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$1.8 trillion deficit revealed during ‘pointless and wasteful government shutdown,’ budget watchdog says

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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Washington, D.C.’s leading nonpartisan budget watchdog, has sharply criticized the recent government shutdown as “pointless and wasteful” while unveiling the staggering $1.8 trillion federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025. This fiscal gap, reported by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in its Monthly Budget Review, reflects ongoing concerns about the nation’s fiscal path amid political gridlock. The disclosure comes as President Donald Trump touts rapid economic growth and tariff-driven stimulus as the solution to America’s ballooning $37.8 trillion debt, with most economists warning that the tariffs are really functioning as a tax on the consumer or on capital.

According to CRFB President Maya MacGuineas, the government’s estimated borrowing for the fiscal year isn’t exactly growing, but that’s the cause for concern. “While the deficit didn’t rise from last year, it didn’t fall either, and we continue to borrow far too much. Our national debt is about the size of the entire U.S. economy and will exceed its highest ever record as a share of the economy—set just after World War II—in short order.” MacGuineas noted that the U.S. is on track to borrow nearly $2 trillion per year for the next decade. “How can anyone think this is sustainable?”

Reopening the government without attaching new borrowing strings should be a priority, the watchdog urged. In addition, CRFB called for extending the discretionary spending caps that have helped manage spending over the past two years and recommended enforcing a “Super PAYGO” rule—requiring $2 in offsets for every $1 of new spending or tax cuts—to encourage fiscal responsibility.

MacGuineas also emphasized the pressing need to address long-term entitlement program insolvencies, specifically Medicare and Social Security trust funds, which face financial depletion without reform within roughly seven years. To instill fiscal discipline, the CRFB proposed establishing a fiscal commission tasked with reducing deficits to 3% of GDP, an ambitious but necessary goal given the current debt trajectory.

“The tragedy of the failure of governance we are witnessing,” MacGuineas asserted, is that political leaders have not been able to overcome their differences to do the hard budgeting work required. Without change, she warned, the United States risks losing its status as a global superpower.

The $1.8 trillion deficit faced last fiscal year reflects the ongoing challenges of balancing spending with revenues amid rising costs for healthcare, social programs, and national defense, alongside tax policies (namely, a reluctance to raise them) that limit revenue growth. The CRFB’s analysis paints a cautionary picture that stresses the urgency for bipartisan cooperation in Congress to enact sustainable fiscal policies.

Dalio’s diagnosis

The CRFB is far from alone in fretting about the deficit, as many top voices in finance have long urged the government to get its fiscal house in order. One of the most prominent is hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio, who has been skeptical of President Trump’s claims that, through “record growth,” the nation can essentially grow itself out of its $37 trillion debt load.

The Bridgewater Associates founder has studied nearly 50 major debt cycles and warns that prosperity fueled by rising debt is always temporary. In his 2018 book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, Dalio cautioned that leaders mistake prosperity for immunity, and income must consistently outpace debt service costs. Current CBO projections actually forecast debt held by the public will swell to 118% by 2035, and net interest payments will climb as a share of economic output.

Of late, noting gold’s series of record-setting highs throughout 2025, Dalio has said that it makes sense when you look at the debt situation. At the Greenwich Economic Forum in October, Dalio urged investors to allocate around 15% of their portfolios to gold, saying the metal’s surge reflects a shift away from debt assets and fiat currencies, reminding him of the 1970s. He linked it to rising global debt levels—especially America’s $37.8 trillion burden—and he noted that many central banks are increasing their gold reserves, highlighting an ongoing “change in the monetary order.”

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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Macron warns EU may hit China with tariffs over trade surplus

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French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

“I’m trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus isn’t sustainable because they’re killing their own clients, notably by importing hardly anything from us any more,” Macron told Les Echos newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

“If they don’t react, in the coming months we Europeans will be obliged to take strong measures and decouple, like the US, like for example tariffs on Chinese products,” he said, adding that he had discussed the matter with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Macron has just returned from a three-day state visit in China, where he pressed for more investment as Paris seeks to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. France’s goods trade deficit with China reached around €47 billion ($54.7 billion) last year, according to the French Treasury. Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus with the EU swelled to almost $143 billion in the first half of 2025, a record for any six-month period, according to data released by China earlier this year.

Tensions between France and China escalated last year after Paris backed the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing retaliated by imposing minimum price requirements on French cognac, sparking fears among pork and dairy producers that they could be targeted next.

‘Life or Death’

Macron said the US approach to China was “inappropriate” and had worsened Europe’s position by diverting Chinese goods toward the EU market.

“Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry,” Macron said, while noting that Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — doesn’t entirely share France’s stance.

In addition to Europe needing to become more competitive, the European Central Bank too has a role to play in strengthening the EU’s single market, Macron said, arguing that monetary policy should take growth and jobs into account, not just inflation, he said.

He also said the ECB’s decision to continue selling the government bonds it holds risks pushing up long-term interest rates and weighing on economic activity.

“Europe must — and wants to — remain a zone of monetary stability and credible investment,” Macron said.



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