are highlighting are proposals to tighten employment verification requirements, expand who can seek damages in wrongful death and medical negligence cases through a revived version of the so-called “Free Kill” repeal, and increase oversight of nursing education programs.

Lawmakers also advanced legislation aimed at improving pediatric readiness in hospital emergency departments, as well as a controversial measure that would roll back the post-Parkland law blocking adults under 21 from purchasing long guns. The long gun bill does not have a Senate companion.

The House news release said the chamber will “continue advancing legislation throughout the Session that reflects conservative principles, protects taxpayers, and improves the quality of life for all Floridians.”

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The James Madison Institute announced that U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody will be on hand as the general reception speaker for its 2026 Naples Annual Dinner.

The event is scheduled for LaPlaya Beach and Golf Resort in Naples and will include a private meet-and-greet and photo opportunity for sponsors and VIP ticket holders beginning at 5 p.m., followed by a reception with Moody at 5:30 p.m. Dinner is set for 6:30 p.m., with formal programming running from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m.

The evening will also include appearances by conservative commentator Scott Jennings and other featured guests promoted by the organization. Additional details about tickets and sponsorship opportunities are available through the institute.

Evening Reads

—”Donald Trump is going to have a hard time winning on Iran” via Mac William Bishop of Rolling Stone

—”Marco Rubio won; liberty lost” via Missy Ryan and Vivian Salama of The Atlantic

—”Why ICE can kill with impunity” via Lila Hassan of WIRED

—“ICE is becoming politically toxic — and fast” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”Machado’s Nobel gamble: A peace offering to win over a wary Trump” via Michael Birnbaum and María Luisa Paúl of The Washington Post

—”Leading prediction firms share a commonality: Donald Trump Jr.” via Sharon LaFraniere of The New York Times

—”The wild card group that could scramble America’s political alliances” via Katherine Kelaidis of Vox

—”Jamie Dimon seemed to have Trump figured out — until this week” via Alexander Saeedy, AnnaMaria Andriotis, Emily Glazer and Brian Schwartz of The Wall Street Journal

—“Proposal to gradually end property taxes advances in House committee” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix

—”‘Parkland learned this the hard way:’ Victim’s parents decry Florida bill to lower gun-buying age” via Angie DiMichelle of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Quote of the Day

“Constitutionally, in America, we deserve access to the courts. There should be no exceptions to that.”

— Fort Pierce Republican Rep. Dana Trabulsy, as the “Free Kill” repeal passed the full House.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Scandal-plagued U.S. Rep. Cory Mills gets a Pink Flamingo for helping shift his seat from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” in The Cook Political Report’s latest ratings.

Order a Burn Baby Burn for Bridget Ziegler, whose ICE proposal could lead to Democrats taking full control of the Sarasota County School Board later this year.

Send the House a round of Raise To The Fraise for approving Rep. Fiona McFarland’s bill upping Florida’s current sovereign immunity caps.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators face Vanderbilt in key SEC contest

Florida faces Vanderbilt in a matchup of ranked SEC teams on Saturday (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Gators (12-5, 3-1 in SEC) are coming off three consecutive conference wins. Florida topped No. 18 Georgia, No. 21 Tennessee, and Oklahoma after losing to Missouri to open conference play. Now, it’s the 10th-ranked Commodores.

Against Oklahoma on Tuesday night, Florida, ranked 19th in the most recent Associated Press Top 25 poll, got 21 points from Thomas Haugh and 19 points and 12 rebounds from Rueben Chinyelu in a 96-79 victory. The Gators’ strong frontcourt play has helped the team win seven of the last eight games after losing to two top-5 teams, Duke and Connecticut.

Vanderbilt (16-1, 3-1 in SEC) was undefeated until an 80-64 loss at Texas on Wednesday night. The Commodores made just 36.7% of their shots in the game, including missing nine of 10 3-point attempts in the second half. 

The defending national champions have not been as dominant as the team that breezed through the NCAA tournament last season, but the pieces are starting to work together as conference play unfolds. After Saturday’s game, Florida has only three games remaining against teams who are currently ranked: Alabama on Feb. 1, Georgia on Feb. 11, and Arkansas on Feb 28. 

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



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Potential new Rays stadium at Hillsborough College Dale Mabry campus slotted for first step

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The Tampa Bay Rays appear one step closer to identifying a location for a new stadium and related development, with an expected meeting Tuesday with the Hillsborough College District Board of Trustees to discuss a potential development at the school’s Dale Mabry campus, the Tampa Bay Business Journal first reported Thursday.

A deal with Hillsborough College, formerly Hillsborough Community College, would allow Rays ownership to develop a 110-acre mixed-use development, including a new stadium and a range of other community amenities. The Rays’ new owners have previously discussed a development that includes a mix of affordable housing, park space, retail, entertainment and more.

The meeting on Tuesday would be a first vote on a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) on a potential stadium deal. The Hillsborough College administration has recommended approval.

It’s important to note that an MOU does not guarantee a project; it allows the parties to move forward with plans and terms for an eventual binding agreement.

It’s not clear at this early juncture what public subsidy the project would require, but the team’s new ownership group — Ken Babby, Patrick Zalupski and Bill Cosgrove — previously said one would be required.

Speaking in October shortly after the team’s sale was finalized, owners said, and have since reiterated, they are looking at Atlanta as a model for a successful stadium development. The Atlanta Braves play at Truist Park, located in the Battery district.

And Babby said this week on the newly launched “Hunks Talking Junk” podcast, hosted by College HUNKS Hauling Junk and Moving co-founder Nick Friedman, the group has set an aggressive timeline to open a new ballpark in April 2029.

The ownership group has long said its goal was to keep the Rays in the Tampa Bay region and has made clear its preference is for Tampa.

The Rays item is the only issue included on Tuesday’s Hillsborough College Board of Trustees meeting. It notes that the school “has been approached” by Rays’ leadership.

“The MOU does not require the College to do the Project, and it can be terminated by the Board at any time,” the agenda reads, noting that, if approved, the MOU would allow both parties to “begin negotiating and drafting Project agreements for the Board’s review and approval at a future meeting.”

The agenda also notes that “the Rays have included a proposal to reimburse the College for the costs of preparing the final Project agreements.”



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