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2025 is a baseline for what sustained cost volatility looks like, S&P Global expert warns CFOs

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Good morning. This year will likely be a defining one for how CFOs navigate cost volatility, global economic shifts, and their ripple effects through supply chains—factors that can translate into profit losses.

As we move further into the final quarter of  2025, companies are facing more expenses than many had budgeted for at the start of the year.

Fortune’s Nino Paoli  reported on striking new research from  S&P Global, which found that corporate expenses are projected to rise by at least  $1.2  trillion in  2025  compared with expectations set in January.

So, how did analysts arrive at that figure? S&P Global estimates that global corporate margins have contracted by roughly 64  basis points, representing $907  billion in lost profit among companies covered by sell‑side analysts.

According to the report, companies are sacrificing profit margins to absorb rising costs, but are also passing part of the burden to customers. Roughly $592  billion of profit loss is being transferred to consumers through higher prices, while about $315  billion is being absorbed internally as lower earnings.

S&P Global’s analysis factors in additional cost pressures: about $155  billion in forecasted expenses from “uncovered public firms” and another $123  billion from private equity and VC‑backed companies. Adding these two figures to the initial  $907  billion  brings total projected 2025 costs to roughly $1.2  trillion.

The study draws on forecasts from over 15,000 analysts tracking  9,000  public firms, representing around $111  trillion  of  the  $130 trillion global  equity  market, or nearly  85% of its total value.

What it means for CFOs

What does such a massive increase in costs signal for finance chiefs as they plan for 2026? To find out, I asked one of the paper’s authors, Daniel Sandberg, global head of quantitative research and solutions at  S&P  Global  Market  Intelligence.

He said the $907  billion  profit contraction reflects a broad repricing of costs worldwide.

“Tariffs were one clear surprise that wasn’t baked into forecasts at the start of the year, but they’re not the whole story,” Sandberg  explained. “Rising wages, logistics bottlenecks, and higher spending on  AI  and automation have all contributed to margin pressure.”

For CFOs, Sandberg said: “This underscores the importance of treating 2025 not as an outlier, but as a baseline for what sustained cost volatility looks like,” he said. “The mix of pressures varies by geography and sector, so the challenge is less about predicting shocks and more about building flexibility into budgets and supply chains to absorb them.”

When asked what surprised him most about the research, Sandberg pointed to the scale of the shift.

“A  $900  billion expense shock—visible across models built by  15,000 sell‑side analysts—shows just how dramatically market expectations can pivot when policy, inflation, and investment priorities shift at once.”

He added, “It’s not one thing; it’s the convergence of tariffs, labor costs, and technology reinvestment, all hitting simultaneously.”

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

Ben Eklo was promoted to CFO of Optum, a division of UnitedHeathcare Group, effective Nov. 1. Eklo replaces Roger Connor, who was named CFO of Optum in May, Reuters reported. Eklo is a longtime finance executive at the company. The Optum unit includes the company’s pharmacy benefits business, along with a portfolio of in-home care programs and medical clinics, and a unit for technology and data. 

Julie Peffer was named CFO of Mission Critical Group (MCG), a power infrastructure company. Peffer brings more than three decades of experience leading financial operations and strategic growth initiatives across global organizations, including Amazon Web Services, Flowserve, Raytheon, Lennox International, and Textron. She joins MCG from BigBear.ai, where she served as CFO. 

Big Deal

KPMG’s Q3 2025 Pulse of Private Equity report provides data, trends, and outlook for private equity dealmaking across major global regions.

In the U.S., private equity investment reached a 14‑quarter high of $300.1 billion in Q3, pushing the year‑to‑date total to $827.8 billion and putting 2025 on track for a four‑year high in deal value, according to the report.

The surge was dominated by a handful of large‑scale transactions, including the $55 billion take‑private of Electronic Arts, led by  Silver Lake,  Affinity Partners,  and Saudi Arabia’s  Public Investment Fund, and the $28.2 billion acquisition of Air Lease. Investors focused heavily on high‑conviction, high‑quality assets.

Another key finding: the exit environment strengthened significantly, with the value of private equity exits already surpassing annual totals from the past three years—driven largely by a reopened IPO market and improving valuations, according to KPMG. 

Going deeper

In an episode of Wharton’s “This Week in Business” podcast, Gad Allon, Wharton professor of operations, information, and decisions, explores the current state of global supply chains and explains how emerging technologies like AI and digital twins are reshaping the way companies prepare for and manage risk in an increasingly volatile world.

Overheard

“Like rookie triathletes, many business leaders treat AI like a sprint—chasing speed, hype, and short-term wins, while expecting long-term, sustainable results. In both racing and business, success hinges on pacing yourself, building stamina, and staying focused on the long game.”

—Dennis Woodside, president and CEO of Freshworks and former Google and Dropbox executive, writes in a Fortune opinion piece titled, “I’m a CEO who’s run 18 Ironman races and the AI ROI race isn’t any different.”



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SpaceX to offer insider shares at record-setting $800 billion valuation

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SpaceX is preparing to sell insider shares in a transaction that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at as much as $800 billion, people familiar with the matter said, reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable private company. 

The details, discussed by SpaceX’s board of directors on Thursday at its Starbase hub in Texas, could change based on interest from insider sellers and buyers or other factors, said some of the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. SpaceX is also exploring a possible initial public offering as soon as late next year, one of the people said. 

Another person briefed on the matter said that the price under discussion for the sale of some employees and investors’ shares is higher than $400 apiece, which would value SpaceX at between $750 billion and $800 billion. The company wouldn’t raise any funds though this planned sale, though a successful offering at such levels would catapult it past the record of $500 billion valuation achieved by OpenAI in October.

Elon Musk on Saturday denied that SpaceX is raising money at a $800 billion valuation without addressing Bloomberg’s reporting on the planned offering of insiders’ shares. 

“SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors,” Musk said in a post on his social media platform X. 

The share sale price under discussion would be a substantial increase from the $212 a share set in July, when the company raised money and sold shares at a valuation of $400 billion. The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times earlier reported the $800 billion valuation target.

News of SpaceX’s valuation sent shares of EchoStar Corp., a satellite TV and wireless company, up as much as 18%. Last month, EchoStar had agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX for $2.6 billion, adding to an earlier agreement to sell about $17 billion in wireless spectrum to Musk’s company.

Subscribe Now: The Business of Space newsletter covers NASA, key industry events and trends.

The world’s most prolific rocket launcher, SpaceX dominates the space industry with its Falcon 9 rocket that lifts satellites and people to orbit.

SpaceX is also the industry leader in providing internet services from low-Earth orbit through Starlink, a system of more than 9,000 satellites that is far ahead of competitors including Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Leo.

Elite Group

SpaceX is among an elite group of companies that have the ability to raise funds at $100 billion-plus valuations while delaying or denying they have any plan to go public. 

An IPO of the company at an $800 billion value would vault SpaceX into another rarefied group — the 20 largest public companies, a few notches below Musk’s Tesla Inc. 

If SpaceX sold 5% of the company at that valuation, it would have to sell $40 billion of stock — making it the biggest IPO of all time, well above Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion listing in 2019. The firm sold just 1.5% of the company in that offering, a much smaller slice than the majority of publicly traded firms make available.

A listing would also subject SpaceX to the volatility of being a public company, versus private firms whose valuations are closely guarded secrets. Space and defense company IPOs have had a mixed reception in 2025. Karman Holdings Inc.’s stock has nearly tripled since its debut, while Firefly Aerospace Inc. and Voyager Technologies Inc. have plunged by double-digit percentages since their debuts.

SpaceX executives have repeatedly floated the idea of spinning off SpaceX’s Starlink business into a separate, publicly traded company — a concept President Gwynne Shotwell first suggested in 2020. 

However, Musk cast doubt on the prospect publicly over the years and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said in 2024 that a Starlink IPO would be something that would take place more likely “in the years to come.”

The Information, citing people familiar with the discussions, separately reported on Friday that SpaceX has told investors and financial institution representatives that it’s aiming for an IPO of the entire company in the second half of next year.

Read More: How to Buy SpaceX: A Guide for the Eager, Pre-IPO

A so-called tender or secondary offering, through which employees and some early shareholders can sell shares, provides investors in closely held companies such as SpaceX a way to generate liquidity.

SpaceX is working to develop its new Starship vehicle, advertised as the most powerful rocket ever developed to loft huge numbers of Starlink satellites as well as carry cargo and people to moon and, eventually, Mars.



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National Park Service drops free admission on MLK Day and Juneteenth while adding Trump’s birthday

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The National Park Service will offer free admission to U.S. residents on President Donald Trump’s birthday next year — which also happens to be Flag Day — but is eliminating the benefit for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth.

The new list of free admission days for Americans is the latest example of the Trump administration downplaying America’s civil rights history while also promoting the president’s image, name and legacy.

Last year, the list of free days included Martin Luther King Jr Day and Juneteenth — which is June 19 — but not June 14, Trump’s birthday.

The new free-admission policy takes effect Jan. 1 and was one of several changes announced by the Park Service late last month, including higher admission fees for international visitors.

The other days of free park admission in 2026 are Presidents Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Constitution Day, Veterans Day, President Theodore Roosevelt’s birthday (Oct. 27) and the anniversary of the creation of the Park Service (Aug. 25).

Eliminating Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth, which commemorates the day in 1865 when the last enslaved Americans were emancipated, removes two of the nation’s most prominent civil rights holidays.

Some civil rights leaders voiced opposition to the change after news about it began spreading over the weekend.

“The raw & rank racism here stinks to high heaven,” Harvard Kennedy School professor Cornell William Brooks, a former president of the NAACP, wrote on social media about the new policy.

Kristen Brengel, a spokesperson for the National Parks Conservation Association, said that while presidential administrations have tweaked the free days in the past, the elimination of Martin Luther King Jr. Day is particularly concerning. For one, the day has become a popular day of service for community groups that use the free day to perform volunteer projects at parks.

That will now be much more expensive, said Brengel, whose organization is a nonprofit that advocates for the park system.

“Not only does it recognize an American hero, it’s also a day when people go into parks to clean them up,” Brengel said. “Martin Luther King Jr. deserves a day of recognition … For some reason, Black history has repeatedly been targeted by this administration, and it shouldn’t be.”

Some Democratic lawmakers also weighed in to object to the new policy.

“The President didn’t just add his own birthday to the list, he removed both of these holidays that mark Black Americans’ struggle for civil rights and freedom,” said Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. “Our country deserves better.”

A spokesperson for the National Park Service did not immediately respond to questions on Saturday seeking information about the reasons behind the changes.

Since taking office, Trump has sought to eliminate programs seen as promoting diversity across the federal government, actions that have erased or downplayed America’s history of racism as well as the civil rights victories of Black Americans.

Self-promotion is an old habit of the president’s and one he has continued in his second term. He unsuccessfully put himself forwardfor the Nobel Peace Prize, renamed the U.S. Institute of Peace after himself, sought to put his name on the planned NFL stadium in the nation’s capital and had a new children’s savings program named after him.

Some Republican lawmakers have suggested putting his visage on Mount Rushmore and the $100 bill.



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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says Europe has a ‘real problem’

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon called out slow bureaucracy in Europe in a warning that a “weak” continent poses a major economic risk to the US.

“Europe has a real problem,” Dimon said Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum. “They do some wonderful things on their safety nets. But they’ve driven business out, they’ve driven investment out, they’ve driven innovation out. It’s kind of coming back.”

While he praised some European leaders who he said were aware of the issues, he cautioned politics is “really hard.” 

Dimon, leader of the biggest US bank, has long said that the risk of a fragmented Europe is among the major challenges facing the world. In his letter to shareholders released earlier this year, he said that Europe has “some serious issues to fix.”

On Saturday, he praised the creation of the euro and Europe’s push for peace. But he warned that a reduction in military efforts and challenges trying to reach agreement within the European Union are threatening the continent.

“If they fragment, then you can say that America first will not be around anymore,” Dimon said. “It will hurt us more than anybody else because they are a major ally in every single way, including common values, which are really important.”

He said the US should help.

“We need a long-term strategy to help them become strong,” Dimon said. “A weak Europe is bad for us.”

The administration of President Donald Trump issued a new national security strategy that directed US interests toward the Western Hemisphere and protection of the homeland while dismissing Europe as a continent headed toward “civilizational erasure.”

Read More: Trump’s National Security Strategy Veers Inward in Telling Shift

JPMorgan has been ramping up its push to spur more investments in the national defense sector. In October, the bank announced that it would funnel $1.5 trillion into industries that bolster US economic security and resiliency over the next 10 years — as much as $500 billion more than what it would’ve provided anyway. 

Dimon said in the statement that it’s “painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing.”

Investment banker Jay Horine oversees the effort, which Dimon called “100% commercial.” It will focus on four areas: supply chain and advanced manufacturing; defense and aerospace; energy independence and resilience; and frontier and strategic technologies. 

The bank will also invest as much as $10 billion of its own capital to help certain companies expand, innovate or accelerate strategic manufacturing.

Separately on Saturday, Dimon praised Trump for finding ways to roll back bureaucracy in the government.

“There is no question that this administration is trying to bring an axe to some of the bureaucracy that held back America,” Dimon said. “That is a good thing and we can do it and still keep the world safe, for safe food and safe banks and all the stuff like that.”



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